PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Nice to see that the 03z SREF were once again pretty amped up. How do they look temp wise City SE ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 A bit questionable SE of the city and near the shores.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21TYPNE_3z/srefloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 WPC has a fairly aggressive percentage of 4 or greater over much of NNJ by 18z Tues. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 A bit questionable SE of the city and near the shores.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21TYPNE_3z/srefloop.html#picture Thanks 15 Members change , 6 don't . Everyonse 78 N and w of TPKE safe . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 A bit questionable SE of the city and near the shores.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21TYPNE_3z/srefloop.html#picture John --- any chance this thing really blows up? Are any indiv members showing something that could lead to more or is best to just assume a nice 1-4 event or so inch area wide? WPC looks aggressive and the NAM did a farily nice job on snow amounts in this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 A bit questionable SE of the city and near the shores.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21TYPNE_3z/srefloop.html#picture Look at the 6z 4km NAM and RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 These are the warmest the surface temps get , 850`s Minus 3, pretty good precip rate , the push of warmth has to be at 925 mb that changes the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Look at the 6z 4km NAM and RGEM Not particularly saying I agree..just noting the SREF solution. I do think this has the chance to be a solid advisory level event for most areas north of Trenton. I'll be interesting to see if some better banding can develop on Long Island and over CT into SNE once the storm gets to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Not particularly saying I agree..just noting the SREF solution. I do think this has the chance to be a solid advisory level event for most areas north of Trenton. I'll be interesting to see if some better banding can develop on Long Island and over CT into SNE once the storm gets to the coast. Often, I find when models show better banding or VVs over LI, the bl winds up too warm. We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Not particularly saying I agree..just noting the SREF solution. I do think this has the chance to be a solid advisory level event for most areas north of Trenton. I'll be interesting to see if some better banding can develop on Long Island and over CT into SNE once the storm gets to the coast. I'm not sold yet on no changeover at the coast, the 06z RGEM was a nose better than the 00Z but I thought the 06Z NAM and GFS went north, especially through 24 hours over PA, they were not so much north thereafter vs. 00z...to me 4-8 weeks from now this is definitely not a changeover event because the short duration of the fetch from the SE or ESE would be over water temps in the 30s and would not warm the BL much but this time of year it may....but I still think probably only Suffolk county goes over assuming we do see mixing, I'm not sure coastal NJ sees a changeover because their surface winds may be more SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 06z Gfs has the entire tri-state with .25, CNJ through NYC, LI Northwards with a .5 swath. Will be an interesting few runs today. 2 possibilities that have to be watched one is a weaker system that comes through southern NJ with a lack of precip along it and south of it which also leads to the rain/snow line being further north. Number 2 is a system that gathers moisture and is a little further south across extreme southern NJ and intensifies when it hits the warmer water which will lead to higher amounts and more frozen in NYC Metro - just have to wait for future model runs to get a handle on these possibilities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 2 possibilities that have to be watched one is a weaker system that comes through southern NJ with a lack of precip along it and south of it which also leads to the rain/snow line being further north. Number 2 is a system that gathers moisture and is a little further south across extreme southern NJ and intensifies when it hits the warmer water which will lead to higher amounts and more frozen in NYC Metro - just have to wait for future model runs to get a handle on these possibilities...That 6z qpf analysis was incorrect btw. Everyone gets .10 with .25 extending from the central jersey shore to NYC and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Clipper track comes north and redevelopment too late and spreads the swath of significant snows further N and E....just another usual clipper story;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The track shifted a little too far north with a mild onshore flow as the best UVV's pass over us. Im inclined to wait for the new NAM, SPC WRF, RGEM and high res models before declaring this dead at the coast. It's an advisory level snowfall for much of Northern NJ regardless...near the coast obviously a lot more variability based on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 What do you think for areas like EWR? About 1-2, MAYBE 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 What do you think for areas like EWR? About 1-2, MAYBE 3? IMO, 1-2 is the better guess. And 2 is pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I think you're being a little pessimistic on EWR, they should get 2-4 IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 What do you think for areas like EWR? About 1-2, MAYBE 3? Sounds about right, someone's getting 3" if the banding develops as the higher resolution models are showing http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_6z/rad35.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Is the flow that strong off the water that it will scour out all the cold air that will be draped over the coast tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Is the flow that strong off the water that it will scour out all the cold air that will be draped over the coast tomorrow morning? The high is in bad spot over Maine. It won't keep our winds from turning S/E, by afternoon, along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The Euro actually wasn't terrible...has two different light waves and 0.3-0.4" of accumulated precip through 60 hr with 3" from EWR to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Is the flow that strong off the water that it will scour out all the cold air that will be draped over the coast tomorrow morning? Yes. Winds turning south will do away with any cold air very fast. We all learned this the hard way two nights ago. This is what we can continue to expect as long as there is no blocking northeast of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The high is in bad spot over Maine. It won't keep our winds from turning S/E, by afternoon, along the coast. But isn't the event over by afternoon anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The Euro actually wasn't terrible...has two different light waves and 0.3-0.4" of accumulated precip through 60 hr with 3" from EWR to NYCLock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yes. Winds turning south will do away with any cold air very fast. We all learned this the hard way two nights ago. This is what we can continue to expect as long as there is no blocking northeast of us. That was a strong coastal front. I don't think we can really compare the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 But isn't the event over by afternoon anyway? No. Models have precip into mid-afternoon. Heaviest precip coming in between 15z and 18z. 6z runs had winds turn SE at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That was a strong coastal front. I don't think we can really compare the two. All models though have 40s right off the beach and surging in if the winds turn south. If the models continue heading north at 12z I think this is essentially another north and west favored event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM looks great at 27 hr...surface low a bit stronger and farther southeast. Some banding looks to be developing over NE NJ/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM looks great at 27 hr...surface low a bit stronger and farther southeast. Some banding looks to be developing over NE NJ/NYC. This is a quick hitting storm on the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM looks great at 27 hr...surface low a bit stronger and farther southeast. Some banding looks to be developing over NE NJ/NYC. Looks faster tomorrow morning with 700vvs. It would help, bring in banding earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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