PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Very good run Monmouth county north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Drier for sure, but still a good amount of QPF and no precipitation type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 4k NAM is wet and cold. Eastern LI changes over in the later frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Earliest possible start time for NYC and Western Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looks like me here in SW suffolk i may still be able to eek out 2-4" according to the NAM. Hopefully i get some banding to develop over me as well Cant wait to see what some of our hi-res models like the HRRR has to say about the placement of the heaviest snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Earliest possible start time for NYC and Western Long Island? 10-11z probably knowing the NAM is usually slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 So, like a 6 to 8 hour event? and what is JFK's maximum QPF per any model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looks like me here in SW suffolk i may still be able to eek out 2-4" according to the NAM. Hopefully i get some banding to develop over me as well Cant wait to see what some of our hi-res models like the HRRR has to say about the placement of the heaviest snowfall If it goes south of us and we stay away from onshore winds, we could see a few inches of snow in only a few hours. It's really going to go to town once it hits the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 So, like a 6 to 8 hour event? and what is JFK's maximum QPF per any model? The latest Nam seemed to have about 0.3"-0.4" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 4km NAM with the best solution I've seen yet. Banding develops on a SW to NE trajectory underneath great lift. 5-6" from Union County Northeast through NYC including NW Long Island and SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 If it goes south of us and we stay away from onshore winds, we could see a few inches of snow in only a few hours. It's really going to go to town once it hits the Atlantic. Yea the atlantic will give it that much needed moisture feed after getting through the moisture-sapping mountains to our west. Hoping if goes off the central jersey coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Nam is a 7am to 12pm event with a 2 hour period where the majority falls. 10am to 12pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This could surprise some folks, clippers can be very unpredictable and when you're tapping into Atlantic moisture, locally high amounts are possible. I think someone could get up to 8" or more from this, probably just to our NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The 4km would be good news for most spots excluding the immediate South Shore as the coastal front hangs up near Sunrise Highway on Long Island. Could see enhanced banding just north of this overrunning zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Very good run for S CT. NE NJ/NYC on the western edge of the precip of more than 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 And I live half a mile North of Sunrise Highway ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This could surprise some folks, clippers can be very unpredictable and when you're tapping into Atlantic moisture, locally high amounts are possible. I think someone could get up to 8" or more from this, probably just to our NE. .35 qpf runs right through the area , i think if someone sees 5 that would be the top end based on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM still seems to track the low very close to the South Shore and makes temps marginal toward the end of it for the shoreline, but by then hopefully the clipper has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM snowfall map, looks ok to me... http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM snowfall map, looks ok to me... http://wxcaster.com/legends/TotalSnowFall_Legend.png Link does not work! Do you have to pay for these maps? I heard they are accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM snowfall map, looks ok to me... http://wxcaster.com/legends/TotalSnowFall_Legend.png No picture attached Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The RGEM made a move towards the NAM finally, here is its 18Z ptype depiction, most likely this is all snow...this sort of system you're really not gonna get a mix zone, its either snow or rain and my guess is most of the mix zone verifies as snow if this exact track occurred...for the record it showed rain past NYC on its run last night at this time period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 No picture attached I fixed, its off earl barkers free site http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The RGEM made a move towards the NAM finally, here is its 18Z ptype depiction, most likely this is all snow...this sort of system you're really not gonna get a mix zone, its either snow or rain and my guess is most of the mix zone verifies as snow if this exact track occurred...for the record it showed rain past NYC on its run last night at this time period... I'd like to see it maybe 30 miles or so south of there, but seeing the RGEM shift south a little is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 light snow in the area at hr 24 gfs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 hr 27 steady period of snow moving into the area from phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 hr 30 steady snow for everyone... some banding for eastern monmouth county .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 What appears likely is a minimum of 1, and probably around 2 inches of snow for NENJ/NYC metro area. This will be very nice and freshen up the snowpack that remains (about 2.5" or so here). It will all fall in a period of 3 hours with some light snow or flurries lingering for another 1-2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 hr 33 steady snow to low end mod from ne jersey towards long island.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 .25+ from phl-boston this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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