jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Maps gonna change again i'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 DT had an awesome write-up today about upcoming events and the Euro getting a bit lost on the Jan 3-4 event. Anyway, if you want to read some very good discussion about the weather. Be prepared for an education. Here you go: WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 DT had an awesome write-up today about upcoming events and the Euro getting a bit lost on the Jan 3-4 event. Anyway, if you want to read some very good discussion about the weather. Be prepared for an education. Here you go: WxRisk The earth circulates around his clients.So how will he spin his next disco after the 18z sees what the Euro is seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Free stuff on FB by Robert from WxSouth. This echoes what many of you have discussed for the past 48 hrs. Good information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 HR 84 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Its the 84 hour nam but it is much more amped than the globals with the nye storm in west Tennessee Arkansas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Last SREF run show .5" TYS..BNA...FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 More rain on the way for the for the Tennessee Valley. Increasing amounts from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Those amounts are increasing on the latest NAM. Through hour 42 it looks like that axis of heaviest rain has shifted 50 miles further to the west. Easily 2-2.5 inches for far eastern TN, over 1.5 inches for TYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Sick of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 What a waste of a nice track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Last SREF run show .5" TYS..BNA...FWIW .5 qpf or 1/2 inch of snow? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Nice little 1 inch snow as shown by the 0z NAM for northeast TN Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 sref bumped up the totals also .75 bna..tys..75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 looked at the latest NAM skew-t,it's showing some pw's 1.3 for 6 hrs starting around 3 am..then backing off to .75 the next 6 hrs,probably over doing it,this is for BNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Don't really effect east of the valley it's on the last time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looks like the 12z NAM wants to keep the idea of a light event. Precip amounts seem to be increasing, however time of day will not help as surface temps will be marginal. In general, the NAM at 12z is seeing around an inch or so of snow for the higher elevations of the Plateau, the Smokies, and NE TN. Total qpf map fits by showing .1-.25 in the areas mentioned above with the exception of the very extreme me part of TN where .25+ is shown. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarksville Snowman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looks like the 12z NAM wants to keep the idea of a light event. Precip amounts seem to be increasing, however time of day will not help as surface temps will be marginal. In general, the NAM at 12z is seeing around an inch or so of snow for the higher elevations of the Plateau, the Smokies, and NE TN. Total qpf map fits by showing .1-.25 in the areas mentioned above with the exception of the very extreme me part of TN where .25+ is shown. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk If you don't mind I got a question. What is the temp profiles showing on the nam for nw middle tn during the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 If you don't mind I got a question. What is the temp profiles showing on the nam for nw middle tn during the event No problem, it looks like the 12z NAM keeps the precip just off to your southeast, but b/c you are behind the front, your temps are below freezing shortly before hour 42, all the way beyond hour 72. Between hour 42 and 60 (every 6 hours) you get .01 of snow (.04 total, BNA gets .12 which would probably be an inch or so of snow). You guys are just on the northwest edge of the precip on this very light event. If you want to look at the extracted data, a GREAT site you will find here............... http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm . Just use your airport code (KCKV) You will find a LOT of text data here, and even though it only gives every 6 hours, you should find it useful to look at the various levels of the atmosphere and precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarksville Snowman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 No problem, it looks like the 12z NAM keeps the precip just off to your southeast, but b/c you are behind the front, your temps are below freezing shortly before hour 42, all the way beyond hour 72. Between hour 42 and 60 (every 6 hours) you get .01 of snow (.04 total, BNA gets .12 which would probably be an inch or so of snow). You guys are just on the northwest edge of the precip on this very light event. If you want to look at the extracted data, a GREAT site you will find here............... http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm . Just use your airport code (KCKV) You will find a LOT of text data here, and even though it only gives every 6 hours, you should find it useful to look at the various levels of the atmosphere and precip amounts. Thanks for the info, I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I noticed that 0z NAM went dry, like the GFS all along. It would be nice to trend INTO something this winter, instead of trending away...... lol. It's not like we are asking for much here. A tenth of an inch as snow.......that's all. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It does get odd trying to deal with it. It always snows here at least, so I have less to complain about than most of the folks to in almost every direction from here. My down year in my life here was 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It does get odd trying to deal with it. It always snows here at least, so I have less to complain about than most of the folks to in almost every direction from here. My down year in my life here was 7 inches. you should live in Nashville,we are the screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Nashville used to get big snows, but it does exist on the edge of what is good for East Tennessee, and what is good for West Tennessee. I prefer a good 1-40 slider that gets the whole state, but they are the rarest of events these days. I usually end up getting light upslope events that put down 1/2 to 1 inch at a time if nothing else. That's not happening this year. The event Sunday night and Monday might be a dusting. As of now the 2-3rd event looks the same. Maybe some upslope as the storm buries New England. you should live in Nashville,we are the screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I am going to Chattanooga tomorrow and won't be back here til New Years. Every time I go there during winter, it snows here. Not surprisingly... ANOTHER PASSING WEAKSHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OFCOLDER AIR INTO THE AREA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NORTHWEST FLOWSNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ANDTHE SMOKY MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST TENNESSEE. WITHTEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK...SOMELIGHT SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. WITHTEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN MOST SPOTSLATER IN THE DAY...ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TOLIQUID BY MID-MORNING OR SO...EXCEPT ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES.ANY SNOWFALL THAT DOES OCCUR IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANYMEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR AMOUNTS ALONG THEPEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PLATEAU WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLETHROUGH MONDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This one is in the "take what you can get and be happy" category. GFS at least gives some upslope possibilities for East TN and SE Ky. Around 1 inch from the N. Plateau into SE Ky and 1-2 in the Eastern areas. Other areas, up to .5 inches. Mainly, if you've lived in East Tennessee long, you probably know how well you do, or don't do during upslope events. This one is better than some, but still more on the marginal side of things overall as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 This one is in the "take what you can get and be happy" category. GFS at least gives some upslope possibilities for East TN and SE Ky. Around 1 inch from the N. Plateau into SE Ky and 1-2 in the Eastern areas. Other areas, up to .5 inches. Mainly, if you've lived in East Tennessee long, you probably know how well you do, or don't do during upslope events. This one is better than some, but still more on the marginal side of things overall as of now. Eyeballing the 0z Euro text, it looks like TRI and the plateau could possibly squeeze out a couple of inches from this. Chatt and Knox would probably be flizzard at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 12z GFS certainly got very interesting for this time frame. Now has LP in the Florida Panhandle and a fair amount of moisture with favorable 850s for a decent part of the 1-40 corridor. Verbatim, East Tennessee, especially 40 and points north, might have a shot at 2-4 inches if the GFS is even in the ball park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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