mob1 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z NMM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fhrw-nmm%2F12%2Fhrw-nmm_eus_048_precip_p48.gif&model=hrw-nmm-eus&area=eus¶m=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= .50 + for the NYC area lol, it jackpots your house. I think 2-3 for a good part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Hoping to get into some of the "heavier" banding tommorow as the clipper hits the coast. But your right there may be some localized warning level totals (5" or more) but nothing that should warrant county wide WSW 5" in 12 hours is not warning criteria. 6" is WSW criteria here. Forecasts of 3 - 6" (which is not the current forecast) are also usually treated as an advisory. They might go with a winter storm warning in that situation if they thought there would be widespread 6" totals and/or unusually high impact was expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 SREF PLUMES RANGE FROM <1 INCH SNOW TO ALMOST 7 INCHES WITH AMIDPOINT AROUND 4 INCHES. THIS SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN THE HIGHER QPFFIELDS IN THE NAM. WILL SIDE WITH RFC/WPC QPF AND GO WITH 1/4-1/3INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT...AND RESULTS IN 2-4 INCHES SNOWFALL ONTUESDAY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH WPC WINTER WEATHER GUIDANCE FORTHE AREA AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILLTOP OFF AT 2-4 INCHES...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BENEEDED FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTERSTORM WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The Euro is the furtherst N , its the Warmest and doesnt match up with other guidance . I would dismiss it , but i think its too warm . The second piece Flys thru DC Balt area and straight on out . Still thnk the Euro is 1 to 3 accross the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The Euro is the furtherst N , its the Warmest and doesnt match up with other guidance . I would dismiss it , but i think its too warm . The second piece Flys thru DC Balt area and straight on out . Still thnk the Euro is 1 to 3 accross the area Why would you dismiss it for? Because you don't like what it shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The Euro is the furtherst N , its the Warmest and doesnt match up with other guidance . I would dismiss it , but i think its too warm . The second piece Flys thru DC Balt area and straight on out . Still thnk the Euro is 1 to 3 accross the area This is probably one of those events where the meso models and higher resolution models are probably what we should follow, but I'll still go with 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Sigh. Most of that for Long Island and maybe even the city is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Why would you dismiss it for? Because you don't like what it shows? Nah , RGEM NAM GFS all colder and wetter , only Consensus , if the other models rally to it , then ok but why should i buy buy it because i like the model . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Sigh. Most of that for Long Island and maybe even the city is rain. All the other models are more south and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 RGEM total snowfall accumulation, through 36 hours. rgem_snow_acc_nyc_13.png 3-4" of snow over Union County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 3-4" of snow over Union County. More like 5-6" and it is over .5 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 All the other models are more south and colder. It's possible that the clipper is too far north on this run and it could be further south, but you can't just dismiss the idea that it could be too warm near the coast for snow. We have very little room for error-if the system is over or north of us, it's rain-guaranteed. We need it to preferably be 30 miles or more south of us to keep the warm ocean air away. I guess it's a good sign though that the Euro is the furthest north by far and hasn't shown a lot of consistency over the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 More like 5-6" and it is over .5 QPF. The snowfall map might be wrong then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It should have said I WOULDNT dismiss it , just re read what i wrote - I still thnk its wrong , its outside the other models guidance and I never use the Euro for surface temps . Could the S SHORE mix sure, but that happens in almost every marginal storm . Think the rest of the Area is fine , considering the Euro is the wamest and still has the 0 line through the City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The snowfall map might be wrong then. Could have to do with mixing as well. Snow maps FTL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It should have said I WOULDNT dismiss it , just re read what i wrote - I still thnk its wrong , its outside the other models guidance and I never use the Euro for surface temps . Could the S SHORE mix sure, but that happens in almost every marginal storm . Think the rest of the Area is fine , considering the Euro is the wamest and still has the 0 line through the City Euro has been shaky so far since Nov. for our area at least. Missed by a reasonable margin on timing/temp profiles the past few storms. While the Euro could prove itself correct, the fact that there's a general consensus on the other models far enough away from what it's showing to see a difference, does lead to some caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 SREF PLUMES RANGE FROM <1 INCH SNOW TO ALMOST 7 INCHES WITH A MIDPOINT AROUND 4 INCHES. THIS SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF FIELDS IN THE NAM. WILL SIDE WITH RFC/WPC QPF AND GO WITH 1/4-1/3 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT...AND RESULTS IN 2-4 INCHES SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH WPC WINTER WEATHER GUIDANCE FOR THE AREA AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL TOP OFF AT 2-4 INCHES...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL. You do know this is from about 4 am this morning, way before today's 12Z models came out don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Mount holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 You do know this is from about 4 am this morning, way before today's 12Z models came out don't you? It was in repsonse to someone asking if they would issue WSW , so it was there low end confidence i key `d on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The euro is not rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It was in repsonse to someone asking if they would issue WSW , so it was there low end confidence i key `d on Anybody who thinks a WSW will be issued is hallucinating. This is a 2-4" event to the coast with locally more under best lift/ banding as it hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The euro is not rain It may be a little too warm for its QPF/isobar depiction, which is sagged to the south of Long Island, but as it is it's definitely cutting it close along the shores if that map is correct (I don't have access to any soundings). Northern NYC/Long Island and definitely anywhere interior are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Sigh. Most of that for Long Island and maybe even the city is rain. Not 1 drop is rain for the city. City is 25 degrees when the precip arrives and 31 degrees when it ends (the frame you commented on is the end). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It may be a little too warm for its QPF/isobar depiction, which is sagged to the south of Long Island, but as it is it's definitely cutting it close along the shores if that map is correct (I don't have access to any soundings). Northern NYC/Long Island and definitely anywhere interior are fine. You need to look at hour 24. Not hour 30. Hour 24, NYC is in the mid 20s. The immediate south shore coast of LI, always struggles in these types of situations. I doubt NYC and 90% of it's boroughs rains at all. Maybe drizzle for the last 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Not 1 drop is rain for the city. City is 25 degrees when the precip arrives and 31 degrees when it ends (the frame you commented on is the end). That's good then. I don't have access to those kind of details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 RAP hour 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Latest SREF's are a bit north...mostly NNJ gets the best action. May I also add...this will be the second time this month (twice in one week) of having new snowfall on top of previously fallen snow. Very uncommon for this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Latest SREF's are a bit north...mostly NNJ gets the best action. May I also add...this will be the second time this month (twice in one week) of having new snowfall on top of previously fallen snow. Very uncommon for this neck of the woods. Southern end of .25 line looks to be along I-195....about the same as 09z. Biggest difference is this run is producing additional measurable (.1) thru central and southern NJ with second impulse Tuesday evening, the 09z run had virtually nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Anybody who thinks a WSW will be issued is hallucinating. This is a 2-4" event to the coast with locally more under best lift/ banding as it hits the coast. i never understand why people are always so preoccupied with whether or not WSW or WWA will be issued, when we always essentially know what they're (upton) expecting via maps and discussions on the NOAA site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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