Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 That forecast is as bullish as I've seen. Knoxville dudes: how is this guy? Reb can probably tell you better than I can as I don't watch much TV. But the handful of times Aldrich's forecasts have been posted here this winter he's been rather overboard, especially on some of these clippers. I don't think his map is terribly out of line with model consensus though, especially considering ratios. 4 might be a little high, who knows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Todd Howell is the best by far. It should tell you everything you need to know about Aldrich when he says that our potential for snow is coming from the East/Southeast. I will say he's not as bad as Hinkin. Hinkin thinks everything is a "snow shower". During the 93 Blizzard, I remember Hinkin referring to the nonstop heavy snowfall as snow showers! Brutal. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hinkin tends towards downplaying everything. Aldrich tends to overhype things, especially in the long range. He was honking about a significant snow for last Wednesday as a significant accumulating event because one run of the Euro showed a beefed up clipper that of course didn't happen. Howell is usually in the middle. Alrdich also doesn't have a good grasp of local micro climates yet. Hinkin should, but he generally ignores them. Howell is okay with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Can you guys look at what mp184 just posted and tell me if that "phase" affects us or just northern GA/Central NC? Ah, Reb got it. Any affect on us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 4z RAP looks damn impressive on sim radar. Lots of 25-30 dbz returns and even some 30-35 dbz periods. It still has snow in east TN at the hour 18 cutoff. Here's the snow map up to 18: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Move just a tad more west Stovepipe and I'd be happy. Dang, I didn't go to bed yet or even take a shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Move just a tad more west Stovepipe and I'd be happy. Dang, I didn't go to bed yet or even take a shower. It's not even done snowing on that map! Some people in the SE forum are suggesting we may have a phase on our hands. Might be wishcasting, but if we do things could improve even more for us. I need to go to bed as well lol but this is high quality entertainment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wow. This just keeps getting better and better lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 stealing stuff from SE thread but....HRRR vs RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wow. This just keeps getting better and better lol. I'm not weather-smart enough to extrapolate, but the current radar loop looks downright sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You all think MRX will hoist advisories in their early morning update? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WBIR Weather Liked · 4 minutes ago Light snowfall poss. Tue (10am-4pm) across our region, with higher chances for several inches toward Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 4z RAP showing 4.3 inches (max T prof) for TYS on the meteogram... holy crap! Cut that in half and I'm still doing nekkid snow angels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I expect MRX may issue something for the mountains/NE TN/SWVA likely an SPS for the rest of the area. If it's a larger area, It'll include maybe 1-2 counties West of the NC border areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 And Phasing is a good thing, the earlier the better. It allows systems to strengthen more, usually pulls them a bit more Northwest and allows a bigger precip field to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Stole this from another forum, 0z Euro Probably the least generous of all the models tonight except for Northeast TN. Even so, taken verbatim, looks like most of the Valley could score a dusting at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WRF updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 5z RAP looking good tooHas at least .10 for all of East TN from roughly Plateau eastward. With .20-.25 for the border counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 John, did that picture look like an attempt at phasing to you? So we'd have a bigger storm covering a bigger area? Is that what that means? (Poor Mr. Bob will have his hands full moving my posts to banter. Maybe I should I move there? I know I can't ask questions in the pattern thread, but I'm not sure here.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't see phasing on the current 300mb or 500mb maps or any occuring on the RAP over the next few hours. John, did that picture look like an attempt at phasing to you? So we'd have a bigger storm covering a bigger area? Is that what that means? (Poor Mr. Bob will have his hands full moving my posts to banter. Maybe I should I move there? I know I can't ask questions in the pattern thread, but I'm not sure here.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 MRX is out with a WWA for basically everyone South and East of me in East Tennessee. I didn't quite make the cut. Good luck to those who did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Campbell, Scott and Morgan didn't make the cut in the MRX WWA. Last year's thundersnow event also really cranked up South and East of me. Everyone in the Central Valley South, 1-2 with locally higher amounts. Mountains/NE TN/SWVA 1-3 with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 radar is starting to fire up in middle TN Don't know if any is reaching the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Had some dark green returns overhead but nothing reached the ground here. Dew points are 0 or below, especially in Middle Tennessee, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's snowing in JC, under those heavier returns. It's light, but this event could over perform seeing as how it wasn't suppose to start until later in the am Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The further East you go, seems to have slightly better dew points. On the other side of the mountains the humidity is 75% at Boone, hard to pass 40 over on this side. The axis of precip has also set up just S and SE of me. So the call to leave my area out of the WWA looks like it'll be a good one. Good luck to the rest of you, I hope you can maximize this one, I have a feeling it may be awhile before there's another decent snow threat. Of course the GFS wants to give us a good thumping, but as often is the case, it's over 200 when it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Happy for you guys already getting snow! 11z RAP.... wow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 11z RAP meteogram is showing 3.5 inches at TYS with a Max-T of 5.7 inches! TRI shows 3.5 and a Max-T of 6. CHA has 1.8 and 2.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 The RAP radar reflectivity is almost too good to be true. It has returns on us all day and 4 inches at 11:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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