lugnuts Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looks like a nice surprise for my neck of the woods in SE Ky according to one model..lol..Hard to have faith when the nam,rap says otherwise..Guess we shall see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Mark Reynolds WJHL, says it's going to be a minimal event for KTRI, mainly a mountain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looks like a nice surprise for my neck of the woods in SE Ky according to one model..lol..Hard to have faith when the nam,rap says otherwise..Guess we shall see.. I wouldn't put much stock in the NAM, it's been awful as I've ever seen it this year. Shows nothing, get snow, shows snow, get nothing. According to what part you're in, I'd say 1 to even up to 4 inches for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 MRX has taken down the SPS over the forecast area, that may mean they are going to either issue a WWA for more of the area or just re-issue the SPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 MRX has issued WWAs for the northeastern valley. It is warranted, especially since it happens partially during rush hour. Feels eerily similar to an event just this time frame last year...the one with thundersnow. It really is going to come down to whether this system can get its act together early enough. Could fizzle. But if it gets going should have high snow to water ratios. I would guess around one inch Morristown, 1-4 in Kingsport and JC, 2-4 in Bristol, 3-4 in Abingdon and points northeastward. Could easily be nothing, could easily be more. I am splitting the difference. Obviously, confidence is higher the further northeast you go. Latest GFS puts slightly more qpf in this region on its 18z run. Well, I am not quitting my day job! System just never materialized this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I might be crazy, but I am excited to see if we can get some squalls this Saturday with the front coming through. I don't think it would amount to much, but it has that "look", so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 You are not crazy. I'll vote for snow showers up your way Saturday with around an inch Tri Cities. Event looks confined to Tri Cities and Upper Plateau. Count eastern Kentucky in too. I'd be shocked if much happens from Knoxville south. Upper Plateau and East Kentucky could get locally 2 inches plus. Saw some interesting surprises Tuesday. Reasoning includes a jet stream right over the area up there. Should get lift in the left front quad (left exit region). if using the curved jet model one still gets lift in the front (exit) region. The 850 temps crash which will promote instability. Wind direction is not perfect but adequate for orographics. Little bit of moisture returns in contrast to the ludicrous dry today. However it won't have as much juice as Tuesday; hence only 2 inch surprises and one inch otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Mentioned this earlier today, but I am still optimistic about our little Saturday event. I think we squeeze an inch or so out of it. The setup isn't bad for NE TN Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro looks like its gonna stall it out somewhere around B'ham and not closer to us on the 0Z,so we go from alot to good luck if you get an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The EPS gave us some hope,gives about 3" for everyone the 2nd,we're missing a great snow by a couple degrees everywhere,something to watch.It's still days away for us,it could go crapola real easily with marginal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yeah the 0z runs were a disappointment for sure. Once the pattern changes, things get much much wetter (late next week) and the cold air is not far away. I'll gladly take that look as opposed to this current dry spell. The 6z GFS shows that it doesn't take much of a cold push to get our area a big time snow dump (look at hour 300). While it's painful to see the Euro give up on it's multi-run idea of substantial snow next week, I'm not terribly discouraged at our chances going into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Also, as I look a little closer at the 0z Euro, it's not too far off from showing a snow event on Friday and again Sunday for the TN Valley. A minor shift and we'd be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z GFS is snowier for tomorrow's clipper. Plateau, Upper Cumberland, and TRI look like a solid 2 inches. 12z NAM even better. In fact, much of the eastern highland rim gets in on the action. Knoxville even squeezes out an inch. Might have to turn on the floodlights for this one after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z GFS is snowier for tomorrow's clipper. Plateau, Upper Cumberland, and TRI look like a solid 2 inches. 12z NAM even better. In fact, much of the eastern highland rim gets in on the action. Knoxville even squeezes out an inch. Might have to turn on the floodlights for this one after all. I have been keeping an eye on this one Stove as I just thought the setup was decent for a quick hitting light snow Saturday morning. I think it comes in b/w 8ish and noon, so you might not need flood lights at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Be wary of the Goofy, it's showed 1-3 for most of East Tennessee 24 hours before the last flizzard hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Also, as I look a little closer at the 0z Euro, it's not too far off from showing a snow event on Friday and again Sunday for the TN Valley. A minor shift and we'd be in business. 12z GFS looks a tad warmer than the Euro at the same timeframe but yes, we'd only need the boundary just a hair south of where it's currently depicted to be in the game. I'm hoping for a quicker and deeper push of the cold air at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z GFS is snowier for tomorrow's clipper. Plateau, Upper Cumberland, and TRI look like a solid 2 inches. 12z NAM even better. In fact, much of the eastern highland rim gets in on the action. Knoxville even squeezes out an inch. Might have to turn on the floodlights for this one after all. I just looked at 12z, and I don't know if I need to clear my cache or you? 12z gfs looks pretty anemic on my end. I still think if you look at the simulated radar on the NAM it looks pretty juiced all the way to the mountains. I am sure we use up some of the front end to saturate the column, but having missed so many recently.................... we are due an over performer. I am basing my optimism on the setup, but also on my gut. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I just looked at 12z, and I don't know if I need to clear my cache or you? 12z gfs looks pretty anemic on my end. I still think if you look at the simulated radar on the NAM it looks pretty juiced all the way to the mountains. I am sure we use up some of the front end to saturate the column, but having missed so many recently.................... we are due an over performer. I am basing my optimism on the setup, but also on my gut. Time will tell. It may end up a flizzard, but these looked better to me than I recall seeing on previous runs. I might be crazy in the head though. 12z GFS: 12z NAM 12z NAM Hi-Res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Is that snow depth or snowfall? Because the GFS is showing the snowcover in place on the plateau already. It's overestimating by a bit what is currently on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Is that snow depth or snowfall? Because the GFS is showing the snowcover in place on the plateau already. It's overestimating by a bit what is currently on the ground. The GFS was snow depth, my bad. The NAMs were 24 hour snow accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Thanks for all the "welcomes" yesterday guys! I've been lurking over in the Southeast forum this morning. Looking at the recent model runs for the storm 5-6 days out, it appears as if things are trending west. If this trend continues and/or the storm phases with the northern stream, I believe we could see a little snow out of this. Granted, we won't be in the "bullseye" but if the storm shifts 150-200 miles westward, we could be looking at a couple of inches. The latest Canadian model shows light precip all the way to the apps in western North Carolina. Please correct me if I'm wrong in this thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 different look at the h5 on the gfs,has a closed low just sitting by the bajas,who knows where this will go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 EPS finally loaded up,showing maybe a dusting tomorrow if that for Nashville and about 1"towards the Cumberland E Edit:i'll keep adding here,some flurries by the looks to the E/Valley Monday Just for fun,it's showing N/FL now 1-1.5" The 31:nothing to call home about,only light stuff Sunday the 2nd:hello:) 3-6"valley wide Feb 4:1-1.5" Still showing a big snow storm for the SE aroundFeb 6-7,think this is the 3rd run str8 now around this time,nothing for us though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 JKL has a downright wintry forecast for tomorrow for their TN border counties. 100 percent snow, 1-2 inches, with isolated 3+ areas. Very windy, with snow squalls possible in the afternoon. Their WWA is for snow and blowing snow. BNA says they might need to issue a WWA for their Plateau counties too. The axis for these clippers has been incredibly consistent this year. Not much love, especially I-40 and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 JKL has a downright wintry forecast for tomorrow for their TN border counties. 100 percent snow, 1-2 inches, with isolated 3+ areas. Very windy, with snow squalls possible in the afternoon. Their WWA is for snow and blowing snow. BNA says they might need to issue a WWA for their Plateau counties too. The axis for these clippers has been incredibly consistent this year. Not much love, especially I-40 and south. Cookville got 2-3 from the last one, dusting to an inch even down in Dekalb county south of 40 closing schools. I'm impressed with how the upper Cumberland areas west of the plateau have done in these dryish clippers. I bet they do relatively well tomorrow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised to see this one do as well as any clipper this year, just for the fact that it's the only one that doesn't have a massive arctic blast behind it. I could see this one dropping some snow but of course, it melting off immediately on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Been keep watching this creeping westward the past few runs,the further W it goes the better you guys will get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREFAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS DUE TO RIDGING, ANANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN FLOW, AND ABOVE-NORMALSEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. ABOVE-NORMALTEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, ANDWESTERN TEXAS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTAND NORTHERN ROCKIES, ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS NORTH OF TEXAS, THE GREATLAKES, AND THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTERPORTIONS OF THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERNFLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ABOVE-NORMAL SEA-SURFACETEMPERATURES NEAR FLORIDA.THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FAVORABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, PORTIONS OFTHE GREAT BASIN, AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL FORA COLD FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOME MILD RETURN FLOWYIELDS INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO OHIOTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHWARD TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. A DISPLACEDSTORM TRACK FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF CALIFORNIA, THESOUTHWEST, AND WESTERN TEXAS. SLIGHT RIDGING FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATIONACROSS WESTERN FLORIDA.THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'SOPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLEMEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANCENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEANCENTERED ON DAY 10.FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TOGOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY UNCERTAINTYIN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND TENNESSEEVALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nothing much to see on the EPS,continues to trend warmer,best snow chance would be around the 5th,couple inches,snow Tuesday but this keeps getting weaker for Mid to east.N/Fl could possibly get more snow than the Mid valley for the season..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Lookout posted this in the SE thread...though it was an excellent write-up from HPC. They are really not sold on the GFS and Euro operationals today. Go and look at their snow graphics for day 3. Interesting...Here is their disco: ...GULF COAST..A BROAD/DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN2/3 OF THE NATION WITH A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COASTAT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR ASIGNIFICANT ICE STORM ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES ONTUE...WITH A KEY PLAYER BEING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHDROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERNPLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM / 09Z SREF WERE THEMOST AGGRESSIVE FOR ICE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH A GREAT DEAL OFOVERRUNNING OF THE COLD AIR GENERATING A LARGE SWATCH OF ICE/SLEETFROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...ENEWD TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINASAND SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE. GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND THENAM/SREF WEIGHING IN ON THE EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITHRESPECT TO THE UPPER TROUGH...THE WPC IDEA WAS TO DOWNPLAY THENAM/SREF IDEA BUT KEEP SOME DEGREE OF ICING INTO THE DEEPSOUTH...MORE THAN DEPICTED IN THE USUALLY TRUSTWORTHY GFS/ECMWF.GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THE GEFS/EC SHOWING THE 0.10 QPF INCHLINE WELL INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST...THIS LED US TO THINK THEDETERMINISTIC GFS/EC WERE LIKELY TOO DRY. CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONSIS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD SOMETHING IN THE MIDDLEOF THE EXTREMES BUT NO SINGLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL WAS FAVORED FORSNOW/ICE OUTPUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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