Mr Bob Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Once the again, the CMC products think we are actually near Duluth instead of 35N; the 12z GFS with single digits on Tuesday morning and the Euro once again feeding us bitter morsels of reality with nothing except the far NW corner of TN and KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I also want to say, as there has been quite a bit of discussion about Euro clown maps this season, that I don't agree at all that these maps show snow for all precip that falls when the surface is freezing. If you look closely at the WxBell 850 temp maps and clowns, the clown snow lines match up nearly perfectly with the 850 freezing temp lines. They aren't a perfect indicator obviously, 10:1 ratio snow is a loose approximation, and sleet may not be factored in, but the clowns to me have been a nice general guide to snow coverage. For the two or three storms that panned out here they weren't even that overblown on the totals. I know some people regularly bash the clowns as being ridiculous and almost useless, but I'll go on the record saying I think that notion is BS, at least for this season in this region. I can't say much to this as I only see what sometimes trickles out around this board...But they seem to correlate with what they are depicting...certainly did not seem out of place for our recent main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Sad to see that the GEM is creeping eastward with it's major ice accumulations. Now it's pretty much everyone north of 40 in East Tennessee getting .25+ which is ice storm warning criteria, and everyone West of the plateau in Tennessee getting up to .75-1 inch amounts. Also Northern Miss takes it pretty hard on the chin with 1.5+ inches of ice. Southern Kentucky also gets hit pretty hard with ice on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That said, with the LP track the GGEM is showing and the position of that 1040 hp, I don't see how it's not a frozen event for the entire Valley region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Don't look now, but the NAM is trying very hard to lay down a couple of inches of snow in east TN Friday night. Could just be the NAM being cute but 12z makes three runs in a row showing this. Edit: The RGEM is having Nunavut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NAM is a head scratcher Friday night into early Saturday. Nothing else agrees, GFS Euro RGEM, but the NAM is insists. All models lose the system over the Plains which makes sense in confluent flow there. However flow is not confluent aloft over the Valley. Is the NAM seeing something the others are missing? Or is the NAM on crack beyond 36 hours? If anything happens it'll probably just be from TRI to northwest NC. EDIT: Moisture is the problem Friday night/Saturday. All 12Z data have lift. 850 temps fall in spite of warm air advection which is lift. However nothing but the NAM has measurable precip. No moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 12z Euro certainly looks like ice to me in west and middle TN, maybe even northern plateau and TRI for Monday. Here is the snow that is salvaged once the 850 temps cool down: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12z Euro certainly looks like ice to me in west and middle TN, maybe even northern plateau and TRI for Monday. Here is the snow that is salvaged once the 850 temps cool down: Yeah the GEM came back today with .60 zr for Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 18z NAM is the 4th run in a row to show snow for tomorrow night for parts of middle and eastern TN. This time the Hi-Res is showing snow breaking out on the eastern Highland Rim, Upper Cumberland area, and northern plateau, a little farther west from previous runs. The probability of frozen precip for these areas (according to the Alan's Hi-Res maps) is 90 to 100%. Looks like 1 to 2 inches west of plateau, dusting to 1 inch east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 34 and rain forecast for here. We'll see if the NAM can pull it off. It was actually excellent with the last system, which showed it being mostly dry while the GFS showed accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z GEM drops a lot of sleet, and a fair amount of freezing rain from the Plateau and westward and then a couple of inches of snow on top of it from 40 north especially with the Monday system. If it's correct, it would be a mess across a good portion of Tennessee and Kentucky. JKL has reflected this and now has an 80% chance of a wintry mix on Monday with rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow forecast there. They say for their forecast area, there is so much model consensus it's "inevitable" that it's going to happen. The GFS is furthest NW with the precip, the Euro is around the middle of the two, with a lean towards the GFS. The NAM is closer to the GGEM but minus the snow. The NAM is just pulling in into range for the Eastern Valley and shows ZR along the TN/KY line from around Middlesboro to points south and west including Nashville. West Tennessee is getting buried with sleet on the NAM through 84 while the same areas that pick up zr are starting to see sleet accumulate. From Claiborne and West along the KY border, the NAM is showing more than .25 zr with totals approaching an inch in Northern Middle Tennessee. The zr runs down the west side of the Plateau and Nashville approaches .5 inches of freezing rain according to the NAM. This continues to around Jackson. The sleet is starting to accumulate on the Northern Plateau by 84 in East Tennessee, Kentucky and Nashville north, then SW to Jackson and Memphis are getting sleetpocalypsed with a large area of .75-1 inch qpf falling as sleet. Sleet is generally a 3:1 ratio, so 2-3 inches of sleet would be possible, on top of .25-.5 ice if the NAM plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The HPC is only going out to Monday morning at 8 am, but W Tennessee and most of Kentucky are already in the 60-80 percent freezing rain accumulation cone. The cold air should be invading points south and west as the day wears on. Not sure how far South and East it will go with moisture involved. But pretty much all models suggest the Western part of the Valley is in play for a big ice/sleet storm at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 24 hr .25 zr from Sunday at 8am until Monday at 8 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Holy cow !!GFS got colder,its gonna KO Memphis with ice GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z FEB28 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKFRI 12Z 28-FEB 0.1 1.1 1019 62 56 558 544 FRI 18Z 28-FEB 10.1 1.1 1017 44 64 0.00 560 546 SAT 00Z 01-MAR 6.7 0.0 1016 84 78 0.03 559 546 SAT 06Z 01-MAR 6.4 3.8 1017 89 33 0.00 565 551 SAT 12Z 01-MAR 6.8 3.9 1019 94 42 0.01 570 555 SAT 18Z 01-MAR 10.8 6.0 1021 89 31 0.01 574 557 SUN 00Z 02-MAR 10.3 8.1 1018 97 24 0.02 575 560 SUN 06Z 02-MAR 12.7 9.6 1018 98 44 0.07 575 560 SUN 12Z 02-MAR 7.4 9.1 1019 96 41 0.16 573 557 SUN 18Z 02-MAR 4.0 9.0 1019 92 52 0.08 572 556 MON 00Z 03-MAR 1.0 9.5 1017 92 98 0.35 569 556 MON 06Z 03-MAR -0.9 4.7 1019 93 99 1.08 564 550 MON 12Z 03-MAR -7.1 1.3 1024 88 55 0.06 560 542 MON 18Z 03-MAR -3.0 -0.4 1028 78 30 0.00 563 541 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB28 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKFRI 12Z 28-FEB -5.8 -1.1 1023 54 24 556 539 FRI 18Z 28-FEB 7.8 0.7 1020 20 20 0.00 558 542 SAT 00Z 01-MAR 4.1 1.9 1018 53 76 0.00 560 546 SAT 06Z 01-MAR 2.4 -0.5 1021 84 98 0.01 562 545 SAT 12Z 01-MAR 3.0 2.3 1022 88 46 0.01 566 548 SAT 18Z 01-MAR 10.9 3.5 1023 66 40 0.00 571 552 SUN 00Z 02-MAR 8.3 6.0 1021 87 33 0.00 572 555 SUN 06Z 02-MAR 8.9 7.9 1020 93 43 0.03 573 556 SUN 12Z 02-MAR 8.6 8.1 1020 96 54 0.11 571 555 SUN 18Z 02-MAR 6.2 7.9 1021 96 51 0.07 571 554 MON 00Z 03-MAR 2.6 7.2 1017 96 95 0.20 568 554 MON 06Z 03-MAR 0.7 6.4 1017 95 97 0.49 564 551 MON 12Z 03-MAR -3.6 1.5 1019 93 99 0.37 558 543 MON 18Z 03-MAR -3.5 -2.8 1025 82 53 0.01 559 539 TUE 00Z 04-MAR -5.5 -2.2 1027 85 16 0.01 560 539 TUE 06Z 04-MAR -9.0 -0.1 1029 89 23 0.00 561 539 Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB28 * - APPROXIMATED What does this mean? 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 12Z 28-FEB -5.8 -1.1 1023 54 24 556 539 FRI 18Z 28-FEB 7.8 0.7 1020 20 20 0.00 558 542 SAT 00Z 01-MAR 4.1 1.9 1018 53 76 0.00 560 546 SAT 06Z 01-MAR 2.4 -0.5 1021 84 98 0.01 562 545 SAT 12Z 01-MAR 3.0 2.3 1022 88 46 0.01 566 548 SAT 18Z 01-MAR 10.9 3.5 1023 66 40 0.00 571 552 SUN 00Z 02-MAR 8.3 6.0 1021 87 33 0.00 572 555 SUN 06Z 02-MAR 8.9 7.9 1020 93 43 0.03 573 556 SUN 12Z 02-MAR 8.6 8.1 1020 96 54 0.11 571 555 SUN 18Z 02-MAR 6.2 7.9 1021 96 51 0.07 571 554 MON 00Z 03-MAR 2.6 7.2 1017 96 95 0.20 568 554 MON 06Z 03-MAR 0.7 6.4 1017 95 97 0.49 564 551 MON 12Z 03-MAR -3.6 1.5 1019 93 99 0.37 558 543 MON 18Z 03-MAR -3.5 -2.8 1025 82 53 0.01 559 539 TUE 00Z 04-MAR -5.5 -2.2 1027 85 16 0.01 560 539 TUE 06Z 04-MAR -9.0 -0.1 1029 89 23 0.00 561 539 Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Here is a summary of the American models' meteograms for the Monday storm: The Euro seems to be reducing the QPF a little bit each run. The NAM is now doing this as well relative to 0z. The GGEM is holding fairly consistent with it's more robust sleet and ice scenario. I believe the RGEM will tell the tale this weekend in terms of precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ice is looking more and more like the real deal for parts of the Mid South, northern Tennessee, and Kentucky from Sunday through Monday. Thankfully I don't see problems in southeast Tenn. To me ice is worse than plain rain, so it's all good here in Chatty. That said, northwest Tennessee and Kentucky could see sig ice. MEM is tricky but close to that zone. Nashville is looking at less qpf compared to points west and north. First, I'm going to really really enjoy 70 degrees over the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 WHOA the 12z Euro says "well maybe temps WILL be cold enough for snow after all." The 850 temps support this too so it's not one of those LOL EURO CLOWNZ cases. The ensembles have hinted at this for a few days now. It'll be interesting to see if the OP keeps it at 0z or even expands it eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 WHOA the 12z Euro says "well maybe temps WILL be cold enough for snow after all." The 850 temps support this too so it's not one of those LOL EURO CLOWNZ cases. The ensembles have hinted at this for a few days now. It'll be interesting to see if the OP keeps it at 0z or even expands it eastward. Bend the trend all day colder,hope it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Be the trend all day colder,hope it continues Gut feeling this gonna be an ice storm north if Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Could be, but the trend is, for once, in your favor. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Could be, but the trend is, for once, in your favor. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Would rather have rain the cold will not be deep enough for snow imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't have access to the thermal profile of the 12z euro, but per stoves comment it shows snow for you. I know the struggles with snow in northern middle TN, but to have the euro make this big of a jump is significant IMO. It's trying to sniff something out and is following the trend of other modeling. If 0z follows 12z later tonight with a similar solution and the ensembles agree, it will be game on for you guys. Hard to beat consecutive runs of the euro under 3 to 4 days, and its ensembles ........if you can get there tonight. If I were in your seat, I'd be much more optimistic. Good luck Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't have access to the thermal profile of the 12z euro, but per stoves comment it shows snow for you. I know the struggles with snow in northern middle TN, but to have the euro make this big of a jump is significant IMO. It's trying to sniff something out and is following the trend of other modeling. If 0z follows 12z later tonight with a similar solution and the ensembles agree, it will be game on for you guys. Hard to beat consecutive runs of the euro under 3 to 4 days, and its ensembles ........if you can get there tonight. If I were in your seat, I'd be much more optimistic. Good luck Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Good points we shall see. We should see WSW go up probably I-40 North in tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Pretty much all models went colder today, most with slightly less precip, still lots of sleet/zr potential across the Valley with a dangerous storm on tap from the Plateau and West. The GFS is now taking zr and sleet accumulations into the Eastern Valley areas. It had been the furthest NW of the models. Euro seems to be the only one bringing significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 WPC now has most of the region in the 20%-40% day 3 .25+ freezing rain progs. The same areas are 30-70% for .10+ ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Winter Storm Watch issued for all of the Valley region of Kentucky and NW Tennessee so far. My forecast updated to 90% freezing rain with a low of 29 for Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 WSW is out for the whole state of Ky...Don't believe i have ever seen that before and i ain't no young pup.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z Euro EPS control run agrees with the op on a snowier solution for Monday, brings the snow line even farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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