Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 mrx does not seem to think anything is trending our way in there last discussion OvERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING TO TWEAK WIND CHILL VALUES IN THESMOKY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST TN ZONES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WINDCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.&& Unbelievable. Meanwhile, the 0z hi-res Nam looks a lot like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 mrx does not seem to think anything is trending our way in there last discussion OvERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING TO TWEAK WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST TN ZONES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. && That's good. I wouldn't want Morristown to jinx our little snow event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 With any luck, Robert is right and the QPF still has some ways to go up a bit. If he scores here and his snowfall map for Tennessee from earlier happens, I'm liable to subscribe to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 mrx does not seem to think anything is trending our way in there last discussion OvERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING TO TWEAK WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST TN ZONES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. && Right, because ignoring model trends have paid them dividends this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not sure what ratio it uses to be honest, but the mean QPF for TRI is 0.13 Thanks for the additional info and good luck to everyone. Gotta hit the hay. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I didn't see Robert's snow map earlier. What did it show for East TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Anybody check in on Hinkin just for the lols? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The only time the NWS didn't issue a WWA was the ONLY time we really needed one. (Saturday) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nah, I'm in the foothills, near Tellico Plains. Usually I'm in the central and southern valley screw zone just like most of you guys lol. Sorry for your loss, but thank you. It is quite pretty it places here if I do say so myself. I make a lot of trips up the Cherohala Skyway in the winter to get a snow fix. Sorry to get too off topic, but if I get on highway 68(?) coming in from the interstate, how do I get to Cherohala? My mom used to drive there a lot and I've only been there coming from the south from Athens/Etowah area. nvm metalhead. I think my ex-husband has ridden motorcycles there (dummy) so he could take me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 aldrich says .5-2 inches in the valley, 2-4 in higher elevations/NE TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Bearman, I think they are adverse to typing at MRX. That's about the only thing I understand, but they don't write much like Nashville and Memphis do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Interesting Phil post The local maxima of snow in WNC is actually a very common feature with these types of setups (think back to Christmas Day 2010, which was a similar overrunning setup before the system bombed off the coast). What happens is that an inverted trough as 850 hPa sets up thanks to confluence that occurs due to the merger of both damming flow (northeasterlies) to the east of the Appalachians merging with northerly flow on the west side of the Appalachians. While the main confluence zone is associated with the frontogenetical forcing further to the south and east, the mountains essentially create another weaker frontogenetical zone which forces lift. Don't be surprised if somebody in TN or WNC ends up with a few inches from this secondary forcing zone. Unfortunately it also means somebody will be left out in the cold in between these two areas of forcing (likely the foothills where the combination of very dry air + little lift to overcome that dry air will be a death blow to their snowfall hopes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Thanks for the additional info and good luck to everyone. Gotta hit the hay. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk No problem, good luck up your way too. While I'm at it... Mean QPF TYS- 0.15 CHA.-0.12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sorry to get too off topic, but if I get on highway 68(?) coming in from the interstate, how do I get to Cherohala? My mom used to drive there a lot and I've only been there coming from the south from Athens/Etowah area. nvm metalhead. I think my ex-husband has ridden motorcycles there (dummy) so he could take me. If you get off on highway 68 at exit 60 in Sweetwater, you just go south about 30-35 miles to Tellico Plains then hit highway 165 east. Interesting Phil post That was interesting, thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 I totally forgot to check the 12z Euro ensembles until now. They improved considerably from the previous 2 or 3 runs although not as nice as SREF. Means are: TRI 2 inches TYS 1.5 inches CHA 0.6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I totally forgot to check the 12z Euro ensembles until now. They improved considerably from the previous 2 or 3 runs although not as nice as SREF. Means are: TRI 2 inches TYS 1.5 inches CHA 0.6 inches Nice, I'll take that from the Euro every time. So we have had incredible agreement from virtually all guidance all afternoon long, yet this has gotten very little mention at all until late tonight. Lots of people are going to be caught off guard if these trends verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WJHL: Trace - 2 inches Tri-Cities eastward. 1-3 for the mountains. WCYB: Up to 2 inches for all of the valley it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 For once I don't feel like I'm hugging any one or two models for this little event. Everything seems on board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 LOL Hinkin has the plateau getting more than the eastern side of the area(other than mountains). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Some very light returns are already showing up on radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I didn't see Robert's snow map earlier. What did it show for East TN? I was referring to the one that showed synoptic snow breaking out for almost the entire state. It didn't give accums. This has never looked good at all for snow to even fall anywhere west of the Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Oh ok. Thanks for the response back John! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 LOL Hinkin has the plateau getting more than the eastern side of the area(other than mountains). I'm being completely serious, I don't think Matt Hinkin spends 2 minutes a day looking at models during the winter. It's comical how he downplays EVERYTHING for his viewing area. John can tell you this goes back a couple of decades, even with historic storms. I've literally seen him, a few years back, ignore snow when it was falling outside his window. No joke, he never even updated his website/blog thing from rain or really mention it on TV. His own station was running footage of kids out of school sledding down hills and all he said was a warm up was on the way. Terrible, consistently terrible. Sorry for the rant. Edit: That belonged in banter, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Whatever happens, thank you to you guys who set this forum up. In the past, the SE Forum was just the same and I had to look at NC maps and use the very little knowledge I thought I had and get burned because I didn't understand plus their maps and discussion aren't geared for this area. It's just not the same weather. I have enjoyed reading their thread and burned google up looking up new terms, though. Then John threw a new one on me here - sun dog! I found an article written just today in Chicago about Sun Dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 0z GGEM and 03z RAP both show what everything else is showing for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wvlt David AldrichLocal 8 Weather Vols 7 minutes ago Hi, this is Chief Meteorologist David Aldrich. #wvlt#snowshowersSnow showers and flurries will characterize a good portion of your Tuesday. While snowfall amounts may be tricky, as it develops from the EAST-SOUTHEAST, look for 0.5 to 2.0"+ for Knoxville and the Valley and 2 to 4" + inches of snow for the Smokies and S.W. Virginia. There may be even be a few "snow surprises." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wvlt David AldrichLocal 8 Weather Vols 7 minutes ago Hi, this is Chief Meteorologist David Aldrich. #wvlt#snowshowers Snow showers and flurries will characterize a good portion of your Tuesday. While snowfall amounts may be tricky, as it develops from the EAST-SOUTHEAST, look for 0.5 to 2.0"+ for Knoxville and the Valley and 2 to 4" + inches of snow for the Smokies and S.W. Virginia. There may be even be a few "snow surprises." Geography fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Stovepipe, it's three more hours before any new info comes out, right? I think I need to hit the shower and bed if I'm going to get up and not sleep through my possible snowfall. I just want a good moderate one, even if it doesn't amount to a lot of good accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wvlt David AldrichLocal 8 Weather Vols 7 minutes ago That forecast is as bullish as I've seen. Knoxville dudes: how is this guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That forecast is as bullish as I've seen. Knoxville dudes: how is this guy? Todd Howell is the best by far. It should tell you everything you need to know about Aldrich when he says that our potential for snow is coming from the East/Southeast. I will say he's not as bad as Hinkin. Hinkin thinks everything is a "snow shower". During the 93 Blizzard, I remember Hinkin referring to the nonstop heavy snowfall as snow showers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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