Reb Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WxSouth The snow should begin in the Tennessee Valley by early morning and spread quickly through central VA, NC...then it expands quickly, filling in more to the South. Eventually, southern GA, northern FL and coastal SC are in for an ice storm. The Piedmont of GA, SC, NC, VA are in for a nice snow maker, and the further east you are, the heavier the snow will be.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Robert seems to be a little on an island with this one...but, he seems pretty sure about this developing over the TN Valley. Hopefully, we will be able to squeeze at least a little action out of this storm. Saturday morning surprised us....maybe tomorrow too. I will be watching the water vapor tonight...that always seems to be a good indicator this close in. Is there a specific area to watch for? It's pretty impressive that since Robert's post this morning the models have fallen in line almost perfectly with his thinking. More and more with each run. This could be a huge forecasting win for him. I hope he gets a ton of new subscribers as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hate to ask this, but IF there's snow in East TN, however much, would it be in the morning? If it's hitting SC and Central NC by late afternoon, are we going to be all morning if there is any? (Trying to plan my sleep, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hate to ask this, but IF there's snow in East TN, however much, would it be in the morning? If it's hitting SC and Central NC by late afternoon, are we going to be all morning if there is any? (Trying to plan my sleep, lol) morning, yes. it seems like it will almost form right over us and may not last long(have to wait and see). I plan on setting an alarm every two hours to make sure i dont miss anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aeasberry21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Man I guess there is a chance for the plateau? He is really going out on a limb, that is the only mention I have seen of snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WxSouth The snow should begin in the Tennessee Valley by early morning and spread quickly through central VA, NC...then it expands quickly, filling in more to the South. Eventually, southern GA, northern FL and coastal SC are in for an ice storm. The Piedmont of GA, SC, NC, VA are in for a nice snow maker, and the further east you are, the heavier the snow will be.' Hell, that would imply snow getting as far NW as Nashville which I find hard to believe. I'll take it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Reb, you need to tell me how early, lol. I know me - I'll be up all night reading the SE Forum and get no sleep. I don't want to get up at 12 and find out I missed it. The zone forecast says after 1:00, but the SE guys are talking now about how much faster it's moving, assuming I understand them correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 WxSouth The snow should begin in the Tennessee Valley by early morning and spread quickly through central VA, NC...then it expands quickly, filling in more to the South. Eventually, southern GA, northern FL and coastal SC are in for an ice storm. The Piedmont of GA, SC, NC, VA are in for a nice snow maker, and the further east you are, the heavier the snow will be.' Hell, that would imply snow getting as far NW as Nashville which I find hard to believe. I'll take it though. RGEM had some streaks of light snow coming across the state from west to east early on. May not amount to much but flakes could potentially fly across a broad area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Reb, you need to tell me how early, lol. I know me - I'll be up all night reading the SE Forum and get no sleep. I don't want to get up at 12 and find out I missed it. The zone forecast says after 1:00, but the SE guys are talking now about how much faster it's moving, assuming I understand them correctly. Tabby, as of right now, it looks to me like the precip could start as early as 10z and really get cranking by around 13z. So maybe start checking around 5am? But, it might depend on how long it takes to penetrate the dry air. Looking at the RAP reflectivity, one would think this would last several hours but of course we may waste a good bit of time on virga. We should have a better idea on exact timing later on tonight as we look at all of the short range models and radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WxSouth The snow should begin in the Tennessee Valley by early morning and spread quickly through central VA, NC...then it expands quickly, filling in more to the South. Eventually, southern GA, northern FL and coastal SC are in for an ice storm. The Piedmont of GA, SC, NC, VA are in for a nice snow maker, and the further east you are, the heavier the snow will be.' Wow, this map looks VERY DIFFERENT than what the local mets and NWS Huntsville are talking about. I will keep my fingrrs crossed this map is correct. Sent from my KFTT using Tapatalk HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ugh Stovepipe! I may still be up if it's that early. Kidding, but I may have to not read and go to bed early in that case. I like watching snow fall even if it amounts to nothing. The superintendent in Knoxville is from NE, so I hope he doesn't send kids to school just to cancel at 9:00 or so. He's done it before, so I hope they're paying attention. edit: meaning for the side of Knox that gets snow. Maybe we'll be on the right side this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 MRX has now pushed our snow chance to mainly after 2:00 and added a chance for tomorrow night which wasn't there before. So I'm stuck with wanting to stay up and read the SE Forum because they're so excited and things seem to be changing so fast, and going to bed early in case we get anything early. Why is MRX saying so late? I don't want to be a pest, I just want to know my best odds of seeing anything. It's been fun anyway. I've read every post in their forum for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 MRX has now pushed our snow chance to mainly after 2:00 and added a chance for tomorrow night which wasn't there before. So I'm stuck with wanting to stay up and read the SE Forum because they're so excited and things seem to be changing so fast, and going to bed early in case we get anything early. Why is MRX saying so late? I don't want to be a pest, I just want to know my best odds of seeing anything. It's been fun anyway. I've read every post in their forum for days. That is the RAP at hour 18, which is what, about noon tomorrow? Seems like things would be winding down soon after that. Maybe MRX is looking at something else, I don't know. Edit: NAM seems to start it quite a bit later, maybe that's what they are going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 They just now zapped our chances for tomorrow night, Stovepipe. I guess this is hard to pin down everywhere this time, not just here. I'm just going to enjoy whatever it is. I read that like you've all said, cold will return after the warm up, so I still think we have some winter chances left. Also, Robert's post a few minutes ago says that when we think it's over in AL, GA & TN, it can start all over again, so who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS has 0.10 here with likely very high ratios. I'm not convinced yet. Might wind up being a virga fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WxSouth The snow should begin in the Tennessee Valley by early morning and spread quickly through central VA, NC...then it expands quickly, filling in more to the South. Eventually, southern GA, northern FL and coastal SC are in for an ice storm. The Piedmont of GA, SC, NC, VA are in for a nice snow maker, and the further east you are, the heavier the snow will be.' No light snow has a prayer as dry as our air is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 .If it comes down that hard it will over come am i wrong? RAP sim radar showing 20-30 dbz returns tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 SREF means are hanging at around an inch at TYS and TRI. Haven't budged much all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 0z RAP snowfall through the next 18 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM coming in a little bit wetter for ETN. Dew Points in teens to near 20 it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 SREF probability of 12 hour snowfall greater than 1 inch: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 0z NAM 24 hour snowfall: Edit: Updated to show hour 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0z NAM does look interesting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM shows 12 straight hours of snow for NE TN, yet only 1/2 inch of snow. I need to look at the text data, something seems a miss here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM shows 12 straight hours of snow for NE TN, yet only 1/2 inch of snow. I need to look at the text data, something seems a miss here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk My biggest concern at this point is the dry air. Looks like we'll have a decent little amount of QPF to work with and ratios on the higher side, but I hope the virga monster doesn't eat it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I though modeling took that into consideration? I know the sim radars don't, but I thought I remembered modeling ONLY showed what falls to the surface. Is that wrong? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 I though modeling took that into consideration? I know the sim radars don't, but I thought I remembered modeling ONLY showed what falls to the surface. Is that wrong? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I thought I saw a comment in the SE forum today that mentioned QPF totals don't take into account what is lost to virga. But don't take that to the bank. Hopefully Mr. Bob or someone can clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like surface temps in the 20s and dew points in the teens (with some 20s nosing up the valley) on the 21z RAP. Relative humidity looks good as well. Maybe dry air isn't as big of a concern as I feared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about this. 0z RGEM at hour 30, playing right along with Robert's thinking with the northern precip tongue going west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think the RAP radar reflectivity moisture in west/middle tn will be mostly virga. In east where the DP's are relatively more cooperative i believe its more likely to reach the ground. This is why moisture/snow accums are being shown in ETN on the NAM/GFS/SREF/etc and not west/middle TN. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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