D.C. Area Christmas Eve/Christmas Snow Stats

[Ian]

Trace on 24th...

DCA - 1897, 1919, 1929, 1938, 1959, 1969, 1980, 1993, 1998

BWI - 1911, 1919, 1924, 1930, 1969, 1980, 1983, 1993, 1998

IAD - 1969, 1998, 1992

Trace on 25th...

DCA - 1890, 1894, 1906, 1914, 1917, 1923, 1938, 1945, 1947, 1948, 1957, 1959, 1967, 1975, 1976, 1981, 1985, 1989

BWI - 1906, 1915, 1917, 1923, 1924, 1925, 1934, 1947, 1948, 1957, 1959, 1965, 1966, 1985, 1989, 1992, 1995

IAD - 1968, 1975, 1985, 1981, 1965

[Bob Chill]

Great stuff Ian. Really puts how uncommon it is in perspective. Any chance you can post the years with measurable snow on the ground for the 25th?

[Riptide]

I like what I see in terms of a potential historical event, hoping for the best but not expecting the world.

[ThePhotoGuy]

Thanks for putting all this history together in one chart!

[usedtobe]

Trace on 24th...

DCA - 1897, 1919, 1929, 1938, 1959, 1969, 1980, 1993, 1998

BWI - 1911, 1919, 1924, 1930, 1969, 1980, 1983, 1993, 1998

IAD - 1969, 1998, 1992

Trace on 25th...

DCA - 1890, 1894, 1906, 1914, 1917, 1923, 1938, 1945, 1947, 1948, 1957, 1959, 1967, 1975, 1976, 1981, 1985, 1989

BWI - 1906, 1915, 1917, 1923, 1924, 1925, 1934, 1947, 1948, 1957, 1959, 1965, 1966, 1985, 1989, 1992, 1995

IAD - 1968, 1975, 1985, 1981, 1965

Are you going to do a piece for CWG on the stats? Nice graphics. I'll probably be doing a piece Monday morning about the snowfall potential for the upcoming storm. Wes

[Ian]

Great stuff Ian. Really puts how uncommon it is in perspective. Any chance you can post the years with measurable snow on the ground for the 25th?

dont have a ton of time rest of the evening but here's DC greater than T. I can do similar to the others tomorrow.

[Ian]

Are you going to do a piece for CWG on the stats? Nice graphics. I'll probably be doing a piece Monday morning about the snowfall potential for the upcoming storm. Wes

I dunno. I guess I can run it by Jason -- was just bored and had some free time, figured it might be handy if the model threat continues. Or given the range I might have just wasted an hour+. But it's still a fun fact to have I suppose either way.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Wonder what the records would show for any other single day during the DEC-FEB period. Probably a cluster here or there, but you would think as a matter of stats, that any one day during the period would have just about the same chance of snow with about the same climatological records to back it up. You've done a lot of research and data gathering on winter storms. Do you by chance have all of the DC measureable snows in some sort of spreadsheet that would give an average daily amount of snow for any given date along with the number of occurances for said dates?

[Ian]

Wonder what the records would show for any other single day during the DEC-FEB period. Probably a cluster here or there, but you would think as a matter of stats, that any one day during the period would have just about the same chance of snow with about the same climatological records to back it up. You've done a lot of research and data gathering on winter storms. Do you by chance have all of the DC measureable snows in some sort of spreadsheet that would give an average daily amount of snow for any given date along with the number of occurances for said dates?

I have done a pull of 1"+ on a given date since official records began. (note does not include 12/16 inch)

I do have everything else in spreadsheets and will continue to break them down when I have time. I gave Wes a pull of 4"+ by date but I never graphed it out I don't think.

I guess to really get more trustworthy odds you'd want to do the whole week/period around xmas as per day stuff is sorta random maybe. But it's still the records for those days so useful in any case.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I have done a pull of 1"+ on a given date since official records began. (note does not include 12/16 inch)

I do have everything else in spreadsheets and will continue to break them down when I have time. I gave Wes a pull of 4"+ by date but I never graphed it out I don't think.

I guess to really get more trustworthy odds you'd want to do the whole week/period around xmas as per day stuff is sorta random maybe. But it's still the records for those days so useful in any case.

That's awesome, Ian. If we "cut" the data at 8 events, there is an obvious higher occurance between the middle of Jan to the middle of Feb. If we cut it at 6 it looks like it widens to an early Jan to early March spread, and if cut at 4 it pretty much covers Dec through mid March. I'll remember this graph next year and not waste my time hoping for a Thanksgiving snow.

[nw baltimore wx]

I dunno. I guess I can run it by Jason -- was just bored and had some free time, figured it might be handy if the model threat continues. Or given the range I might have just wasted an hour+. But it's still a fun fact to have I suppose either way.

A waste of time? No way. Very cool stuff. Thanks for putting this together.

[mitchnick]

I remember the Christmas of 69" snow quite well (I'm sorry to say) around BWI (no, I did not know Jimi Hendrix)

I still recall turning around in church constantly, looking to see if the snow had started, and my father giving me dirty looks

half way through, it had and by the time church was over, we had a nice 1/4" coating and steady snow falling

we visited some relatives that Christmas, as we usually did, and I was quite the weenie then enjoying and watching the snow more than the social part of the visit

I think mby ended up around 6", ending as zr or mix of some sort

not a huge event, but still the biggest Christmas Day snowfall in my lifetime to date

I'm hoping this year blows it out of the water

[usedtobe]

I dunno. I guess I can run it by Jason -- was just bored and had some free time, figured it might be handy if the model threat continues. Or given the range I might have just wasted an hour+. But it's still a fun fact to have I suppose either way.

If you don't, I might use it in my piece but if you use it, I could always then link your graphics. I'm actually going to write an intro paragraph for Monday article tonight as I think the odds are that the models will continue to show the threat. If they don't I'll figure out how to use some of it some other way.

[winterymix]

I have done a pull of 1"+ on a given date since official records began. (note does not include 12/16 inch)

I do have everything else in spreadsheets and will continue to break them down when I have time. I gave Wes a pull of 4"+ by date but I never graphed it out I don't think.

I guess to really get more trustworthy odds you'd want to do the whole week/period around xmas as per day stuff is sorta random maybe. But it's still the records for those days so useful in any case.

Ian, it is really intriguing, the way the data refuses to be symmetrical. From Jan 24 to around Feb 18, each date has at least 4 occurances. Otherwise, the distribution seems to resist symmetry,

[Sparky]

I remember the Christmas of 69" snow quite well (I'm sorry to say) around BWI (no, I did not know Jimi Hendrix)

I still recall turning around in church constantly, looking to see if the snow had started, and my father giving me dirty looks

half way through, it had and by the time church was over, we had a nice 1/4" coating and steady snow falling

we visited some relatives that Christmas, as we usually did, and I was quite the weenie then enjoying and watching the snow more than the social part of the visit

I think mby ended up around 6", ending as zr or mix of some sort

not a huge event, but still the biggest Christmas Day snowfall in my lifetime to date

I'm hoping this year blows it out of the water

I was lucky. I spent Christmas Day in 69 in Reisterstown over my Aunt/Uncle's new home. The snowfall was noticeably heavier there than it was when I went back home later that afternoon to NE Baltimore. They wound up with close to 9 inches compared to my 4-5". It started falling if I recall shortly after noon. Got quickly heavy. I had my eyes glued out of every window in the house the whole time. We had to leave earlier than we normally would have on Christmas because it was accumulating so fast. So I enjoyed about 4/5 hours of heavy snow out my cousins house.

[Ian]

If you don't, I might use it in my piece but if you use it, I could always then link your graphics. I'm actually going to write an intro paragraph for Monday article tonight as I think the odds are that the models will continue to show the threat. If they don't I'll figure out how to use some of it some other way.

I think I'm going to do something ... Jason liked the idea. I can let you know probably by tomorrow how I frame it if you want to use any yourself.

[usedtobe]

I think I'm going to do something ... Jason liked the idea. I can let you know probably by tomorrow how I frame it if you want to use any yourself.

Good, I look forward to seeing it and will link my article to your piece.

[RIC Airport]

AKQ has the xmas climo for RIC and ORF

http://forecast.weat...ord=CLIMATOLOGY