tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah I was surprised he went "light" and "not amounting to much." Almost every system has been juiced, even weak lows. 2-3 inches is a BIG deal. Maybe he is referencing the backside changeover.......which for many would be light. I have been telling friends for days I thought that would be a good snow, but my gut was telling me for Kentucky and the OH Valley. Trends for the last couple of systems has been further south and east. Makes me wonder about the one late weekend. THAT air mass is so much colder & heavier than the one for the next couple of days (which isn't anything to sneeze at) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You know you are grasping at straws when you are looking at the 84 hour NAM. With that said, it has light to moderate precip breaking out in west TN with cold enough 850's, and temps in the mid 30s. This run would likely do well for west and central TN, and especially parts of KY. (if extrapolated) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You know you are grasping at straws when you are looking at the 84 hour NAM. With that said, it has light to moderate precip breaking out in west TN with cold enough 850's, and temps in the mid 30s. This run would likely do well for west and central TN, and especially parts of KY. (if extrapolated) It looks like the PV is further south too with the NAM. If we had that and snow cover on the ground we would have a better chance of going below zero which I know you wouldn't like lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It will be interesting to watch the next week play out. It will also be nice to make a run at 50 after the frigid weather moves through! 50 will feel like 60 after we have what is about coming through. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 dont look now but the GFS is more amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0z GFS...Sun/Mon Very strong frontal passage w/ .5-.75 qpf. Looks like the cold air catches the moisture. Notice at 102 that energy rotating under the base...it swings up and catches the front ...would phase if one sped up or the other slowed down. Eventually, it gets pulled in anyway. Really close to a significant event IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0z GFS...Sun/Mon Very strong frontal passage w/ .5-.75 qpf. Looks like the cold air catches the moisture. Notice at 102 that energy rotating under the base...it swings up and catches the front ...would phase if one sped up or the other slowed down. Eventually, it gets pulled in anyway. Really close to a significant event IMO. Yeah that was a good run for the E Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Did anyone see the individuals for the GFS at 18z? Many showed a nice 2-3 inch snowfall behind the arctic front. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Did anyone see the individuals for the GFS at 18z? Many showed a nice 2-3 inch snowfall behind the arctic front. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Believe that's from the clipper diving in the Valley,some runs it's there others it's not,especially on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 I believe we need a thread for the Sun/Mon event. Looking over the 0z Euro text, it seems to agree with 0z/6z GFS idea of 2 to 3 inches of snow across much of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I believe we need a thread for the Sun/Mon event. Looking over the 0z Euro text, it seems to agree with 0z/6z GFS idea of 2 to 3 inches of snow across much of TN. Probably wouldn't hurt. Especially if 12z suites come in any further SE with the track. #fingerscrossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looked at the GFS for BNA and the QPF'S are up,.80 now.The E/esm looked drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Watching that cold air pivot down the northern plains towards the SE is quite impressive on the 18z NAM. edit: Record low for KTRI Jan 7 is 5...we will make a run at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Excerpt drom MRX this evening regarding Sunday through Thursday next week...Excellent write-up. Begin Quote.......... .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WE ARE SQUARELY BETWEEN TWOSYSTEMS...THE WINTER STORM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT SYSTEMDUE IN ON SUNDAY. AFTER THE ONE ON SUNDAY...WE GO INTO THE DEEPFREEZE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN A QUICK CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVECOMES RACING INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST.THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN RAINSMOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGEON SUNDAY IS PRETTY PAWLTRY...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS AHEAD OF THISFRONT. FOR THE RAIN/SNOW ON SUNDAY...IT IS THE PATTERN MUCH LIKETODAY WITH COLDER AIR COMING INTO THE REGION AND CHANGING THE RAINTO SNOW...WEST TO EAST. THE ONE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THIS SNOW WILLLINGER AROUND LONGER--THE DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES WILL BECOMING VERY LOW IN THE TROPOSPHERE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKINGTO BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS GENERATED. THIS ISN`T DEEPENOUGH TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN THE MODELS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKETHE SLIGHTEST LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS. THIS ALSO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LONG DURATION UPSLOPEEVENT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ANDMONDAY NIGHT--NOT THE CLASSIC SETUP WITH THE MOISTURE RELATIVELYSHALLOW...BUT WITH THE DENTRITIC GROWTH ZONE SO LOW...IT SHOULDACCUMULATE STEADILY OVER THIS PERIOD. WILL WATCH FURTHER MODEL RUNSTO SEE IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS.THEN THE CONCERN TURNS TO THE EXTRMELY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOOKSLIKE IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM SUNDAYNIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--60+ HOURS BELOW FREEZING. THECLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS DUE IN BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST WILLDEPEND HEAVILY ON ITS TIMING...IF IT IS FAST...THERE WILL BE ABETTER CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...SLOWER WILL MEAN RAIN ORPOSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLYSTRONG AT THIS POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Threats are still there, but everything seems to have trended away a little worse wrt Sunday/Monday, and mid to late week too. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah, kind of a disappointing day of model watching. Around here we just have cherish each dusting and try to be content. That's what I'm doing tonight. Gonna take myself a little drive through the flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 0z Euro Dec 3rd QPF across the region for Sun/Mon storm (probably falling as snow): Tri Cities: .45* Knoxville: .45 Chattanooga: .28 Crossville: .36 Nashville: .46* Jackson: .20 Memphis: .08 Areas with * have part of that falling while surface is slightly above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I really think the temps at all levels will be crashing hard enough to see great ratios.......so much so that it will use the .05-.10 that falls as snow and turn it into 1-2 inches of fluffy snow for valley locations. The mountains will have another blizzard situation on their hands with 6-8 inches of fluff from upslope. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 12z a shift a little to the SE Edit:Actually S,this is what we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 12z a shift a little to the SE Yep, and that tiny shift significantly ups the snow output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yep, and that tiny shift significantly ups the snow output. Yeah, like it hope it trends a bit more,believe by the 0z tonight its gonna be locked in if not now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Def.more help with the vort pulling colder air dowN and like Stove stated the sn totals will go up.My text is showing Nashvile getting DOWN to -3.1F on the 6th now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 For what it's worth, it looks like the 12z GFS takes the low through Corinth Mississippi while the 12z NAM takes it through Jonesboro Arkansas, the NAM seems about 6 hours faster than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Was reading where some Met in Ky said about Sun event "This is not going to be a deep area of low pressure and these waves often end up flatter than forecast because the models tend to underplay the eastward push of arctic air behind them"..went on and said maybe 2 inches on the backside of the front..Really don't understand that statement but I'm no met either..lol..Anyway's hope today's runs keep trending south and become's stronger.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow "squalls" so to speak once the front pushes through...similar to what we just had yesterday evening and last night that might add to any accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Here are the snow totals for the 12z American models Sun/Mon (11:1 ratio): Tri Cities: NAM 1.1 GFS 1.3 Knoxville: NAM 2.7 GFS 3.7 Chattanooga: NAM 1.1 GFS 1.7 Crossville: NAM 1.9 GFS 4.3 Nashville: NAM 1.4 GFS 3.8 Jackson: NAM 2.0 GFS 1.9 Memphis: NAM 1.5 GFS 1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Great post Stove. Thanks for hooking up such a large section of our board. It's hard for me to envision a scenario where Memphis and Chattanooga get more snow than KTRI though. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 David Aldrich thinking 3-5 for the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.