wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 18z RAP is south, cold and snowy for NYC and vicinity, at least through hour 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 18z RAP is south, cold and snowy for NYC and vicinity, at least through hour 18. looks too south. Where is the low, Delaware? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 RAP @ 18 HRS is like the GFS @ 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Early look on the new NAM is south....but too early to tell 100% yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Mt.Holly. 000WWUS41 KPHI 161956WSWPHIURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ256 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013...WINTERS EMPHATIC DECEMBER START WITH BELOW NORMAL COLD ANDFREQUENT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE WITH A QUICK HITTING SNOW EVENTTUESDAY MORNING....HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTEAS LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REFORMS SOUTH OF LONGISLAND ON TUESDAY.NJZ001-007>009-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-170930-/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0025.131217T1000Z-131217T2000Z/SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE256 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PMEST TUESDAY.* LOCATIONS...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM WEST OF PHILADELPHIANORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS INTO NORTHWESTNEW JERSEY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TWO TO 4 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW WILL FALLDURING A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD BEGINNING AROUND 5 AM. THE SNOWWILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM.* WINDS...WILL BE LIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...WILL ONLY RISE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 DEGREES ASTHE SNOW ENDS DURING MIDDAY OR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S DURINGTHE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SNOW CREATING VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONSON ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. PLAN ON MORNING TRAVEL DELAYS ANDLEAVE EARLIER TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION ON TIME. TRAVEL CONDITIONSSHOULD IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW TAPERSOFF.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.&&$NJZ010-012>015-018>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-170930-/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0025.131217T1100Z-131217T2100Z/SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN256 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PMEST TUESDAY.* LOCATIONS...NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIAAND ITS NEARBY SUBURBS TO NEW BRUNSWICK NEW JERSEY INCLUSIVE OFALL OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY TO THE COAST.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED DURINGTHE MORNING. LEFTOVER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE DURINGTHE AFTERNOON IN EAST CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST NEWJERSEY... PARTICULARLY MIDDLESEX AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED3 OR 4 INCH STORM TOTALS MAY OCCUR.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 5 AM AND 7 AM AND END FROMWEST TO EAST BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM.* WINDS...WILL BE LIGHT.* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WITHTEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ALL UNTREATEDSURFACES WILL BE SLIPPERY AND HAZARDOUS. PLAN ON MORNING TRAVELDELAYS AND LEAVE EARLIER TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION ON TIME.TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AFTERNOONAS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AND TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.&&$DRAG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 i never understand why people are always so preoccupied with whether or not WSW or WWA will be issued, when we always essentially know what they're (upton) expecting via maps and discussions on the NOAA site. Have been thinking the same this morning. We have access to so much data and model output nowadays ... the WSWs or WWAs are great for the general public that might otherwise be oblivious, but for people on this forum they seem pretty irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 WWA issued for me. 2-5" expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Upton issued winter weather advisory as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 A handful of SREF members develop another coastal slp with the 2nd wave and hit areas from DCA to NYC with light to moderate precip (likely snow). With such intense PVA with the 2nd s/w, it's definitely something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY309 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013...MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE TONIGHTINTO TUESDAY...CTZ005>012-NYZ078-079-177-170415-/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0017.131217T1200Z-131217T2300Z/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-309 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHERN LONG ISLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.* VISIBILITIES...VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 1/2 MILES OR LESSFOR BRIEF PERIODS TUESDAY MORNING.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR...ANDBECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES BY MID MORNING. SNOWWILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE START OF THE AFTERNOONRUSH HOUR.* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY ROADWAYS ANDHAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOONCOMMUTES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.&&$MALOIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Nam .25+ again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm thinking a coating to 2 inches sounds good for my hometown, much of which may be washed away when it changes to rain. I don't think this will be that impressive very close to the shore, and at least half of it will be rain along the immediate coast. Looks like the low will just about straddle the barrier islands toward the ENE, which will make for onshore flow. For northern NYC and northern LI along with the rest of the area, I'd say 2-4" sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 no advisory for the south shore, makes sense with possible BL temp issues and higher qpf to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm thinking a coating to 2 inches sounds good for my hometown, much of which may be washed away when it changes to rain. I don't think this will be that impressive very close to the shore, and at least half of it will be rain along the immediate coast. Looks like the low will just about straddle the barrier islands toward the ENE, which will make for onshore flow. For northern NYC and northern LI along with the rest of the area, I'd say 2-4" sounds good. Think a dusting to 1" is best we can do here. Surface looks cold to start but we later get torched in the BL, change to rain, melting any snow we pick up. Temps climb into the mid 30's. Not expecting much to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 In the winter wether advisory upton says 2-5. On the precip map it shows 1-2 for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The NAM is .35 plus The 850`s start at minus 6 - never get below minus 3 , surface temps in the 20`s So looking a solid 4 inch snow based on this from upper Monmouth County through the Lower Hudson valley and points east . There mayb some mixing at the end from Ocean county to the south facing shore , but 90 perc will hav fallen by then . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 no advisory for the south shore, makes sense with possible BL temp issues and higher qpf to the north. I'm not totally resigned to much of the storm being rain on the south shore, but it definitely at least looks iffy. The trends so far haven't been bad but it appears too little, too late. Central Park may have double the amount of snow Long Beach has for December after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 These are your surface temps, by hour 24 , that's the precip which has already fallen , if u rain under this with minus 3 air ,' then your just in a bad spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The NAM is .35 plus The 850`s start at minus 6 - never get below minus 3 , surface temps in the 20`s So looking a solid 4 inch snow based on this from upper Monmouth County through the Lower Hudson valley and points east . There mayb some mixing at the end from Ocean county to the south facing shore , but 90 perc will hav fallen by then . SREF mean have much of Long Island as rain by 15z, at which point the worst of the storm is happening and several hours may be left to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 SREF mean have much of Long Island as rain by 15z, at which point the worst of the storm is happening and several hours may be left to go. Look at the NAM surface at 15z , Not saying it cant happen , but the NAM isn't saying rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Look at the NAM surface at 15z , Not saying it cant happen , but the NAM isn't saying rain This was the 12z snowfall, similar to Upton forecast: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 These are your surface temps, by hour 24 , that's the precip which has already fallen , if u rain under this with minus 3 air ,' then your just in a bad spot Could they possibly have come up with a less distinct color scheme several degrees either side of freezing? Can anyone actually see where the freezing line is on the wxbell maps. It is somewhere in the "white" area. I think people like these maps because they can imagine the 32 line where they want it to be. These are pretty, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm not totally resigned to much of the storm being rain on the south shore, but it definitely at least looks iffy. The trends so far haven't been bad but it appears too little, too late. Central Park may have double the amount of snow Long Beach has for December after this. double the amount of snow is stretching it i think....i know jfk isn't "long island",but cpk is only about an inch more so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm not totally resigned to much of the storm being rain on the south shore, but it definitely at least looks iffy. The trends so far haven't been bad but it appears too little, too late. Central Park may have double the amount of snow Long Beach has for December after this. With borderline QPF to reach 4 inches in many areas to begin with Upton has to go with no advisories on the south shores because they'd be less than 50% confidence of 4 inches, even 1-2 hours of some rain would prevent many places from reaching 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This was the 12z snowfall, similar to Upton forecast: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OKX 2 to 4 probably Could they possibly have come up with a less distinct color scheme several degrees either side of freezing? Can anyone actually see where the freezing line is on the wxbell maps. It is somewhere in the "white" area. I think people like these maps because they can imagine the 32 line where they want it to be. These are pretty, but that's about it. I cant speak to how Ryan wrote the algo , but if that's the worst hes ever gona hear about his maps , he will take it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This was the 12z snowfall, similar to Upton forecast: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OKX Looks good , there`s a lot of 4 inch amounts on that map , not over my house , but I think that looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 2 to 4 probably I cant speak to how Ryan wrote the algo , but if that's the worst hes ever gona hear about his maps , he will take it . They are not useful for someone plotting where the freezing line is in their backyard. Not that they should be used for that, but it seems many here do. Which Ryan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 They are not useful for someone plotting where the freezing line is in their backyard. Not that they should be used for that, but it seems many here do. Which Ryan? Maue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 2 to 4 probably I cant speak to how Ryan wrote the algo , but if that's the worst hes ever gona hear about his maps , he will take it . The map really isnt the simplest lol. Isobars may not of hurt to differentiate the temp profiles thats just about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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