Stovepipe Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Let's use this thread for short range discussion. If something starts to look like a big dog we can make a dated event thread. Now let's talk about marginal flizzard potential! The GFS has been trying its hardest to cough up some flakes across TN this weekend. It suggests an inch is possible from Memphis all the way to Crossville with a dusting to a half inch in the eastern valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 We are in Gatlinburg for the weekend and I would love to see some flakes. If nothing else we figure to ride up 441 until it turns to let my sun play in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarksville Snowman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hello folks just signed up here, I live in northwest middle tn and I am glad the Tennessee Valley forum was started.I'll be glad when we get something big to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hoping to see a front end snow shower, temp is 33 degrees with moisture heading this way. Otherwise, I don't think East Tennessee sees much in the way of flakes this weekend unless you're above 3500 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hoping to see a front end snow shower, temp is 33 degrees with moisture heading this way. Otherwise, I don't think East Tennessee sees much in the way of flakes this weekend unless you're above 3500 feet. Could get some wet bulb help then change back over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It is going to be a rainy weekend for the TN Valley, but not as much as points south and east. Memphis, northern Mississippi, and northern Alabama are going to get their share though. The radar returns are also depicting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Interesting AFD out of MEM concerning next weekend/Christmas time frame- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 550 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2013 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2013/ DISCUSSION... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...WITH THE FIRST NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH AND THE SECONDARY POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER WEST TEXAS...WILL EFFECT THE WEATHER OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS PROGRESSING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE GREATEST POPS ALIGNED ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF HIGHER POPS WILL EXIST THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROWAL FEATURE ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL SKIRT ACROSS THESE AREAS. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND RAIN WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION BAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE LOCATIONS HELPING TO LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. ANY STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF LOW STRATUS ALONG WITH DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN A SLOW FALL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS FURTHER SOUTH...SOME FLURRIES MAY MIX IN WITH DRIZZLE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THOUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH BECOMING RE- ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. RETURNING MOISTURE ALONG WITH ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MID SOUTH BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE PATTERN TAKES ON A SIMILAR LOOK TO THAT OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE EAST AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER 48 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS POTENT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS REGARDING HOW THIS SYSTEM SETS UP OVER THE AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN...THE DETAILS SHOULD DICTATE EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPES...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH JUST AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY PERIOD. STAY TUNED ON THE LATEST REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SYSTEM. JLH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hello folks just signed up here, I live in northwest middle tn and I am glad the Tennessee Valley forum was started.I'll be glad when we get something big to follow. Welcome Clarksville Snowman. Glad you signed up. This subforum should grow rapidly, at least that's what we are hoping for. I grew up just outside of Nashville, live in Johnson City now. I would not be surprised to see something to follow for the period right around Christmas or shortly after. Once again, welcome and please tell a friend or two about this subforum. It will be a much better place to follow potential weather than local news outlets. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Someone's going to get dumped on in about a week's time. I hope it's us. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Above 2500 ft (of which I am not), could be a little mischief wx wise. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN306 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035-041>047-072-074-081-082-087-098-102-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-151400-CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...COSBY...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...COKER CREEK...JASPER...DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON306 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013 /206 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2013/...LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAYMORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURESFALLING BELOW FREEZING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTERMIDNIGHT. WHILE ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...A LIGHTGLAZE OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON HIGHER ELEVATION ROADWAYS ABOVE2500 FEET.TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS ONCE THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINS.MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSESWHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS OFTEN DEVELOP FIRST. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAAWEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...FOR LATER UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 We drove up to Newfound gap earlier and it was all rain. I had my suspicions since Leconte was reporting sleet his morning. We might head home over the mountain tomorrow and give it another shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 So glad to see our new forum!!! Nothing against the SE folks, but the TN Valley has it's own unique patterns...I look forward to following our winter on here with you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 We drove up to Newfound gap earlier and it was all rain. I had my suspicions since Leconte was reporting sleet his morning. We might head home over the mountain tomorrow and give it another shot. Dang, I was hoping you'd see some action up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Dang, I was hoping you'd see some action up there. I was a little bummed but we woke up to 34 with snizzle falling. The higher hills outside of town have some white on them so if they haven't closed 441 we are heading up to make a snow man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Surprised no one mentioning the clown map starting at Hr 180 on the latest run of the GFS..Yes i'm a weenie and have nothing else better to do..If i'm reading it right it looks like maybe models are just now beginning to pick up on the cold air...Kinda looks like the same setup we had last time...Stalled front with waves of low pressure forming along the front..But as we all know the GFS will show 20 different solutions before then.. By the way Ky boy here..Technically in the Ohio Valley but reside in the SE part..Just across the hill from Pound Virginia..Anyways always liked to follow tnweathernut because he would sometimes mention my area..Also follow the NWS at Jackson Ky..KJKL...Hope i posted in right forum..Good luck on the new Tenn.Valley Forum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Surprised no one mentioning the clown map starting at Hr 180 on the latest run of the GFS..Yes i'm a weenie and have nothing else better to do..If i'm reading it right it looks like maybe models are just now beginning to pick up on the cold air...Kinda looks like the same setup we had last time...Stalled front with waves of low pressure forming along the front..But as we all know the GFS will show 20 different solutions before then.. By the way Ky boy here..Technically in the Ohio Valley but reside in the SE part..Just across the hill from Pound Virginia..Anyways always liked to follow tnweathernut because he would sometimes mention my area..Also follow the NWS at Jackson Ky..KJKL...Hope i posted in right forum..Good luck on the new Tenn.Valley Forum.. Welcome Lugnuts, please feel free to post on the TN Valley forum. I would think your area is much closer (weather wise) to our area than the OH Valley. I appreciate your kind words also. I have family in Tazewell TN and we have been known to be in Middlesboro KY from time to time. It will be interesting to see how the next events unfold. GFS is back and forth showing cold, it would be nice to get something solid to follow within 5-6 days. Hope we can FINALLY creep forward and realize a better pattern for the TN Valley area (SE Ky too). Once again, welcome and post often. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Welcome Lugnuts, please feel free to post on the TN Valley forum. I would think your area is much closer (weather wise) to our area than the OH Valley. I appreciate your kind words also. I have family in Tazewell TN and we have been known to be in Middlesboro KY from time to time. It will be interesting to see how the next events unfold. GFS is back and forth showing cold, it would be nice to get something solid to follow within 5-6 days. Hope we can FINALLY creep forward and realize a better pattern for the TN Valley area (SE Ky too). Once again, welcome and post often. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Thxs for the invite..Fond memories of Middlesboro and Pineville area when growing up..Use to frequent that area quite often..Me and some buddies would drive over the hill and but some good tenn. white lighting from time to time..Ah, the good ole days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Latest Euro is toasty across the state for next weekend. It's showing temps topping out at 68 on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looks like more heavy rain is coming this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm hearing rumblings of some severe potential this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 MRX appears to think there's a slight chance for some light frozen precip tonight in the higher elevations of NE TN and SW VA. And it definitely looks like a snorkle will be mandatory for any last minute Christmas shopping this coming weekend! HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN403 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-180915-CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-403 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013 /303 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2013/THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTHCAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERSIN THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE ASCOLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEPOSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LESS THAN ONE INCH EXPECTED..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA ONSATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTEDAHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOWLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 From Mike Dross at Wright-Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 From Mike Dross at Wright-Weather.... Posted in the medium/long range discussion...on Dec 14th. The GFS hinted that day at potential t-storms for this upcoming weekend. Hope it thunders in the North Carolina mountains. That rule is about as close to gold as any "wooly worm" rule I can find. Start pumping warm air into a cold air mass...bad things are going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 It'll be interesting to see how things play out this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 A few 'nader stats for Middle TN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Wow, look at those totals in west TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Impressive Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Forecast high on Tuesday, 33. After a record high on Saturday of 74, that is going to feel even colder than it is....and 33 is nothing to laugh about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Went ahead and posted in this thread since it is not so much pattern but upcoming events... 000 FXUS64 KMRX 262015 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 315 PM EST THU DEC 26 ....LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DIVERGE ABOUT MID WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHIELD LARGE ENOUGH FOR SOME HIGH POPS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY MOST OF THE AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COLD...DRY AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN RETURNING MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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