Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,597
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    DAinDC
    Newest Member
    DAinDC
    Joined

Upcoming Events


Stovepipe

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 649
  • Created
  • Last Reply

DT had an awesome write-up today about upcoming events and the Euro getting a bit lost on the Jan 3-4 event.  Anyway, if you want to read some very good discussion about the weather.  Be prepared for an education.  Here you go:

 

WxRisk

The earth circulates around his clients.So how will he spin his next disco after the 18z sees what the Euro is seeing?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the 12z NAM wants to keep the idea of a light event. Precip amounts seem to be increasing, however time of day will not help as surface temps will be marginal.

In general, the NAM at 12z is seeing around an inch or so of snow for the higher elevations of the Plateau, the Smokies, and NE TN.

Total qpf map fits by showing .1-.25 in the areas mentioned above with the exception of the very extreme me part of TN where .25+ is shown.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the 12z NAM wants to keep the idea of a light event. Precip amounts seem to be increasing, however time of day will not help as surface temps will be marginal.

In general, the NAM at 12z is seeing around an inch or so of snow for the higher elevations of the Plateau, the Smokies, and NE TN.

Total qpf map fits by showing .1-.25 in the areas mentioned above with the exception of the very extreme me part of TN where .25+ is shown.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If you don't mind I got a question. What is the temp profiles showing on the nam for nw middle tn during the event

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you don't mind I got a question. What is the temp profiles showing on the nam for nw middle tn during the event

No problem, it looks like the 12z NAM keeps the precip just off to your southeast, but b/c you are behind the front, your temps are below freezing shortly before hour 42, all the way beyond hour 72.  Between hour 42 and 60 (every 6 hours) you get .01 of snow (.04 total, BNA gets .12 which would probably be an inch or so of snow).  You guys are just on the northwest edge of the precip on this very light event.

 

If you want to look at the extracted data, a GREAT site you will find here............... http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm  .  Just use your airport code (KCKV)  You will find a LOT of text data here, and even though it only gives every 6 hours, you should find it useful to look at the various levels of the atmosphere and precip amounts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No problem, it looks like the 12z NAM keeps the precip just off to your southeast, but b/c you are behind the front, your temps are below freezing shortly before hour 42, all the way beyond hour 72.  Between hour 42 and 60 (every 6 hours) you get .01 of snow (.04 total, BNA gets .12 which would probably be an inch or so of snow).  You guys are just on the northwest edge of the precip on this very light event.

 

If you want to look at the extracted data, a GREAT site you will find here............... http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm  .  Just use your airport code (KCKV)  You will find a LOT of text data here, and even though it only gives every 6 hours, you should find it useful to look at the various levels of the atmosphere and precip amounts.

Thanks for the info, I appreciate it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nashville used to get big snows, but it does exist on the edge of what is good for East Tennessee, and what is good for West Tennessee. I prefer a good 1-40 slider that gets the whole state, but they are the rarest of events these days. 

 

I usually end up getting light upslope events that put down 1/2 to 1 inch at a time if nothing else. That's not happening this year. The event Sunday night and Monday might be a dusting. As of now the 2-3rd event looks the same. Maybe some upslope as the storm buries New England.

you should live in Nashville,we are the screw zone

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am going to Chattanooga tomorrow and won't be back here til New Years. Every time I go there during winter, it snows here.

 

Not surprisingly...

 

 

 

ANOTHER PASSING WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NORTHWEST FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST TENNESSEE. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK...SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN MOST SPOTS
LATER IN THE DAY...ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
LIQUID BY MID-MORNING OR SO...EXCEPT ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES.
ANY SNOWFALL THAT DOES OCCUR IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY
MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR AMOUNTS ALONG THE
PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PLATEAU WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This one is in the "take what you can get and be happy" category. GFS at least gives some upslope possibilities for East TN and SE Ky.

 

Around 1 inch from the N. Plateau into SE Ky and 1-2 in the Eastern areas. Other areas, up to .5 inches.

 

Mainly, if you've lived in East Tennessee long, you probably know how well you do, or don't do during upslope events. This one is better than some, but still more on the marginal side of things overall as of now.

 

snowfl10.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This one is in the "take what you can get and be happy" category. GFS at least gives some upslope possibilities for East TN and SE Ky.

 

Around 1 inch from the N. Plateau into SE Ky and 1-2 in the Eastern areas. Other areas, up to .5 inches.

 

Mainly, if you've lived in East Tennessee long, you probably know how well you do, or don't do during upslope events. This one is better than some, but still more on the marginal side of things overall as of now.

 

 

Eyeballing the 0z Euro text, it looks like TRI and the plateau could possibly squeeze out a couple of inches from this.  Chatt and Knox would probably be flizzard at best.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12z GFS certainly got very interesting for this time frame. Now has LP in the Florida Panhandle and a fair amount of moisture with favorable 850s for a decent part of the 1-40 corridor. Verbatim, East Tennessee, especially 40 and points north, might have a shot at 2-4 inches if the GFS is even in the ball park.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...