IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 0z RGEM hits gives the northern burbs a solid snowstorm.. Pretty nice hit from Southern Westchester County going north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Having the HRRR not on board is a little disconcerting considering how solid it has been of late. The RGEM was closer to the HRRR but still not fully there, we'll see what the GFS does...this is the HRRR's 15z depiction, notice the initial band has swung through and the 2nd area over PA is moving ENE towards the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It looks like the 00z models are focusing on the early afternoon "wave"...It looks like the initial burst, ala EURO, is going to be light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 gfs has light snow in the area by 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 hr 15 light snow continues... hr 18 light snow rates are not that impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 hr 21 light snow…gfs going with the 2nd wave again hr 24 steady snow 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 hr 27 mod snow hr 30 light snow total qpf .5 from nyc-east…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 hr 27 mod snow hr 30 light snow total qpf .5 from nyc-east…. What about south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 What about south? .5 goes west to gsp and .25 back towards phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 As per the GFS there is an initial batch that works through as snow , then theres a break and the GFS warms the surface at hr 18 while we are dry , but by hr 24 - it looks like dynamics take over and because the 850`s are so cold they are minus 6 , once the precip refires , the column cools . There`s a lot of precip on the coast close to .80 lets hope that's mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The overall evolution of the GFS seems weird to me, and given its performance in Chicago this past weekend I wouldn't put much stock into it. Can't believe I'm saying this, but going with the NAM, subtracting 0.1-0.15 qpf off its last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Gfs almost combining both waves...widespread 0.5" + from south amboy to just south of Philly s/e...0.25" all of nj except nw corner. This is almost a secs on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The all snow line looks to be closest to .50 , looks like Ocean county on south are warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 How's lower Hudson valley look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The overall evolution of the GFS seems weird to me, and given its performance in Chicago this past weekend I wouldn't put much stock into it. Can't believe I'm saying this, but going with the NAM, subtracting 0.1-0.15 qpf off its last run Amazing that as a system is about to move in, models still have no clue what's going to happen. The two shortwaves and interactions between both look to still be causing chaos with the models. I'm sticking with my guess for now of C-2" along the immediate south shore, 2-4" north of the Northern State Parkway. The RGEM would still be a massive torch on south winds for Long Island in the afternoon, and may even get rain briefly into the majority of NYC. Hopefully the second part gets stronger in future runs as it would be behind the warm push tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The gfs is showing huge potential that these types of storms can sometimes produce, it strongly focuses on the second piece of energy and starts to blow it up. I think this may be a trend since the 18z picked it up first and now it's getting stronger. Either the gfs is out to lunch or we might have a big surprise on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The gfs is showing huge potential that these types of storms can sometimes produce, it strongly focuses on the second piece of energy and starts to blow it up. I think this may be a trend since the 18z picked it up first and now it's getting stronger. Either the gfs is out to lunch or we might have a big surprise on our hands. GGEM showed this yesterday as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The gfs is showing huge potential that these types of storms can sometimes produce, it strongly focuses on the second piece of energy and starts to blow it up. I think this may be a trend since the 18z picked it up first and now it's getting stronger. Either the gfs is out to lunch or we might have a big surprise on our hands. Yea it would catch a lot of people of guard... lol like usual we are 8 hours away and still have a pretty big discrepancy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 0.1 around EWR. Falls in line with the original thinking....1-1.5" for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 0.1 around EWR. Falls in line with the original thinking....1-1.5" for me The whole event is .3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yea it would catch a lot of people of guard... lol like usual we are 8 hours away and still have a pretty big discrepancy Yup, this is the type of system I could see just completely shock people and forecasters because it's almost a completely nowcast event where the models play catch up the entire time. I'll stick with the current forecasts of course but that surprise potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The whole event is .3" Why do so many posters see such different amounts? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The whole event is .3" Yeh EWR is .35 , its 4 inches there if the GFS is right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The key will be the first wave really needs to go to crap, if it does as the GFS more or less shows more than any other model the 2nd system is allowed to blow up closer to the area because the first system does not pull the entirely thermal gradient/trof off the coast, if the GFS is correct and is still headed towards the eventual solution this could be a massive bust on the high end for most of the area...but right now I think its gonna fall somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Sorry...just glanced I didn't realize the second event actually came into our area and gives EWR 3" total....4-5" SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Why do so many posters see such different amounts? Rossi Because the gfs only has a tenth or so through 1 pm but more later in the day and evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 New HRRR is still favoring the GFS, looks like a nice band heading towards NYC (It is at 15 hours however) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 noticed the ridging ahead of this was stronger from 18z to 00z on gfs. so I decided to look at this and compare. Ridging looks even a hair stronger here. correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't that argue for more digging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 New HRRR is still favoring the GFS, looks like a nice band heading towards NYC (It is at 15 hours however) Ptype also basically shows rain/snow line literally from just off the south shore of LI that could be a good sign since the HRRR tends to be too aggressively warm on the mix and rain snow lines beyond 6-8 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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