Upcoming Events

[1234snow]

I still haven't seen much to change my idea of this being a non-event for any lower elevation including TRI. SWVA up toward Wise will probably fair okay.

[Silas Lang]

Not expecting much from this next little system but it looks like there is a fairly large amount of moisture for being a clipper. I'm not an expert  by no means, but it seems like we barely get any precipitation out of these things. 

[bearman]

For a clipper system there seems to be an incredible amount of moisture.  Some of the rain is very hard in Middle tn.  This thing could suprise us.

[John1122]

MRX seems to think the moisture is going to slip behind the cold front. But I'm not certain that it will. JKL was yesterday but they backed off this afternoon. I'd feel a lot better if I lived about 1000 feet higher up than I do.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like cold chasing rain all the way based on observations.  Once caveat, I hold out hope that it being night and rates will give us a chance here @ TRI.  For once, an overperforming clipper...but too warm.  Ha!

 

edit: Any accumulation over one inch will be a complete bonus.

[Blue Ridge]

Drying up as we speak. 37 here. I'll be surprised to see snow from this!

 

Meanwhile, a weak squall line is moving through southern AL & MS.

[jaxjagman]

Drying up as we speak. 37 here. I'll be surprised to see snow from this!

 

Meanwhile, a weak squall line is moving through southern AL & MS.

Models never showed a squall line going through S/MS..S/AL...this basically sucked the life out of this system for yall

[John1122]

Low went more north according to JKL, so the cold didn't get pulled in as quickly. 35 here but no downward temp movement from there.

[jaxjagman]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014

   VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   RECENT MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL RUNS SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY/SIMILARITY
   THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 6/FRI. 2-21/...WITH A LARGE TROUGH PROGGED TO
   EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME -- AND THEN PERSIST THERE
   UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

   INITIALLY...SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE
   ROCKIES DAY 4...EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE START OF DAY
   5.  AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DEVELOPING SURFACE
   LOW SHIFTING NEWD FROM THE OK VICINITY EARLY TO THE MI VICINITY BY
   LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  A STRONG/TRAILING COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE OH/MID MS VALLEYS AND INTO TX WILL LIKELY
   FOCUS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR
   ADVECTING NWD SUPPORTS MODEST SURFACE-BASED CAPE. 

   ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED N
   OF THE OH VALLEY...WHILE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LIKELY REMAINS
   LIMITED TO AREAS FROM THE SRN IL/SRN INDIANA REGION SWD.  THUS...THE
   ZONE OF GREATEST JUXTAPOSITION -- FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY SWD
   ACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS -- APPEARS TO BE THE ZONE WHERE SEVERE
   RISK WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

   GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE VARIOUS
   MODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF THE
   WIND FIELD...AND DEWPOINTS AT LEAST INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
   AFOREMENTIONED AREA SUPPORTING AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED
   CAPE...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS SUFFICIENT WITH THE
   EXPECTED CONVECTIVE LINE TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A RISK AREA THIS
   FORECAST -- MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

   WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD INTO SERN
   CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...CONVECTIVE RISK
   DAY 6 WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT
   EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD TO THE WRN GULF.  WITH
   WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT...SEVERE RISK ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD
   REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED.  BEYOND DAY 6...INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
   LIMITS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL.

[jaxjagman]

Still seeing signs of some strong storms Thursday,the GFS and Euro got a tad stronger on the 12z.The 12z GFS is now showing some possible cells in the SW valley with the EHI now 1

[jaxjagman]

18Z GFS continues a severe threat for West and central.The 18z has extended the EHI to now Mid/Tn at 1/The K-index now has extended to the east side with a 33-34.sweat is now 400 into S/Ga on the east side.The upside continues

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
   DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE CENTRAL/ERN U.S. TROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH
   THE INITIAL PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   U.S. DAY 4 /THU. 2-20/.  AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
   PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS
   FORECAST TO PROGRESS QUICKLY NWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION...WHILE ALLOWING A STRONG/TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
   EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME.

   WITHIN A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...EXPECT STORMS TO
   DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON -- FROM SRN IL/ERN MO
   SSWWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...IN A LINEAR CONFIGURATION
   NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
   ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME
   RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
   EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE ROLLS EWD.  IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- MAINLY WITH EMBEDDED VORTICES
   WITHIN THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

   WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO ADVANCE MORE SLOWLY THAN IN PRIOR
   RUNS...SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST
   STATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 5 /FRI. 2-21/.  WHILE THE
   STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD SHIFT
   ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. -- WELL REMOVED FROM THE GREATER
   MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL FARTHER S -- THE STRENGTH OF THE
   FLOW FIELD ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL SPREAD EWD TO
   THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE
   DIURNALLY RE-INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

   WITH THE BOUNDARY APPEARING LIKELY TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY
   EARLY EVENING AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXPAND/PERSIST ACROSS
   THE ERN U.S. THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
   PERIOD...APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK IS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND DAY 5 OVER
   THE CONUS.

   ..GOSS.. 02/17/2014

[nrgjeff]

Thursday has potential for severe in the Mid South. At the moment, Friday diurnal timing is off farther east in the Tennessee Valley. 00Z Monday Euro has a separate piece of jet stream energy coming out of Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday, which would promote higher severe chances. 00Z GFS sent all the energy too far north, but 06Z GFS is trending toward the Euro. That southern energy is required for sig fireworks. 

[Stovepipe]

[John1122]

That looks very unpleasant for the mid-state. Early on it's looking like a straight line wind event with isolated tornadoes possible. Fitting since it's severe weather awareness week in Tennessee.

[jaxjagman]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ROUGHLY THE MS VALLEY
   REGION EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...AND FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
   LAKES SWD TO THE GULF COAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME...WITH THE ENTIRE U.S. UNDER THE
   INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS
   EXPANSION OF LONG-WAVE TROUGHING WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INTERACTION
   OF TWO SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS -- ONE ADVANCING EWD AND THEN NEWD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE A SECOND DIGS SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA
   INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE
   INITIAL/CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH -- A VERY INTENSE FEATURE PROGGED TO
   TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE MID AND UPPER MS/OH
   VALLEYS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD -- WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   FEATURE OF INTEREST WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.

   AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES/STRENGTHENS...A SURFACE LOW -- PROGGED
   INITIALLY TO LIE INVOF THE KS/MO BORDER AREA -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
   RAPIDLY NNEWD AND DEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY WITH TIME...REACHING THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS A SUB-980 MB CYCLONE BY MIDNIGHT.
   MEANWHILE...A STRONG/TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY
   LK MI SSWWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO THE WRN
   GULF COASTAL REGION BY SUNSET.  THE FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE RACING
   EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
   REGION OVERNIGHT...AND IS PROGGED TO LIE IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
   BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT
   SHOULD DRIVE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING
   THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- MAINLY IN THE
   FORM OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS -- TO AN AREA FROM ROUGHLY
   THE MS VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS.

   ...IL/ERN MO/ERN AR/LA EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
   CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
   ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS/MO AND EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...WITHIN A ZONE
   OF WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW.  BY MID
   AFTERNOON...SURFACE COLD-FRONTAL ADVANCE INTO A
   MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR SHOULD YIELD CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IN THE ZONE OF STRONG/LINEAR LOW-LEVEL ASCENT...WITH
   STORMS THEN EXPANDING BOTH NE AND SW ALONG THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY.
   GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM
   DRIVING FAST LINE MOTION...RISK FOR NUMEROUS DAMAGING GUSTS IS
   APPARENT.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
   LINE...WHILE ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR -- MAINLY NEAR
   AND S OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
   EXPECTED.

   OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS
   AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WITH ACCOMPANYING SEVERE RISK
   EXTENDING EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND SERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END
   OF THE PERIOD.

   ..GOSS.. 02/18/2014

[jaxjagman]

Looking at the 6z NAM it shows .(.ehi 1)..(K  -4) surface base cape 500 ...0-6 wind shear 80-90 kts for  the western parts of the valley, you'd have a chance of some supercells in advance of the linear line

 

Edit:If i was in the western parts to the central parts of the valley i'd keep an eye on this storm

[Stovepipe]

That's quite a frog strangler.

 

12z Euro at 6z Friday:

 

[jaxjagman]

GFS12Z, is showing the shear 0-6 for the middle to the west part of the valley 90-100kts..NW parts of the valley 110.Nasty looking line

[jaxjagman]

Forbes torcon

 

 

Thursday, Feb. 20

Looks like a severe thunderstorm and possibly tornado outbreak. Starts with isolated severe thunderstorms in the morning in extreme southeast KS, extreme northeast OK, southwest MO, northwest AR, becoming more numerous and spreading across central and south AR, central and south IL, south, central and northeast IN, west and central OH, west, central, and northeast KY, west and middle TN, north and west AL, MS, north and east AR, northeast, central, and south LA during afternoon and evening. TOR:CON - 5 west and middle TN, north MS, northwest AL; 4 west and central KY, central MS; 2 to 3 rest of area.

Thursday night: Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and a chance of a tornado spread overnight into east OH, southwest PA, west half WV, east KY, southwest VA, west NC, east TN, north and west GA, across AL, and into the FL panhandle. TOR:CON - 2 to 3 at this time

[jaxjagman]

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1006 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY THROUGH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

   VALID 190406Z - 190630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   SPREAD EWD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KY AND PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN.
   SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
   SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
   DEVELOPING OVER WRN KY. ACTIVITY IS INITIATING WITHIN ZONE OF
   DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT FORCED BY A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION AND ITS ATTENDANT 40 KT SWLY LLJ.
   A CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY /800-1000 J/KG/ MUCAPE HAS
   DEVELOPED OVER WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO SWRN KY WHERE THE LLJ HAS
   ADVECTED RICHER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MIDDLE LEVEL-LAPSE RATES BUT
   ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS MORE CAPPED
   WITH SWRN EXTENT INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN...SO SRN EXTENT OF THE MORE
   ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...GLAZING
   INFLUENCE OF ASCENT ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
   BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE CAP AND INITIATE STORMS INTO NRN PARTS OF
   WRN AND MIDDLE TN. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED HAIL
   GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 02/19/2014

[jaxjagman]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS
   INTO THE TN VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   AN INTENSE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS/SRN GREAT LAKES
   REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED LOW IN THE
   VICINITY OF WRN MO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL RAPIDLY
   INTENSIFY AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING
   THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXTENDING ROUGHLY
   ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM SRN IL INTO SRN OH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
   OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY...OH/TN VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...

   DESPITE WARMING TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW DAYS...SUBSTANTIAL SNOW
   PACK REMAINS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IL...SRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND/OH.
   WHILE THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
   WILL LEAD TO STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...THE
   LINGERING SNOW PACK WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE I-70
   CORRIDOR DUE TO A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER AND WEAK BUOYANCY
   LIMITING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND POTENTIAL.

   FURTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY...THE
   QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AND LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS
   /UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 DEG C PER KM
   AND MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J PER KG/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
   SUPPORT MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
   ADDITIONALLY...THE STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS /50+ KT JUST
   OFF THE SFC/ COUPLED WITH A FAST MOVING QLCS COULD LEAD TO
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SRN IND...PARTS OF
   WRN/CNTRL KY INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN. STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED
   SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL.

   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF
   THE SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
   AND A WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE
   JUXTAPOSED WITH BETTER KINEMATIC FIELDS AS THE SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE A DRY/WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB WHICH COULD INITIALLY HINDER
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH UNTIL AFTER DARK. BUT...STEEP LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A FAST MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL STILL POSE A
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE LINE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
   OVERNIGHT.

   ..LEITMAN/DARROW.. 02/19/2014

[nrgjeff]

Monday West Tennessee and Kentucky may pick up some ice and mixed precip. Otherwise it looks like more cold chasing rain for the rest of the Tennessee Valley. I'm so sick of ice in my service territory, but March wants to come in like a Lion.

[jaxjagman]

GFS looks like a nasty ice storm for N/MS..W/TN  on the 12z

[Stovepipe]

GFS looks like a nasty ice storm for N/MS..W/TN  on the 12z

 

12z GGEM shows a bad ice storm again as well for areas west of the plateau.

[jaxjagman]

---

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z FEB26   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
WED 12Z 26-FEB  -2.6    -7.1    1025      66      33             558     538   
WED 18Z 26-FEB   0.2    -8.6    1023      38      25    0.00     555     537   
THU 00Z 27-FEB  -1.8    -4.3    1019      40       4    0.00     554     538   
THU 06Z 27-FEB  -2.3    -3.7    1019      36       6    0.00     555     540   
THU 12Z 27-FEB  -2.8    -3.3    1019      38       8    0.00     556     541   
THU 18Z 27-FEB   5.9    -2.7    1020      29       8    0.00     557     541   
FRI 00Z 28-FEB   0.9    -0.9    1019      58       8    0.00     556     541   
FRI 06Z 28-FEB  -3.1     0.3    1020      59      26    0.00     557     542   
FRI 12Z 28-FEB  -1.4     1.4    1018      51      85    0.00     558     544   
FRI 18Z 28-FEB   7.1    -0.3    1016      47      96    0.02     559     546   
SAT 00Z 01-MAR   6.2     3.6    1013      76      58    0.03     557     546   
SAT 06Z 01-MAR   6.9     4.7    1016      95      53    0.02     564     551   
SAT 12Z 01-MAR   6.6     4.8    1018      97      30    0.01     570     555   
SAT 18Z 01-MAR  13.0     7.1    1020      85      15    0.00     574     558   
SUN 00Z 02-MAR  11.2     9.5    1019      96      25    0.01     574     559   
SUN 06Z 02-MAR   9.2     7.9    1019      97      59    0.04     575     559   
SUN 12Z 02-MAR   4.9     9.0    1020      93      44    0.06     574     558   
SUN 18Z 02-MAR   6.2    10.1    1019      92      61    0.05     573     558   
MON 00Z 03-MAR   4.8    10.3    1015      96      94    0.18     571     559   
MON 06Z 03-MAR   0.4     8.9    1016      93      98    1.80     568     555   
MON 12Z 03-MAR  -2.4     6.7    1018      91      64    0.49     564     550   
MON 18Z 03-MAR  -3.9     2.6    1022      81      71    0.02     563     546   
TUE 00Z 04-MAR  -4.1    -0.5    1025      84      98    0.03     560     540   
TUE 06Z 04-MAR  -9.0    -3.1    1029      74      35    0.01     556     535   
TUE 12Z 04-MAR -12.4    -6.0    1033      66      57    0.00     555     530   
TUE 18Z 04-MAR  -8.1    -9.3    1035      49      38    0.00     554     527   
WED 00Z 05-MAR -10.1    -8.5    1036      59      27    0.00     553     526   
WED 06Z 05-MAR -12.1    -7.8    1037      67      34    0.00     555     527   
WED 12Z 05-MAR -13.3    -8.2    1039      74      54    0.00     555     526   
WED 18Z 05-MAR  -5.0    -7.8    1038      37      71    0.00     559     530   
THU 00Z 06-MAR  -5.0    -6.4    1036      47      81    0.00     560     533   
THU 06Z 06-MAR  -5.7    -5.1    1035      57      75    0.00     561     534   
THU 12Z 06-MAR  -5.3    -6.3    1034      53     100    0.00     561     535   
FRI 00Z 07-MAR  -0.4    -0.6    1028      58      86    0.00     565     542   
FRI 12Z 07-MAR   0.1     1.3    1029      75      77    0.00     566     543

 

Memphis,real ugly.HP comes down after the storm while temps never recover for a couple days.HP alone should put them in a wind advisory as well

[jaxjagman]

GGEM for Nashville

 

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

[Stovepipe]

12z Euro is generally consistent with previous runs on the Monday storm.  Heavy rain to snow/ice/mix in west TN, maybe some brief mix in middle TN, then QPF gets light as it moves east.  Far northwest counties might have a little something on the ground to show for it but this run shows less snow accumulation.

 

I also want to say, as there has been quite a bit of discussion about Euro clown maps this season, that I don't agree at all that these maps show snow for all precip that falls when the surface is freezing.  If you look closely at the WxBell 850 temp maps and clowns, the clown snow lines match up nearly perfectly with the 850 freezing temp lines.  They aren't a perfect indicator obviously, 10:1 ratio snow is a loose approximation, and sleet may not be factored in, but the clowns to me have been a nice general guide to snow coverage.  For the two or three storms that panned out here they weren't even that overblown on the totals.  I know some people regularly bash the clowns as being ridiculous and almost useless, but I'll go on the record saying I think that notion is BS, at least for this season in this region.