Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Also, perhaps the mountains are helping hold back some moist air in east tennessee, thus creating a better atmosphere for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So that looks like 1-2? I hope at least the Tri-Cities' guys get some good snow. My ex-husband is coming over tomorrow for me to work on some tax stuff and he's never been up there except to Bristol. I'd love to drive up around Erwin. He's never seen that part of East TN and that's so much better than receipts and bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Dave Dierks just talked about new model guidance indicating some moisture could make it to Tri-cities, mentioned a couple of inches may be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Actually, Reb, for a quick trip driving toward Townsend is the best and closest place from West Knoxville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wvlt David Aldrich Because this snow is coming in from the EAST-SOUTHEAST on Tuesday, there could be some “snow surprises.” Most atmospheric models do NOT handle storms from the East very well. Think of it like a “blind spot” on a new car. You wouldn’t take the new car back to the dealer if you discovered it had a “blind spot,” you just adapt and work around it. A NEW snow forecast for Knoxville and East Tennessee will air at 11 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Actually, Reb, for a quick trip driving toward Townsend is the best and closest place from West Knoxville? Townsend should be a pretty solid spot to chase if you wanted to take a little drive. I think most of the NC border counties could receive up to 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am right there with you Stove! Things have really looked up for East TN this afternoon/evening! As far as I can remember, this is either the most or 2nd most QPF shown this winter this late in the "game" for this area. Very interested to see what tomorrow brings. I think the reason for the lack of discussion is because of the lack of play this has gotten locally. Nothing would make me happier then for this to catch the NWS with their pants down!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am right there with you Stove! Things have really looked up for East TN this afternoon/evening! As far as I can remember, this is either the most or 2nd most QPF shown this winter this late in the "game" for this area. Very interested to see what tomorrow brings. I think the reason for the lack of discussion is because of the lack of play this has gotten locally. Nothing would make me happier then for this to catch the NWS with their pants down!! Shoot, I hope it catches TDOT with their pants down and the roads get wild. I'm crazy like that, I like chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wvlt David Aldrich Because this snow is coming in from the EAST-SOUTHEAST on Tuesday, there could be some “snow surprises.” Most atmospheric models do NOT handle storms from the East very well. Think of it like a “blind spot” on a new car. You wouldn’t take the new car back to the dealer if you discovered it had a “blind spot,” you just adapt and work around it. A NEW snow forecast for Knoxville and East Tennessee will air at 11 PM. What is he talking about??? The TN moisture isn't associated with the coastal storm at all. It's simple lift, basically creating WSW to ENE precip. Totally confused on that one. I wonder if in house models are really beefing up? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Shoot, I hope it catches TDOT with their pants down and the roads get wild. I'm crazy like that, I like chaos. im right there with you stove. i think they wasted all of the salt on the clippers anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think Aldrich is out to lunch on his forecast. I agree that the models haven't handed it well and that our chances for snow have increased. However, this isn't coming from the east/southeast. Our chances for precipitation are coming due to the influence of the northern stream with the southern energy. The moisture is coming from the wsw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well, several of those snow maps showed a hole right over me. There was a similar system to this in 2003. I barely got a dusting due to virga. Knoxville and points south and east got 2-4 inches due to being a little closer to deeper moisture, being a bit warmer and having better dew points. I will say this, models have for the longest time underestimated the size of Gulf Low precip shields and the extent they can travel north. All that said. It's a time I'd like my chances better being in the Central and Southern Valley than I do being on the Northern Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Man, that RGEM run looked good.21z SREF Plumes:CHA - max 4.76, mean 1.68TYS - max 6.4, mean 2.58TRI - max 6.25, mean 2.78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Lol, I do too, Stoveipe! Reb, are you going to be watching David's forecast? I'm trying to get some stuff done since I have to go to bed early so I may miss it. I guess maybe I should DVR it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I want to see a picture of his snow map, lol. Anyone want to oblige the forum with one? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Also, there was quite a big sun dog this evening. That's an indicator of increasing moisture and even the NOAA says sun dogs are good indicators of falling precip on the way. I also don't know that it will get quite as cold tonight as had been forecast. I'm currently at 16 and I was forecast to drop to -1 tomorrow morning. It's somewhat cloudy, if they stick around, it won't get that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Man, that RGEM run looked good. 21z SREF Plumes: CHA - max 4.76, mean 1.68 TYS - max 6.4, mean 2.58 TRI - max 6.25, mean 2.78 Well that escalated quickly. Very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Monroe County! Are you in the mountain side? My mom passed away last year and she has a newish condo down there I need to sell. Very pretty in Monroe Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Howells models say 2-4 POTENTIALLY in Madisonville/Maryville/Pigeon Forge, 1 in Knox. Basically the farther east you are the better your chances for accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Man, that RGEM run looked good. 21z SREF Plumes: CHA - max 4.76, mean 1.68 TYS - max 6.4, mean 2.58 TRI - max 6.25, mean 2.78 Wait.....what.......? Crazy. Metal head, do the sref plumes use a 10:1 ratio? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 As for the models and precip, both QPF and snow algorithms are supposed to take into account virga when you check SFC on them. A decent indicator for potential snowfall is the 700mb humidity field. If there is any lift and you have 90% humidity at 700, snow should occur. A large area of Tennessee/SE KY and N Alabama has 80-90+ percent humidity at 700mb tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0z GFS looks similar to NAM but haven't looked at any snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Todd's pretty legit you guys told me - not overly nutso on his forecasts, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 As for the models and precip, both QPF and snow algorithms are supposed to take into account virga when you check SFC on them. A decent indicator for potential snowfall is the 700mb humidity field. If there is any lift and you have 90% humidity at 700, snow should occur. A large area of Tennessee/SE KY and N Alabama has 80-90+ percent humidity at 700mb tomorrow. Thanks John, that is good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Monroe County! Are you in the mountain side? My mom passed away last year and she has a newish condo down there I need to sell. Very pretty in Monroe Co. Nah, I'm in the foothills, near Tellico Plains. Usually I'm in the central and southern valley screw zone just like most of you guys lol. Sorry for your loss, but thank you. It is quite pretty it places here if I do say so myself. I make a lot of trips up the Cherohala Skyway in the winter to get a snow fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Todd's pretty legit you guys told me - not overly nutso on his forecasts, right? Aldrich hasn't had too good of a winter hehe. I'd lean toward Howell. 1 to 2 is looking pretty dang solid for Knoxville. That would be huge for us considering this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wait.....what.......? Crazy. Metal head, do the sref plumes use a 10:1 ratio? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Not sure what ratio it uses to be honest, but the mean QPF for TRI is 0.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS puts down .10 from the Plateau and Eastward. The RGEM puts down around .2 in the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well that escalated quickly. Very nice! This thread also escalated quickly lol. Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 mrx does not seem to think anything is trending our way in there last discussion OvERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING TO TWEAK WIND CHILL VALUES IN THESMOKY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST TN ZONES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WINDCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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