December 17th Clipper Potential

[Wxnyc]

We don't have blocking so storms are riding far north.

Correct me if I'm wrong , but it's a fine line , sometimes major blocking can cause storms to move well off to our south missing us too.

[doncat]

A point of clarification:  not all warm temperatures are a "torch".  For example, you are not "torching" if east winds off the ocean bump you to 40 degrees.

 

In the etymology of internet weather boards, a "torch" meant a strong, fast, flow of modified pacific air, generally on strongish west winds, that got temps into the 50s+.  It was called a torch because it was a "torch" of mild air shooting across the country from the Pacific. 

 

HTFH.

Thank you... one of the most over used words on weather boards. Will usually be used at the first sign of temps getting above freezing at any level.

[winterwarlock]

yep, could be over 10 for the season after tomorrow. It has been a great start to the season. Looks like we are done with snow chances after tomorrow until after xmass

 

 

it has been an awesome plowing season....3 inches for the first storm, 3.5 last time, and maybe 2 inches tomorrow...all enough to do all the accounts but none of them a pain in the ass. This is how the storms are suppose to be, not the 1-2 foot crap anomalies that cropped up.

[sferic]

I'm sticking with original map and will go down fighting if they don't verify.

 

For Long Island 3-6 too?

[Absolute Humidity]

Yes, even the South Shore even if some rain mixes in. This includes both waves.

[REDMK6GLI]

For Long Island 3-6 too?

 its a wide reaching clipper lol. but I can see the island getting up to 5-6" If some of the banding sets up over us. I think the mixing should be nill tomorrow as well

[mimillman]

IMO, the writing on the wall is there for the south shore of Long Island. Clipper doesn't deepen fast enough to stay snow. May be a quick burst at the beginning but that's it.

[REDMK6GLI]

IMO, the writing on the wall is there for the south shore of Long Island. Clipper doesn't deepen fast enough to stay snow. May be a quick burst at the beginning but that's it.

 

that would be no surprise then. story of the south shore of LI

[WE GOT HIM]

IMO, the writing on the wall is there for the south shore of Long Island. Clipper doesn't deepen fast enough to stay snow. May be a quick burst at the beginning but that's it.

It will have to do with the intensity of the precip. Mod or more it will be almost all snow.

[Rjay]

In the winter its wind direction for LI...plain and simple. Dynamics can help in marginal setups but otherwise, anything with east or south of east winds and its game over

[TWCCraig]

 its a wide reaching clipper lol. but I can see the island getting up to 5-6" If some of the banding sets up over us. I think the mixing should be nill tomorrow as well

 

That's going a little too far. We're not getting any more than an inch and half at best on the south shore. The only place that could see 5-6" on LI is extreme north shore where elevated, and 5-6" there would even be a miracle. We're not talking 25:1 ratios.

[REDMK6GLI]

That's going a little too far. We're not getting any more than an inch and half at best on the south shore. The only place that could see 5-6" on LI is extreme north shore where elevated, and 5-6" there would even be a miracle. We're not talking 25:1 ratios.

 

meant north shore sorry

[Rjay]

That's going a little too far. We're not getting any more than an inch and half at best on the south shore. The only place that could see 5-6" on LI is extreme north shore where elevated, and 5-6" there would even be a miracle. We're not talking 25:1 ratios.

2-4 isn't out of the question by any means...we'll see

[PB GFI]

That's going a little too far. We're not getting any more than an inch and half at best on the south shore. The only place that could see 5-6" on LI is extreme north shore where elevated, and 5-6" there would even be a miracle. We're not talking 25:1 ratios.

 Theres .40 on the North Shore at 12 to 1 they prob get 5 , Ive been in Laurell Hollow too since 05 NS does well with these .

[TWCCraig]

meant north shore sorry

 

It's all good. Hope we can actually pull off more than an inch here on the south shore. Would be nice. Good luck tm  

[TWCCraig]

 Theres .40 on the North Shore at 12 to 1 they prob get 5 , Ive been in Laurell Hollow too since 05 NS does well with these .

 

If the second wave pulls off a little surprise then it's not out of the question, no doubt. HRRR would be useful tomorrow as it has done well recently.

[PB GFI]

If the second wave pulls off a little surprise then it's not out of the question, no doubt. HRRR would be useful tomorrow as it has done well recently.

I never believed in that 2 nd feature - I kinda ignored the  18z GFS there , it didn't  have any other support so I thnk its best to focus on the 1 st wave ,

Think u can get 1 to 3 before it mixes at the end .

[REDMK6GLI]

It's all good. Hope we can actually pull off more than an inch here on the south shore. Would be nice. Good luck tm

Thanks! Im looking forward to the potential for christmas eve/ christmas. This storm and this stretch has been pretty good though and im enjoying it though

[NorthShoreWx]

 Theres .40 on the North Shore at 12 to 1 they prob get 5 , Ive been in Laurell Hollow too since 05 NS does well with these .

 

I am confused.  I thought that you were in Colts Neck, NJ?

[SnowGoose69]

If the second wave pulls off a little surprise then it's not out of the question, no doubt. HRRR would be useful tomorrow as it has done well recently.

The latest HRRR is suggesting the possibility the GFS may be into something it looks to roll some light snow through here 10-15z and then it goes dry but down to the southwest there is some interesting activity going on back over the MA and PA, it sure looks way more like the 18z GFS than any other 12z guidance to me, I'll tell you that much

[Zelocita Weather]

The latest HRRR is suggesting the possibility the GFS may be into something it looks to roll some light snow through here 10-15z and then it goes dry but down to the southwest there is some interesting activity going on back over the MA and PA, it sure looks way more like the 18z GFS than any other 12z guidance to me, I'll tell you that much

Does it look like the 2nd batch would make it into the area?

[SnowGoose69]

Does it look like the 2nd batch would make it into the area?

Entirely possible if that scenario unfolded we would get missed, it all depends where the surface low forms

[Guest Pamela]

Entirely possible if that scenario unfolded we would get missed, it all depends where the surface low forms

 

Does this storm bear similarity to the March 7th, 1984 event, in your opinion (it sort of seems similar to me)

[NorthShoreWx]

Any old timers remember the robust clipper on 12/15/1989.  Was a disappointment in NYC and LI, but not up in Stowe where I was that day:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLGA/1989/12/15/DailyHistory.html

 

Hopefully this one won't be similar.  Same time of year, different winter (I hope).

 

The really strong ones (tomorrow's is kind of a weak one until it hits the coast) have a tremendous temp contrast, but are usually pretty dry for the areas that get warm sectored.  They are windy little buggers.

[PB GFI]

I am confused.  I thought that you were in Colts Neck, NJ?

Built my laurel hollow house in 05. Still own it. Built colts neck in 2010. Spend most time there. But I go to LH once a week to check on property

[Guest Pamela]

Any old timers remember the robust clipper on 12/15/1989.  Was a disappointment in NYC and LI, but not up in Stowe where I was that day:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLGA/1989/12/15/DailyHistory.html

 

Hopefully this one won't be similar.  Same time of year, different winter (I hope).

 

The really strong ones (tomorrow's is kind of a weak one until it hits the coast) have a tremendous temp contrast, but are usually pretty dry for the areas that get warm sectored.  They are windy little buggers.

 

December 1989 was a sad month.  Incredibly cold and almost no snow.  I do think the NWS issued a WWA that day for the area, but nothing came of it.  I do think Rockland County saw 5 inches of snow, IIRC.

[Guest Pamela]

Built my laurel hollow house in 05. Still own it. Built colts neck in 2010. Spend most time there. But I go to LE once a week to check on property

 

Nice area / 4 acre zoning.

[Absolute Humidity]

I'm sticking to my guns here. No changes.

[SnowGoose69]

Any old timers remember the robust clipper on 12/15/1989. Was a disappointment in NYC and LI, but not up in Stowe where I was that day:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLGA/1989/12/15/DailyHistory.html

Hopefully this one won't be similar. Same time of year, different winter (I hope).

The really strong ones (tomorrow's is kind of a weak one until it hits the coast) have a tremendous temp contrast, but are usually pretty dry for the areas that get warm sectored. They are windy little buggers.

If anything this reminds me a bit of the 1/16/92 bust in its setup

[PB GFI]

Nice area / 4 acre zoning.

3 In LH  But  I back to the preserve then the water    11 in CN