Stovepipe Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z Euro ensembles look pretty dang good across the TN Valley. I really hope west and middle TN can cash in. Here's Nashville: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's looking like one nasty ice storm in the Valley.I've been watching the heights fall all day on the models today.The question should also be,do the models even have a handle on the low level cold pool?That's some cold air being filtered down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 18Z FEB28 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKFRI 18Z 28-FEB 8.0 1.0 1020 21 29 559 542 SAT 00Z 01-MAR 3.5 1.7 1018 46 93 0.00 560 546 SAT 06Z 01-MAR 3.4 0.0 1021 78 99 0.01 562 545 SAT 12Z 01-MAR 3.3 1.9 1022 86 66 0.00 565 548 SAT 18Z 01-MAR 10.9 3.3 1023 63 43 0.00 571 552 SUN 00Z 02-MAR 9.4 4.6 1021 84 35 0.00 573 555 SUN 06Z 02-MAR 8.8 6.4 1021 93 37 0.01 573 555 SUN 12Z 02-MAR 9.7 8.0 1020 95 51 0.07 571 555 SUN 18Z 02-MAR 7.8 7.9 1020 95 64 0.11 571 555 MON 00Z 03-MAR 1.5 8.3 1018 93 94 0.20 569 554 MON 06Z 03-MAR 0.2 5.7 1019 95 98 0.99 567 552 MON 12Z 03-MAR -2.7 0.5 1021 94 99 0.43 561 545 MON 18Z 03-MAR -3.4 -0.7 1025 87 64 0.01 560 541 TUE 00Z 04-MAR -5.6 1.5 1026 91 14 0.01 561 541 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 18Z FEB28 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKFRI 18Z 28-FEB 10.8 1.2 1018 42 78 561 546 SAT 00Z 01-MAR 7.8 0.4 1015 74 88 0.01 559 546 SAT 06Z 01-MAR 6.8 3.3 1017 84 51 0.00 565 551 SAT 12Z 01-MAR 6.8 3.3 1019 91 37 0.01 570 554 SAT 18Z 01-MAR 11.9 6.5 1021 84 30 0.00 574 557 SUN 00Z 02-MAR 11.6 8.4 1018 95 24 0.01 575 559 SUN 06Z 02-MAR 12.7 9.1 1018 98 37 0.04 575 560 SUN 12Z 02-MAR 10.1 9.2 1019 97 36 0.13 573 558 SUN 18Z 02-MAR 5.0 9.3 1020 92 68 0.11 572 556 MON 00Z 03-MAR 0.9 9.2 1019 92 99 0.32 570 555 MON 06Z 03-MAR 0.0 5.9 1020 94 98 0.86 567 551 MON 12Z 03-MAR -6.1 1.3 1023 91 56 0.21 562 544 MON 18Z 03-MAR -2.8 1.1 1027 84 37 0.01 564 543 TUE 00Z 04-MAR -4.0 2.7 1027 87 14 0.01 565 544 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 WHOA the 12z Euro says "well maybe temps WILL be cold enough for snow after all." The 850 temps support this too so it's not one of those LOL EURO CLOWNZ cases. The ensembles have hinted at this for a few days now. It'll be interesting to see if the OP keeps it at 0z or even expands it eastward. Interesting Stove.I just got time to look at the Euro.It crashes the 850's faster than the GFS.Tonight's 0z runs should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I really hope the West side of the Valley gets a big snow, especially the snow starved middle Tennessee areas. I'd even take a cold rain here if it helped you guys get snow. As much as I love snow, I'm above normal on the year by about 3-4 inches. Knoxville is almost double their new normal and I think Tri is near or above normal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Interesting Stove.I just got time to look at the Euro.It crashes the 850's faster than the GFS.Tonight's 0z runs should be interesting You've got the best model on the planet showing 4 inches of snow for both deterministic and ensemble mean, 49 of 51 members showing accumulating snow, most of those members are above 2 inches, and 11 are big dogs. If middle TN doesn't get snow next week I don't know what to think anymore. Good luck, we're all counting on you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z Euro ensembles look pretty dang good across the TN Valley. I really hope west and middle TN can cash in. Here's Nashville: What do they look like for kbmx for the mid week system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thanks guys.It does annoy me to watch you guys get excited all the time and us over here say WTF is going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 What do they look like for kbmx for the mid week system I only have access to that data at work sadly so I can't check right now. I think we have a few other people around here that can answer that for you though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BMX LAT= 33.17 LON= -86.75 ELE= 758 12Z FEB28 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKFRI 12Z 28-FEB -1.1 3.1 1020 63 7 0.00 561 545 FRI 18Z 28-FEB 10.8 4.0 1020 33 58 0.00 564 547 SAT 00Z 01-MAR 7.3 4.4 1019 60 84 0.00 564 549 SAT 06Z 01-MAR 6.0 3.7 1021 76 86 0.05 566 548 SAT 12Z 01-MAR 5.8 5.1 1023 76 36 0.00 572 553 SAT 18Z 01-MAR 13.3 6.5 1024 59 26 0.01 576 557 SUN 00Z 02-MAR 11.8 7.3 1022 83 13 0.00 578 560 SUN 06Z 02-MAR 7.9 9.6 1022 89 14 0.00 580 561 SUN 12Z 02-MAR 6.1 11.2 1021 90 28 0.00 579 561 SUN 18Z 02-MAR 19.5 9.5 1020 47 21 0.00 578 562 MON 00Z 03-MAR 15.3 9.9 1015 68 26 0.00 575 563 MON 06Z 03-MAR 13.6 12.0 1014 83 40 0.00 572 560 MON 12Z 03-MAR 9.7 8.0 1014 98 35 0.18 568 557 MON 18Z 03-MAR 6.5 3.3 1020 61 32 0.02 565 549 TUE 00Z 04-MAR 4.8 2.8 1022 53 6 0.00 567 549 TUE 06Z 04-MAR -0.5 6.1 1024 59 11 0.00 568 549 TUE 12Z 04-MAR -1.7 5.3 1024 58 15 0.00 566 547 TUE 18Z 04-MAR 11.4 4.1 1022 52 14 0.00 566 547 WED 00Z 05-MAR 9.9 2.5 1020 75 46 0.00 564 548 WED 06Z 05-MAR 4.4 2.7 1021 91 41 0.00 564 547 WED 12Z 05-MAR 2.2 3.8 1022 88 36 0.00 566 548 WED 18Z 05-MAR 13.7 4.7 1021 48 27 0.00 566 549 THU 00Z 06-MAR 10.1 3.7 1018 66 42 0.00 564 549 THU 06Z 06-MAR 9.2 3.8 1017 57 86 0.00 563 549 THU 12Z 06-MAR 5.2 3.4 1016 95 100 0.23 560 547 THU 18Z 06-MAR 3.6 -0.2 1017 96 99 0.26 557 544 FRI 00Z 07-MAR 1.8 -1.8 1017 99 100 0.35 554 540 FRI 06Z 07-MAR 3.9 -1.2 1017 97 96 0.25 555 541 FRI 12Z 07-MAR 3.8 1.9 1018 96 90 0.03 559 544 I only have access to that data at work sadly so I can't check right now. I think we have a few other people around here that can answer that for you though. Like your chances late in the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I really hope the West side of the Valley gets a big snow, especially the snow starved middle Tennessee areas. I'd even take a cold rain here if it helped you guys get snow. As much as I love snow, I'm above normal on the year by about 3-4 inches. Knoxville is almost double their new normal and I think Tri is near or above normal too. I believe we are actually below normal by a couple of inches. I will check after supper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thanks so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I believe we are actually below normal by a couple of inches. I will check after supper. The entire winter average is 13.3 for Tri, I think you guys are around 11.5 inches at the airport and I can't imagine you don't average around 2+ inches for March/April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yikes, ice storm coming for a lot of central/western TN, looks nasty whatever model you choose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The entire winter average is 13.3 for Tri, I think you guys are around 11.5 inches at the airport and I can't imagine you don't average around 2+ inches for March/April. True...and the airport has actually has less snow than my house. Also, the TRI is the new average. We used to be 16-17 which is probably more accurate. The 90s were terrible on snow totals, abnormally so. Need to roll that decade off the books. Looking forward to talking WX this weekend. Couple of good events to track. Might be time for a thread for the ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 True...and the airport has actually has less snow than my house. Also, the TRI is the new average. We used to be 16-17 which is probably more accurate. The 90s were terrible on snow totals, abnormally so. Need to roll that decade off the books. Looking forward to talking WX this weekend. Couple of good events to track. Might be time for a thread for the ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yikes, ice storm coming for a lot of central/western TN, looks nasty whatever model you choose... Thats insane..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yikes, ice storm coming for a lot of central/western TN, looks nasty whatever model you choose... Is that honestly indicating over an inch of freezing rain for Nashville? North of town it will be worse. I hope that is over doing it; we should now more later tonight right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Is that honestly indicating over an inch of freezing rain for Nashville? North of town it will be worse. I hope that is over doing it; we should now more later tonight right? Yep, I would guess only half for actual accretion. Euro was only about 0.6" of precip as something frozen, so still a lot, the GFS is the furthest south, if the system ticks north it would be less precip and warmer. But considering it starts in a little over 48 hours the 0z runs tonight will be telling. Surprised there is not more WSWatches up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just have to see how the trends go, as of now it's leaning more white than Ice the further North and West you go. All models were colder today, look at the Euro, it showed a nice snow, likely on top of some ice in Northern to Western Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Is that honestly indicating over an inch of freezing rain for Nashville? North of town it will be worse. I hope that is over doing it; we should now more later tonight right? Yes.But i'm not sure to be honest.The low level cloud cover thins out Sat on the GFS around 6 at night,this should be enough for some radiational cooling,before it fills back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 'Bout time for one of you folks from the west side of the Plateau to pull the trigger and start a thread for this baby. Plenty of model support. Be sure to tag it...makes it easier to search for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Though temps are marginal, 0z Euro continues to portray a significant storm Thurs and Fri next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 0z GFS finally found the March 6-7 storm. Still warm, but it is there riding up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 How close are temps on the 12z Euro for hr 48? Nice track but warm. Have to think someone sees some flakes under that low, even if just the mountains.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The Euro continues to show a severe threat on the 12th,just an idea DP'S-60 K index-some parts are 40-42 Sweat 300-350+ TT's 52-54 showalter -2 to -3 Also in some parts of the valley surface cape 750-1000 300mb winds 90-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 lol...EPS 6-contour TN/KY line..The sweat in parts of Ky 900-1000..wow.What a dynamical storm a severe beast.With some decent wrap around snow.If you wanna see a storm this is it..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 lol...EPS 6-contour TN/KY line..The sweat in parts of Ky 900-1000..wow.What a dynamical storm a severe beast.With some decent wrap around snow.If you wanna see a storm this is it..lol What? The max SWEAT for 4/27/11 and 4/3/74 were in the range of 550-650, pretty sure there's an error there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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