Stovepipe Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 12z GFS certainly got very interesting for this time frame. Now has LP in the Florida Panhandle and a fair amount of moisture with favorable 850s for a decent part of the 1-40 corridor. Verbatim, East Tennessee, especially 40 and points north, might have a shot at 2-4 inches if the GFS is even in the ball park. Lawdy mercy, a model actually trending better inside of 100 hours? Where is my fainting couch?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I can't say this is a "trend" on the GFS, but more like it sniffed something completely different. If the Euro jumps on board, it might be go time for some of us. To be honest, I had almost given up on this time frame (after feeling like I was captaining the ship for what felt like weeks) and the BIG jump by the GFS isn't enough to completely draw me back in, but it does look more like the UKMET, so it's not totally on an island here. If it keeps the same look at 0z tonight, I will definitely be hooked back in. At this point, I have to view it as a hiccup for now. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Lawdy mercy, a model actually trending better inside of 100 hours? Where is my fainting couch?! I was thinking exactly the same thing. It may be on crack, but it's almost a miracle that something actually has, however briefly, possibly went right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looks like the 0z Euro from last night gives KTRI .26 as snow (with good ratios this could be close to 3 inches). It gives Knoxville .09 as snow, and now the 12z GFS looks to give a coating an inch or two pretty much from Nashville east, north of I-40. Combine that with a good low placement on the Ukie and maybe we have something here for some on our subforum for our little Jan 2nd storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS 12Z today might be too far south for Thursday, but I like it at least finding the system. Middle and Eastern Tennessee may turn out more like the Euro; rain ending before it is cold enough. Plateau might get a dusting at the very end. Smokies should get sticking snow as well. Except for TRI (higher than BNA/TYS/CHA) I'm thinking all rain lower elevations central/east Tenn. My reasoning is based on the event still 72-84 hours out; otherwise, I'd probably trust the GFS more inside 60 hours. WRF/NAM is way too far south but it is not the goto model until 48 hours anyway. Euro is my pick central/east, but I think a little colder solution is prudent west and north. West Tennessee and Kentucky I forecast some mixed precip. Might even be mainly snow if the back energy is strong enough before moisture ejects east with the main/front energy. BTW thanks for the welcome comments in a couple other threads. And enjoy the snow showers today over Graceland, MEM and Western Tenn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS 12Z today might be too far south for Thursday, but I like it at least finding the system. Middle and Eastern Tennessee may turn out more like the Euro; rain ending before it is cold enough. Plateau might get a dusting at the very end. Smokies should get sticking snow as well. Except for TRI (higher than BNA/TYS/CHA) I'm thinking all rain lower elevations central/east Tenn. My reasoning is based on the event still 72-84 hours out; otherwise, I'd probably trust the GFS more inside 60 hours. WRF/NAM is way too far south but it is not the goto model until 48 hours anyway. Euro is my pick central/east, but I think a little colder solution is prudent west and north. West Tennessee and Kentucky I forecast some mixed precip. Might even be snow back energy is strong enough before moisture ejects east with the main/front energy. BTW thanks for the welcome comments in a couple other threads. And enjoy the snow showers today over Graceland, MEM and Western Tenn! Thanks for your comments Jeff. The 0z Euro text data gave TRI .26 inches and TYS .09 of snow and this current model run 12z looks to be moving further south. Will be interesting to follow from here on in, but cold chasing moisture rarely works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Thanks for your comments Jeff. The 0z Euro text data gave TRI .26 inches and TYS .09 of snow and this current model run 12z looks to be moving further south. Will be interesting to follow from here on in, but cold chasing moisture rarely works out. Amazingly, BNA and TYS both fair a little better on this 12z run. Each gets about 3 inches if the text output is taken literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I posted about the ukie in the southeast thread. It might score the coup here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I had never really given up on this system but I was never really enthused about it either. It's amazingly what can happen when a shortwave can dig a few hundred more miles southward. It can mean the difference between nothing and 2-4 for somebody in TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Jma looks like a big Tennessee hit. Its been consistent with a ukie like solution as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Jma looks like a big Tennessee hit. Its been consistent with a ukie like solution as well. No kidding. The JMA is juiced. Jeff, appreciate your comments as well. They add a lot to the board. Well, looks like two events to track. Thursday and Monday should keep us all busy. I think I am getting ready to get the model suite from AmWx. Well, we'll see how the 0z models look. The Thursday event should be moving into the NAM's wheelhouse by the AM. I am actually pretty excited about the cold potential next week. Going to need a thread if that is the case. Looks like middle TN could see measurable snow for two events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I wonder what to make of the Euro for KTRI Carvers.................? 0z had .26 all snow shown, but 12z shows a further south track, but only .10 shown as all snow. This snapshot for the period just prior to the all snow text data: FRI 06Z 03-JAN 2.7 -2.4 1003 99 98 0.47 540 538 Looks like the 850's are sufficiently cold enough and the surface temp isn't too far off. I wonder if any of that .47 falls as snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hearing the Euro ENS ticked south of the OP, would have to think this helps parts of TN if we are not done trending. Can anyone confirm? Perhaps the gentleman sitting in a Colorado airport has a moment to look............lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ens def looking pretty, I'd post it but on phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ens def looking pretty, I'd post it but on phone tease..............j/k. we will patiently wait for you to let us in on what you see later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ens def looking pretty, I'd post it but on phone Reb do you have the TapaTalk app? It now has built in image hosting so you can easily post pics to the forum from your phone FYI. It's better for viewing the forum than a mobile browser too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 18z has more dig compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 surface doesn't look as good, but the consistency of a stronger southern wave looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hug the ukie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 18z did indeed go back to meek and mild with this one. Snow in the air but not much else. The fact that the models are so floppy within 100 is amazing to me. Hell, 5 years ago if the GFS could ever get it inside of 120, it was a pretty good bet. Now granted. between 204 and 384 it usually showed about 50 inches of snow in the SE, but once it got a threat within a few days it seems like it was pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wonder what to make of the Euro for KTRI Carvers.................? 0z had .26 all snow shown, but 12z shows a further south track, but only .10 shown as all snow. This snapshot for the period just prior to the all snow text data: FRI 06Z 03-JAN 2.7 -2.4 1003 99 98 0.47 540 538 Looks like the 850's are sufficiently cold enough and the surface temp isn't too far off. I wonder if any of that .47 falls as snow?? You know, to me looks like a dry slot. That feature will move around quite a bit as you know, and might not be modeled well until the potential event. MRX has been pretty quiet on both events so IDK. They have a good track record w/ being conservative. So, I'll roll w/ them and temper my excitement. Just now getting back to read everything. I'll take that slp position any day of the week on the Euro in regards to the Jan. 6th event. edit: We may be talking two different days now that I think about it. My response was in reference to Tuesday, next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 WxSouth w/ a FB post about the upcoming events Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z NAM is showing Thursdays system tap the GOM @ 63. More moisture available than 18z. Good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Running out of time on this one, and I am not feeling what Robert is feeling. I don't see the southern system remaining strong enough, or becoming strong enough until offshore to do us any good in east TN. I would like to be wrong, and I hate disagreeing with Robert, but I just can't see it. It looks to me to be moisture starved with the northern feature and is still Miller Bish, which just doesn't help us most times. Perhaps the 0z models can reel me back in, 12z runs were certainly a BIG jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z NAM qpf...System appears to be a little more robust than 18z. 0z NAM 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Running out of time on this one, and I am not feeling what Robert is feeling. I don't see the southern system remaining strong enough, or becoming strong enough until offshore to do us any good in east TN. I would like to be wrong, and I hate disagreeing with Robert, but I just can't see it. It looks to me to be moisture starved with the northern feature and is still Miller Bish, which just doesn't help us most times. Perhaps the 0z models can reel me back in, 12z runs were certainly a BIG jump.I think we can trend this to a light snow event. Especially looking at the ukie. Which a couple inches would be a win in my book from what we thought this was going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I have never seen this as a major event. But if we can squeeze out an inch or two, I'll take it. The 0z loop is substantially different than the 18z. The GOM gets tapped every so slightly. We'll see. Really not in the NAM's wheelhouse yet, anyway. Interesting to see it get a bit juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 MRX has finally bit and it's less than 72 hours til it could be starting, I think it reasonable to start a thread for the potential light accumulating snow for basically all of Tennessee, Southern Kentucky, and far N. Alabama. To me, the sudden emergence of all these threads leaves things a bit cluttered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Sunday/Monday...Read the post. I think it will be more than light, but maybe not here. Somebody is going to get dumped on by that system IMO. Most likely north and west. Lots of energy w/ that system. I think it digs and roars up the Apps. Maybe blizzard conditions in the northwest quadrant. Snow will stay with this one. Wherever it lays down snow is going well below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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