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December 17th Clipper Potential


Radders

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Looks like me here in SW suffolk i may still be able to eek out 2-4" according to the NAM. Hopefully i get some banding to develop over me as well ;)

Cant wait to see what some of our hi-res models like the HRRR has to say about the placement of the heaviest snowfall

If it goes south of us and we stay away from onshore winds, we could see a few inches of snow in only a few hours. It's really going to go to town once it hits the Atlantic.

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If it goes south of us and we stay away from onshore winds, we could see a few inches of snow in only a few hours. It's really going to go to town once it hits the Atlantic.

Yea the atlantic will give it that much needed moisture feed after getting through the moisture-sapping mountains to our west. Hoping if goes off the central jersey coast

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This could surprise some folks, clippers can be very unpredictable and when you're tapping into Atlantic moisture, locally high amounts are possible.

I think someone could get up to 8" or more from this, probably just to our NE.

.35 qpf runs right through the area , i think if someone sees 5 that would be the top end based on this  

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The RGEM made a move towards the NAM finally, here is its 18Z ptype depiction, most likely this is all snow...this sort of system you're really not gonna get a mix zone, its either snow or rain and my guess is most of the mix zone verifies as snow if this exact track occurred...for the record it showed rain past NYC on its run last night at this time period...

 

gemreg12_PT.11.gif?t=1387207225

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The RGEM made a move towards the NAM finally, here is its 18Z ptype depiction, most likely this is all snow...this sort of system you're really not gonna get a mix zone, its either snow or rain and my guess is most of the mix zone verifies as snow if this exact track occurred...for the record it showed rain past NYC on its run last night at this time period...

 

gemreg12_PT.11.gif?t=1387207225

I'd like to see it maybe 30 miles or so south of there, but seeing the RGEM shift south a little is encouraging.

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What appears likely is a minimum of 1, and probably around 2 inches of snow for NENJ/NYC metro area. This will be very nice and freshen up the snowpack that remains (about 2.5" or so here). It will all fall in a period of 3 hours with some light snow or flurries lingering for another 1-2 hours

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