Stovepipe Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 For you people that track such things, any chance of a little bit of severe action in storm #2? Looks like a decent squall line to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This will be simplistic based on this past week's discussion...point and click says 1-3" for Fri night. Have looked at very few models. From what I remember .2-.25 liquid is availble. Looks like rain during the day. Little powerhouse of enegy. Not expecting much, but who knows. Valkhorn, there you go, man. Bout all I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ain't no way I am creating a storm thread for a northern branch system...but here is the 18z NAM qpf. Anyone have a clown map for this. I can't find one that doesn't include the current storm's totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This will be simplistic based on this past week's discussion...point and click says 1-3" for Fri night. Have looked at very few models. From what I remember .2-.25 liquid is availble. Looks like rain during the day. Little powerhouse of enegy. Not expecting much, but who knows. Valkhorn, there you go, man. Bout all I got. Thanks. I know it's nothing compared to the big dog we just got, but a little fresh snow isn't a bad thing. The stuff we have will be melted/stale by Friday night If the roads are fine, maybe I'll drive up to the Smokys for a winter hike on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Highlights from the MRX weather discussion...excellent quotes. .SHORT TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY)...ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW A NICE LOBE OF Q-VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE AS WELL AS FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STRONG FORCING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION STARTING 00Z SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT FAIRLY GOOD 500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -30 TO -32 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG WITH STRONG 850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW GOOD LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION BETWEEN 00-04Z...HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE FIRST 100MB WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. I FEEL THAT THE STRONG FORCING AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP OVER-COME THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AIR TO EVENTUALLY CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE 2500 FEET...CHANGE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY TO WARRANT A WATCH FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. ............. ZONAL FLOW AFTER SUNDAY WILL KEEP AWAY ARCTIC AIR WHILE PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ONE CAVEAT IS IF A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...THEN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK RAINS WOULD RAPIDLY MELT THE SNOW AND PROVIDE SNOWMELT-ASSISTED RIVER RISES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 SWS from MRX... ...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR SPILLING BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR PULLS INTO THE REGION...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY ABOVE 2500 FEET...HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z GFS pops a lee side low and forms another coastal - looks OTS but the Carolinas, Virginia, KY, and upper TN Valley should keep an eye on this. Tnweathernut, seems like these always trend north. What do you think? Man, I really ignored this. Pretty potent little system. Disclaimer...I am not sure we see anything in terms of accumulation but the coast appears to get another storm. Is also on the Euro... We probably would be tracking this had we just not had a storm. GFS (most recent storm totals edited out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z RGEM says cold chasing rain for the clipper tomorrow. Can anyone convince me otherwise? Does pop a 993 low over the Outer Banks. Has trended stronger on most models today. It has my interest - barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 MRX was bullish earlier, I wouldn't be surprised to see it be mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS has 1-2 inch amounts in the Plateau/NE Tennessee and north areas. More in the mountains. Models have handled clippers terribly this year though, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS has 1-2 inch amounts in the Plateau/NE Tennessee and north areas. More in the mountains. Models have handled clippers terribly this year though, so who knows. Smells like a dusting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 18z RGEM says cold chasing rain for the clipper tomorrow. Can anyone convince me otherwise? Does pop a 993 low over the Outer Banks. Has trended stronger on most models today. It has my interest - barely. There are only a few ways in which I could think that this wouldn't be mostly rain. Because of the snowpack the models are overestimating the afternoon highs and low for tomorrow night. The system is delayed and we get some clear sky overnight to cool temps down before the precip gets here. The energy aloft and the surface low are much further south then modeled. I think choice number 1 would have a higher chance of happening than 2 or 3, but even that is slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS was a bit more widespread with snowfall that run, 1-1.5 from 40 north in Middle TN east of 24 and in East TN, 1.5+ over parts of the plateau and 2-3 over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 RGEM is showing between .11 and .19 qpf falling as snow tomorrow over the Plateau, .25+ over the mountains. It's been pretty consistent with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 From OHX. MID STATE GETS INTO LEFT FRONT QUAD OFUPPER JET (BEST LIFT AREA) FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE INJECTION OFCOLDER AIR AND DECENT MOISTURE PACKAGE WE COULD SEE SOMEACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. THERE`S ALSO AGOOD SHOT OF VORTICITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENSOVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 MRX made a forecast adjustment for my area Friday night. Surprised they're this bullish with a clipper, not that clippers don't sometimes go from rain to snow and produce decently for me, but this has been a tough year to forecast them in Tennessee. Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10pm. Low around 23. Southwest wind around 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Tonight GFS is creeping towards to what the Euro is showing for a possible severe threat in the Western parts of the Valley Thursday.The 0Z GFS is showing the TT's at 54...showwalter is now -4....sweat 450...MUCape..750-1000...k-30..dp's 60+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Southeast Ky from JKL. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY1205 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014...SNOW TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BEGINNING FRIDAYAFTERNOON....A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OVER KENTUCKY ONFRIDAY...CAUSING SNOW AND RAIN TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.ACCUMULATING SNOW IS MOST LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE64...WITH TEMPERATURES FURTHER SOUTH BEING TOO WARM DURING THEDAY. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATEFURTHER SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.KYZ079-080-083>088-110-113-115>120-141315-/O.EXB.KJKL.WW.Y.0016.140215T0000Z-140215T1200Z/PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-FLOYD-KNOTT-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...PRESTONSBURG...HINDMAN...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE1205 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM ESTSATURDAY.SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO THE NIGHT. ITWILL TAPER OFF LATE IN THE MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATINGSNOW LIKELY TO BE FINISHED BY SUNRISE.ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.MANY ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. VISIBILITY WILLALSO BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Morning AFD from JKL. STRONG SHORT WAVE TO CROSS ERN KY IN THIS PERIOD. INITIAL THOUGHT WASTHAT TEMPS WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR MOST OF THEAREA. HOWEVER TEMPS FOR FRI DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS WARM AS FIRSTEXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW EARLIER FOR MUCHOF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE TOTALPCPN LOOKS TO BE GREATER AS WELL WHICH WILL LEAD MOST OF THE AREA TOSEE AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. OUR MOST SWRN COUNTIES WILLLIKELY SEE THE LEAST SNOW BUT SHOULD STILL GET BETWEEN 1 AND 2INCHES. HAVE PUSHED AN ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT WITHTIMING TO COINCIDE WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD END FROM WESTTO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING FLURRIES BY SATMORNING IN THE EASTERN MTNS. THE QUIET PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED SATAFTERNOON AS THE NEXT REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SWEEPS THRU THEREGION SAT NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO ANY SNOWFALLSHOULD AMOUNT TO LITTLE MORE THAN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ADDITIONALSNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Holy heck!! Updated forecast for tonight. Rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 2am. Low around 24. Blustery, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 436 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 ...ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT... .A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLDER AIR BEHIND IT CHANGING THE RAIN TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY AS THE MOST RECENT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WISE COUNTY VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE...COULD RECEIVE UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL BY SATURDAY MORNING. TNZ012>014-035>040-067>071-073-142000- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0011.140215T0000Z-140215T1200Z/ SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER- HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT- NORTH SEVIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL... WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE... MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE... DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE 436 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY. * EVENT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. * TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF MIX WITH LIGHT SLEET IS POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADWAYS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE HAZARDOUS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 My last post of the night/morning, the MRX afd. Not sure what they were looking at that showed such robust snow totals on the 00z models, but the 06z gfs did come in with a bigger area of 2+ inch snows from this. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN428 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SHORT TERM PROBLEM EARLIERWAS SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OR FREEZING FOG. SURFACE WINDS PICKEDUP A BIT AND A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTED OVERHEAD...SO FOG HAS LIFTED FORTHE MOST PART.MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ANDCOLD FRONT...SO POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY. ALSOBUMPED UP POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING.00Z GFS AND NAM MODELS CRANKING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW MAINLYNWRN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS IS SUSPECT DUE TO HOWWARM TEMPS GET AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PLUS HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPERMOISTURE EXITS THE REGION.THUS...I STAYED WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GRIDSAND LATEST WWD GRAPHICS. COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT NWS OFFICES ONBUMPING THE WATCH AREA TO A LOW END WARNING EVENT (2 TO 6 INCHES)...AND WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REMAINING AREAS OTHERTHAN SE TN AND SW NC COUNTIES. NO CHANGE TO STARTING TIMES BUT DIDEXTEND ENDING TIME FOR WARNING AND NE TN/SW VA ADVISORY OUT TO 10 AMEST SATURDAY.OTHERWISE...TRENDED VERY CLOSE TO SIMILAR MOS TEMPS FOR TODAY ANDTONIGHT...THEN FAVORED THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR MAX TEMPS ONSATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 MRX on the bandwagon too as a WWA has gone up for the TRI area for tonight/early tomorrow. Calling for 2 to 4 inches be tomorrow morning! TNZ015>017-042-044-046-VAZ001-005-006-008-142000-/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0011.140215T0000Z-140215T1500Z/HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-NORTHWEST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-LEE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...GREENEVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...ELIZABETHTON...JONESVILLE...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON436 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO10 AM EST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENINGTO 10 AM EST SATURDAY.* EVENT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.* TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF MIX WITH LIGHT SLEET IS POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES BEFORE NOON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 850s and 540 both look good for Middle Tennessee on this event on the GFS but I guess time of day and bl temps are just too much to overcome for them, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm still not confident in more than a dusting at my location and the rest of the Valley locations. People with more elevation should fare better and should switch over quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It's crazy to think (for parts of east TN) we can have the NWS talking about a 2 to 4 inch type event (and 3-6 in the mountains) that we don't have a thread and aren't really having a discussion. I think the board in general has a fatigue factor going here...........lol. For the record, I am not on board for much of anything wintry from this little event. I just think we will have some issues with temperatures. I'd love to have a met chime in on this though. Surface temps appear to be a disaster. Do you guys think the NWS thinks the snow cover will help with surface temps and that is the reason for their WWA and WSW's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Guys, I too am surprised with the advisories and warnings. With abundent sunshine today, I expect a lot of melting and enough warming to really curtail accumulation potential tonite. I did see Bastardi's map on twitter...he had the snow line quite north of TN line. It does appear this system will really wind up for the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is a tricky system tonight. MRX is rightly concerned about temperatures in the Valley; and, it is well noted here. Back to clipper nation so Chatty will enjoy some light rain. Will Maryville magic overcome the warm layer for Maryville-Knoxville? If so I only see about a half inch, one inch max. Most precip will be light snow after midnight, but surface still above freezing. Light snow does not accumulate above 32, in contrast to the heavy snow at 34 deg. Knox looks to get below 32 close to dawn, which is when snow showers will be winding down. Good time to live vicariously from the Upper Plateau to TRI. As usual I'm thinking as much snow as MRX is up there. 850 temps forecast to fall off quickly with onset of precip. Reality check of 850 upper chart shows it is pretty dry up there; so, assumption seems reasonable. Lower level is warm and not dry, so that stubborn warm layer will hang in overnight. Models have Upper Plateau doing better than TRI, earlier drop below 32. Hope they are right about 2-3 inches for John! My gut says TRI ekes out more than models show, maybe just over 2 inches vs just under 2. TRI stays in snow showers several hours after sunrise Saturday, despite being slow to get surface below 32 overnight. MRX has 1-3 inches up there, looking good. I like the pounding in the Smokies. Happy V Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Great forecast, Jeff. Just a few minutes ago, MRX took my side (Farragut area), per the zone forecast, from 1-2 to less than half an inch, so they agree with you. edit- actually I think that might have been the whole Knox area they changed. I wasn't looking at my specific area when I saw the 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Afternoon MRX disco. .SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS TN VALLEY TONIGHT.STRENGTHENING BACK SIDE JET MAX SLOWING TROUGH DOWN AND DEEPENINGIT. RELATIVELY SMALL SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG N TN BORDER TONIGHTTO OVER TRI BY SATURDAY MORNING. THINGS WE KNOW ARE SYSTEM IS ASMALL ... FAST AND IS CARRYING ITS OWN MOISTURE. PROGS STARTING TOLEAN TOWARD MORE MOISTURE ON COLD SIDE OF CYCLONE. VERY GOOD WARM UPTODAY BUT FREEZING LEVEL ONLY REACHING NEAR 6200 FEET. WITH ONSET OFRAIN TONIGHT...HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL EASILY COOL TO BELOW FREEZING.MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ABOVE 3500 WILL LIKELY BE SNOW THROUGH THEEVENT. FREEZING LEVEL DOESNT DROP BELOW 3500 TIL ~15/07Z. STRONGCOLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND LOW AFT 15/07Z. THAT IS THE TIME WHENVALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN TO SEE RAIN CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW. THEFREEZING LEVEL WILL LOWER TO OR NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH 15/12Z.LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SURFACEABILITY TO ACCUMULATE IS QUESTIONABLE BUT HAZARDOUS IMPACTS WARRANTADVISORY CONDITIONS WERE POSTED. ELEVATED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERNPLATEAU WILL BE MONITORED BUT POST COLD AIR PRECIPITATION/SNOW LOOKSBRIEF. SW NC HOLDS ON TO WARM AIR A BIT LONG TO INCLUDE IN ADVISORYFOR NOW. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTION FOR MORNING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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