Superstorm93 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well this would be...interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 New HRRR is still favoring the GFS, looks like a nice band heading towards NYC (It is at 15 hours however)Looking nice for Philly area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Ptype also basically shows rain/snow line literally from just off the south shore of LI that could be a good sign since the HRRR tends to be too aggressively warm on the mix and rain snow lines beyond 6-8 hours Yea good point, I just hope the break in the action doesn't allow temps in the column to warm too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 From what I can tell, the HRRR really hits the NYC area hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 New HRRR looks even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Can Me and jm1220 keep it all snow that is the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Can Me and jm1220 keep it all snow that is the question Lol when I was like 10 I used to take a tray of ice cubes and put them outside so that it would stay cold, if I heard there would be a mix or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Sounds like something I would have done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Just hoping for a snowy day, don't have to head into Brooklyn for work so here is hoping to shoveling tomorrow and maybe tomorrow night too!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Can Me and jm1220 keep it all snow that is the question I'd say 90% chance we go to rain at some point. It's going to be very hard to keep it all snow for us. The GFS is by far the best case though, and the NAM looked better. We have to hope though the RGEM is dead wrong. That would be like a coating directly to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'd say 90% chance we go to rain at some point. It's going to be very hard to keep it all snow for us. The GFS is by far the best case though, and the NAM looked better. We have to hope though the RGEM is dead wrong. That would be like a coating directly to rain. But I know the deal..5-10 minutes after you switch, I switch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 But I know the deal..5-10 minutes after you switch, I switch! Not always but most times yea. JM puts the odd at 90%...I put them at 45% we change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The SREF has been pulling away the accumulations each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'll take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looking nice for Philly area! Thanks for the heads up, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 That's some heavy snow here in NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Thanks for the heads up, lol.No problem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 No problem! I Hope SnowGoose69 is right about the HRRR is aggressive with temps beyond 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 If the HRRR is right LI will be rain :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 If the HRRR is right LI will be rain :/ Yup shows snow to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Gonna put a nail in this one lol.....NAM has now gone back to a 2" or so solution, heavier further north and east....no banding. GFS has lifted it's idea of an amped up second batch and gives about 2" or so. The HRRR now shifts most of the accumulating snow way north and east, giving us an inch, maybe two. The SREF has been getting lighter each consecutive run.....now giving us only up to an inch or so. Temperatures also now look to climb to 35+, not the original 30-32 forecasted. So all in all, I'm sticking to my original call of 1 to 1.5 inches for NE NJ and NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Gonna put a nail in this one lol.....NAM has now gone back to a 2" or so solution, heavier further north and east....no banding. GFS has lifted it's idea of an amped up second batch and gives about 2" or so. The HRRR now shifts most of the accumulating snow way north and east, giving us an inch, maybe two. The SREF has been getting lighter each consecutive run.....now giving us only up to an inch or so. Temperatures also now look to climb to 35+, not the original 30-32 forecasted. So all in all, I'm sticking to my original call of 1 to 1.5 inches for NE NJ and NYC area This is the most realistic forecast that I've seen on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looks like Upton has expanded their 4-6" slightly for Orange County.. Nice little 4-5" event for many up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looks like Upton has expanded their 4-6" slightly for Orange County.. Nice little 4-5" event for many up here Not really sure why they expanded... Or have a 4-6 area of precip to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Not really sure why they expanded... Or have a 4-6 area of precip to begin with Ratios.. Only about .25-.30 of precip 15:1 thats 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looks like Upton has expanded their 4-6" slightly for Orange County.. Nice little 4-5" event for many up here This has the look of a disjointed mess that can't get its act together in time for us but does for eastern New England. I don't see many people getting more than 3" out of all this. And the immediate coast still looks like it warms well into the 30s if not 40. It might still surprise one way or the other but it may be a case of our longitude screwing us in favor of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Nothing support 4-5 inches of snow in Orange County looks like 1-3 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Nothing support 4-5 inches of snow in Orange County looks like 1-3 at best. Give it time. Looks like it will pile gradually through the day. Like I said it won't take much for it to accumulate up here. On the coast its a different story. 09z SREF just came in with .25"-.50" areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Nothing support 4-5 inches of snow in Orange County looks like 1-3 at best. Then why would a 3-5" WWA be issued lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 25.5 in Lynbook, trace on the ground, flurries in the air..any hope for a couple of inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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