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December 17th Clipper Potential


Radders

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Having the HRRR not on board is a little disconcerting considering how solid it has been of late.

 

The RGEM was closer to the HRRR but still not fully there, we'll see what the GFS does...this is the HRRR's 15z depiction, notice the initial band has swung through and the 2nd area over PA is moving ENE towards the area...

 

1ref_t3sfc_f15.png

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As per  the GFS there is an initial batch that works through as snow , then theres a break and the GFS warms the surface at hr 18  while we are dry , but by hr 24 - it looks like dynamics take over and because the 850`s are so cold they are  minus 6 , once the precip  refires , the column cools  . There`s  a lot of precip on the coast close to .80  lets hope that's mostly snow

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The overall evolution of the GFS seems weird to me, and given its performance in Chicago this past weekend I wouldn't put much stock into it. Can't believe I'm saying this, but going with the NAM, subtracting 0.1-0.15 qpf off its last run

Amazing that as a system is about to move in, models still have no clue what's going to happen. The two shortwaves and interactions between both look to still be causing chaos with the models. I'm sticking with my guess for now of C-2" along the immediate south shore, 2-4" north of the Northern State Parkway. The RGEM would still be a massive torch on south winds for Long Island in the afternoon, and may even get rain briefly into the majority of NYC. Hopefully the second part gets stronger in future runs as it would be behind the warm push tomorrow.

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The gfs is showing huge potential that these types of storms can sometimes produce, it strongly focuses on the second piece of energy and starts to blow it up. I think this may be a trend since the 18z picked it up first and now it's getting stronger. Either the gfs is out to lunch or we might have a big surprise on our hands. 

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The gfs is showing huge potential that these types of storms can sometimes produce, it strongly focuses on the second piece of energy and starts to blow it up. I think this may be a trend since the 18z picked it up first and now it's getting stronger. Either the gfs is out to lunch or we might have a big surprise on our hands.

GGEM showed this yesterday as well

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The gfs is showing huge potential that these types of storms can sometimes produce, it strongly focuses on the second piece of energy and starts to blow it up. I think this may be a trend since the 18z picked it up first and now it's getting stronger. Either the gfs is out to lunch or we might have a big surprise on our hands. 

Yea it would catch a lot of people of guard... lol like usual we are 8 hours away and still have a pretty big discrepancy

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Yea it would catch a lot of people of guard... lol like usual we are 8 hours away and still have a pretty big discrepancy

 

Yup, this is the type of system I could see just completely shock people and forecasters because it's almost a completely nowcast event where the models play catch up the entire time. I'll stick with the current forecasts of course but that surprise potential is there. 

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The key will be the first wave really needs to go to crap, if it does as the GFS more or less shows more than any other model the 2nd system is allowed to blow up closer to the area because the first system does not pull the entirely thermal gradient/trof off the coast, if the GFS is correct and is still headed towards the eventual solution this could be a massive bust on the high end for most of the area...but right now I think its gonna fall somewhere in between.

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New HRRR is still favoring the GFS, looks like a nice band heading towards NYC (It is at 15 hours however)

Ptype also basically shows rain/snow line literally from just off the south shore of LI that could be a good sign since the HRRR tends to be too aggressively warm on the mix and rain snow lines beyond 6-8 hours

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