SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I might worry about Suffolk in this scenario more than Nassau westward, the NAM 12Z BUFKIT has 2 inches snow at LGA then over to rain then back to snow, it warms the bloundary layer on a SSW wind but I'm not sure with the airmass we'll have in place nor a S-SW wind if thats going to be enough to kill the boundary layer except for central and eastern LI...a SW wind is a much different story than SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Almost feels like a big surprise will unfold at the last minute NYC/LI and points northeast. 4-6 inches when set and done, if we keep trending favorably each model cycle. Let's get those mall piles started soon. They'll be mountains by February at this rate, then lock them in sleet and ice, to keep them through mid April, even for Long Island. A snowman farting this winter will make it snow this year. Take it easy there im in SW suffolk county on LI and borderline events my location is typically on the losing end. I wouldnt say the pattern has been perfect but were not far off from entering a great stretch of winter weather if some certain teleconnectors start cooperating. Who knows, maybe january may have something big in store for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I might worry about Suffolk in this scenario more than Nassau westward, the NAM 12Z BUFKIT has 2 inches snow at LGA then over to rain then back to snow, it warms the bloundary layer on a SSW wind but I'm not sure with the airmass we'll have in place nor a S-SW wind if thats going to be enough to kill the boundary layer except for central and eastern LI...a SW wind is a much different story than SE The climatological difference in nassua compared to sw-suffolk eastward is very different. Many storms i remember nassua would get 6-8" on average and we would get 2" or less. Borderline storms usually arent good for suffolk east. I didnt even really pay attention yesterday to this storm as it was one of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The climatological difference in nassua compared to sw-suffolk eastward is very different. Many storms i remember nassua would get 6-8" on average and we would get 2" or less. Borderline storms usually arent good for suffolk east. I didnt even really pay attention yesterday to this storm as it was one of those How much snow did you get yesterday? I got 2.9", and it's all gone now. Hoping this clipper will help us out. I've been juked out on every snow event this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Take it easy there im in SW suffolk county on LI and borderline events my location is typically on the losing end. I wouldnt say the pattern has been perfect but were not far off from entering a great stretch of winter weather if some certain teleconnectors start cooperating. Who knows, maybe january may have something big in store for us With this horrible pattern you have already surpassed your normal snowfall for December..not to bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 How much snow did you get yesterday? I got 2.9", and it's all gone now. Hoping this clipper will help us out. I've been juked out on every snow event this season. you didn't live through the 70's 80's and 90's did you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 you didn't live through the 70's 80's and 90's did you? No, didn't start 'membering stuff until the 90's and I could only imagine what it was like back then. The 80's weren't that great out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 No, didn't start 'membering stuff until the 90's and I could only imagine what it was like back then. The 80's weren't that great out here. thats putting it lightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 So far on the 12z nam. The 1st one tues am has about .2 QPF 850s minus. 6. Surface temps low 30s around the city. what also helps is the sun angle is at its lowest of the season with the lowest amount of daylight in the season - minus 6 850's and low 30's surface = accumulating snow as long as the other layers are cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 what also helps is the sun angle is at its lowest of the season with the lowest amount of daylight in the season - minus 6 850's and low 30's surface = accumulating snow as long as the other layers are cold enough Model consensus right now appear to b 1 to 2 a cross the area but more one into nwnj on into central CT will take it. Got 10 inches of snow from 3 events in 1 week before Dec 15. All gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 thats putting it lightly In the 70's 80's and 90's yesterday's snowfall would have been significant especially for December,where in those decades it hardly ever snowed in December..the last 13 years are really not common especially near the coast..the 60's was a great decade for pre Christmas snow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 you didn't live through the 70's 80's and 90's did you? Mean Annual Snowfall (1980-81 - 1989-90) Westbury (Nassau County.): 25.44" Brookhaven Lab / Upton OKX: 25.41" LaGuardia Airport: 21.66" John F Kennedy Airport: 20.28" Central Park: 19.74" Westbury Annual Snowfall: 1980-81: 22.7" 1981-82: 27.5" 1982-83: 31.4" 1983-84: 30.4" 1984-85: 28.8" 1985-86: 16.5" 1986-87: 33.4" 1987-88: 24.4" 1988-89: 15.8" 1989-90: 23.5" Mean: 25.44" Westbury Notable Snowstorms: 1/7/81: 6.9" 3/5/81: 10.4" 1/14/82: 8.1" 4/6/82: 8.8" 12/12/82: 5.7" 2/12/83: 16.5" 1/11/84: 4.7" 1/18/84: 5.7" 3/9/84: 7.0" 12/27/84: 6.8" 1/17/85: 5.5" 2/6/85: 4.9" 2/8/86: 4.0" 2/11/86: 4.1" 1/23/87: 8.2" 1/26/87: 4.6" 2/23/87: 4.8" 1/4/88: 7.1" 1/9/88: 6.8" 12/13/88: 3.7" 1/6/89: 6.2" 11/23/89: 7.2" 2/25/90: 4.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 on the 12Z Nam the .25 line goes from North Central NJ - through Long Island and the rest of North Jersey http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2013121512/namconus_apcpn_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 RGEM at 45 and 48 hours...FYI rain snow line is Sandy Hook and just south of LI, it actually shows a mix down there although in this scenario probably would not see PL just SN or RA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 How much snow did you get yesterday? I got 2.9", and it's all gone now. Hoping this clipper will help us out. I've been juked out on every snow event this season. Roughly about the same. It was nice but seeing it washed away sucked lol. The clipper i cant see more than 2-3" area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z RGEM looks decent for most on this forum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 With this horrible pattern you have already surpassed your normal snowfall for December..not to bad Not too bad at all. If it sounds like im complaining im not, jus saying that were not far off from having a MECS inducive pattern develop. Im happy with the snow so far as your right it has put me above average for winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 RGEM at 45 and 48 hours...FYI rain snow line is Sandy Hook and just south of LI, it actually shows a mix down there although in this scenario probably would not see PL just SN or RA... sw looks pretty energetic (as modeled). think it can dig a little more south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 that would be snow I guess..NWS calling for rain? The soundings show temperatures rising above 0°C up to 925 mb, so the snow changes to rain in the NYC area and parts of Long Island. Hopefully, the system will dig a little more southward to produce a better outcome, as the snow-rain line is not too far to the north of the City/most of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z RGEM at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The soundings show temperatures rising above 0°C up to 925 mb, so the snow changes to rain in the NYC area and parts of Long Island. Hopefully, the system will dig a little more southward to produce a better outcome, as the snow-rain line is not too far to the north of the City/most of Long Island. 12z GFS hints at just that. Further south and deeper. Through minus 6 air at 850 the heavier the precip the more likely snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Gfs has snow starting late tomorrow night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Hah gfs, has 2-4" from clipper 1 and then 12 hours later another inch or two with a second clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The GFS see a second piece behind little suspect on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The GFS see a second piece behind little suspect on that one Euro had a similar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 This was probably one of the great per-Christmas winter periods...cold and frequent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Euro had a similar solution. Yeh. I See it. Not sure if it's case of the second one weakening as it comes east. Wana see the Euro later deepen the 1st one first like the gfs then go from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z GFS hints at just that. Further south and deeper. Through minus 6 air at 850 the heavier the precip the more likely snow here I agree. The GFS might be a bit colder than the NAM, but I haven't seen the soundings yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 LOL, GFS tries to pull an inverted trof behind the storm too, can't make this stuff up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Unbelieveable period that we are in, considering the indicies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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