mob1 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 sreflga.pngIt had some members of 15 plus inches further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 NAM is nice. You can see it picking up on expanding precipitation once the pva reaches the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 NAM overspreads light snow across the region early tuesday morning. Intensity picks up through mid morning with snow across the whole forecast area, highest rates NW areas initially. Decent hit for northern areas and city east by 48hrs Looks pretty cold with the freezing line cutting NE-->SW along LI through NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Wow, the SREF has some really amped up members in the individual images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 2 to 4 based on 10 to 1 w clipper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 18z nam .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The NAM has a warm boundary layer that tries to warm up Central and Northern NJ to rain as the coastal low hits the coast. I'd bet the house on that not happening. Anyway, here's the goods... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 18z nam .25+ It's actually .40+ from North NJ into NYC and S CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Start time of precip at the earliest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 There is litttle room for error on the NAM - South Jersey from Ocean County south gets nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Start time of precip at the earliest? Starts dawn tuesday, done by mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 It's actually .40+ from North NJ into NYC and S CT. sorry going off sv maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 These are some cols 850s minus 8 ish with these rates it's just snow for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 sorry going off sv maps Yeah no problem, the wxbell maps have handy .10" increments so its not limited to .25-.50 or .50 to .75. It's around .45 in NYC and Northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Where in Monmouth -we had 5" in Manalapan Rossi Models can really struggle to identify those types of mesoscale features in advance. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=618922278155034&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 looks dicey for the evening commute... will there be precip issues for LI?? the NAM warms the surface above freezing for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 We've got some lift here, boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 looks dicey for the evening commute... will there be precip issues for LI?? the NAM warms the surface above freezing for us... South winds at 10m..those 40's are lurking very close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Might be rain for the immediate coast if the low goes overhead or north at all. NAM spikes temps to near 40 again for the shores. The 850 temps and thicknesses could say one thing but southerly/easterly winds mean one thing-rain.Disagree in this case: no one is seeing rain with -10C 850s and the arctic antecedent airmass. If this thing digs like GFS we are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Too close for comfort. I've seen this happen before. I don't like how warm the boundary temps get. The one saving grace is that 850s are pretty cold, so deeper DBZs can cut through marginal BLs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 We've got some lift here, boys. nam_w700_rh_ne_16.png Mesoscale poss. W cold 850s not a bad signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Let's not forget the NAM was the warmest model of the 12z suite, so what we see here are good things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Wow, the SREF has some really amped up members in the individual images. A few of those member would really catch people off guard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Is that a norlun hinted in snj at 66 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 If we get some good precip it should cool the column with 850s so cold, with light precip we might have some mixing at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 2 to 4 based on 10 to 1 w clipper 1 Aren't clippers usually higher with ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Aren't clippers usually higher with ratios? Yeh. But they also love to underperform. So rather be cautious. But think u expect 2 to 4 to b safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Is that a norlun hinted in snj at 66 ? Nam is the furthest south with it so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 A few of those member would really catch people off guard The ARW members are often too amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 4km NAM says yes...very similar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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