jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM spikes eastern Suffolk well into the 40s tomorrow. 50 almost makes it to Montauk Point. Whatever snow that falls for most of Suffolk tomorrow looks like it's gone very quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM spikes eastern Suffolk well into the 40s tomorrow. 50 almost makes it to Montauk Point. Whatever snow that falls for most of Suffolk tomorrow looks like it's gone very quick. After this weekend very few people on this board will have any snow left come Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM spikes eastern Suffolk well into the 40s tomorrow. 50 almost makes it to Montauk Point. Whatever snow that falls for most of Suffolk tomorrow looks like it's gone very quick. Agree. Full out torch out here. Smart of Upton to not put up any advisories for the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 RAP @ 18 HRS is like the GFS @ 384 True, but it tends to have a severe N and W bias at the end of its range so if it really is suppressed right now thats unusual...the coastal snow last week the RAP showed snow in Albany 18 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I have around 3 inches on the ground now up in White Plains, can get to 6 inches on the ground after tomorrow. This is what we had before the rain saturday night. Will all be gone by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Could they possibly have come up with a less distinct color scheme several degrees either side of freezing? Can anyone actually see where the freezing line is on the wxbell maps. It is somewhere in the "white" area. I think people like these maps because they can imagine the 32 line where they want it to be. These are pretty, but that's about it. Yeah, the only temp anyone really cares about on that map is indecipherable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm not totally resigned to much of the storm being rain on the south shore, but it definitely at least looks iffy. The trends so far haven't been bad but it appears too little, too late. Central Park may have double the amount of snow Long Beach has for December after this. And then you walk to the end of the block on the north end of the Island and can almost reach out and touch the Manhattan skyline across the marshes and you think 'so close, but so far' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 And then you walk to the end of the block on the north end of the Island and can almost reach out and touch the Manhattan skyline across the marshes and you think 'so close, but so far' You definitely notice about midway through Queens how much colder it was and how much snowier Saturday was. I made it to almost 10 degrees warmer than Central Park got. Tomorrow might be another example-it may be 40 degrees at my house and 31-32 in Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm thinking a coating to 2 inches sounds good for my hometown, much of which may be washed away when it changes to rain. I don't think this will be that impressive very close to the shore, and at least half of it will be rain along the immediate coast. Looks like the low will just about straddle the barrier islands toward the ENE, which will make for onshore flow. For northern NYC and northern LI along with the rest of the area, I'd say 2-4" sounds good.Looking at the 18z NAM, the warmest 850s approach around hour 24 at -3C. This happens to coincide with the heaviest lift in the column, which should keep the boundary layer cold. Although the models have trended a little north and warmer, the intensity also looks better. It's going to be a close call on the south shore, but I think I'll be OK. You might mix for a while. Heavy omega and low dews argues for accumulating snow. LGA is at 29/7 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 in the mid 20's here, snow will have no problem sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 in the mid 20's here, snow will have no problem sticking Yeah agree this looks like a quick in and out 2 or 3 inch type CNJ - NYC with some isolated amounts higher and lower. Great start to the month but we look to get a break the next week or so through Christmas. Amazing contrast how from the NE to the SE and how warm its been over there vs out cold since Dec 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looking at the 18z NAM, the warmest 850s approach around hour 24 at -3C. This happens to coincide with the heaviest lift in the column, which should keep the boundary layer cold. Although the models have trended a little north and warmer, the intensity also looks better. It's going to be a close call on the south shore, but I think I'll be OK. You might mix for a while. Heavy omega and low dews argues for accumulating snow. LGA is at 29/7 right now. I'll be in Midtown for the snow tomorrow, so hopefully no issues where I am. I agree the heavy precip might hold off rain for a while, but I think it eventually gets the entire south shore. Hopefully the storm is more front-loaded out ahead of the low, and the precip is ending when the warmest air arrives. Even better would be a minor south trend tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM spikes eastern Suffolk well into the 40s tomorrow. 50 almost makes it to Montauk Point. Whatever snow that falls for most of Suffolk tomorrow looks like it's gone very quick. ..frustrating that all events have had changeover issues..with this one being no exemption. ..love the ocean in the summer..winter ??..not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 ..frustrating that all events have had changeover issues..with this one being no exemption. ..love the ocean in the summer..winter ??..not so much. We don't have blocking so storms are riding far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah agree this looks like a quick in and out 2 or 3 inch type CNJ - NYC with some isolated amounts higher and lower. Great start to the month but we look to get a break the next week or so through Christmas. Amazing contrast how from the NE to the SE and how warm its been over there vs out cold since Dec 5. yep, could be over 10 for the season after tomorrow. It has been a great start to the season. Looks like we are done with snow chances after tomorrow until after xmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 ..frustrating that all events have had changeover issues..with this one being no exemption. ..love the ocean in the summer..winter ??..not so much. We should continue to expect situations like these as long as there's no blocking. Even when it's cold like today, the warm air is never far away. We have gotten lucky though with the few minor snow events we've had this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 yep, could be over 10 for the season after tomorrow. It has been a great start to the season. Looks like we are done with snow chances after tomorrow until after xmass It's hard to believe we've had years that we've had no measurable snowfall up until this point. Even years where we haven't dropped below freezing yet in the cities. Pretty impressive that we've only not dropped below freezing 5 days this month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 gfs holds steady .25+ light-mod snow all day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's hard to believe we've had years that we've had no measurable snowfall up until this point. Even years where we haven't dropped below freezing yet in the cities. Pretty impressive that we've only not dropped below freezing 5 days this month so far. the -epo is really saving us, if not for that we would be torching. The snow pack has that cement look to it, which usually happens in mid winter! Very impressive for december, unplowed areas have not melted along the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 gfs holds steady .25+ light-mod snow all day tomorrow Really trying to favor the second wave more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 gfs holds steady .25+ light-mod snow all day tomorrow Actually I'm only seeing .19" and some of that is in the afternoon with temps above freezing. a bit of a drop from this morning's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 A point of clarification: not all warm temperatures are a "torch". For example, you are not "torching" if east winds off the ocean bump you to 40 degrees. In the etymology of internet weather boards, a "torch" meant a strong, fast, flow of modified pacific air, generally on strongish west winds, that got temps into the 50s+. It was called a torch because it was a "torch" of mild air shooting across the country from the Pacific. HTFH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Really trying to favor the second wave more. In a big way, wow looking very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I would ignore that GFS run for now and closely watch the HRRR over the next 4 hours to see what its showing near the end of its runs right now I'm passing that off as an 18Z run burp although we did see some high res models trying to favor that 2nd disturbance too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I would ignore that GFS run for now and closely watch the HRRR over the next 4 hours to see what its showing near the end of its runs right now I'm passing that off as an 18Z run burp although we did see some high res models trying to favor that 2nd disturbance too.Rpm yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah that GFS run was very close to the RPM run from earlier today, just a less juiced version. Should be a fun day tomorrow to see what scenario plays out. And if clipper 1 or 2 is more of a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Where the hell do you access the RPM from anyway, I've never looked at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Where the hell do you access the RPM from anyway, I've never looked at it WSI? I thought you worked in aviation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 WSI? I thought you worked in aviation. Yeah, don't use any of their stuff though, just used to have some radar data from them but not anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Where the hell do you access the RPM from anyway, I've never looked at itno clue I just see it posted and the local news lives to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.