bluewave Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 8:30 PM, earthlight said: We've got some lift here, boys. nam_w700_rh_ne_16.png I am hoping the last minute adjustments break in our favor. The clipper last winter really surprised the people in Southern New Jersey as the precip shield verified outside what the models were showing and turned into a nowcast special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 8:54 PM, earthlight said: 4km NAM says yes...very similar solution. hires_ref_neng_43.png Could be a very fun few hours for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 8:57 PM, jm1220 said: Could be a very fun few hours for this area. even me in SW Suffolk should get some good snowfall with that 4km nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 8:57 PM, jm1220 said: Could be a very fun few hours for this area. So long as the boundary layer cooperates I could see a period of heavy snow over Long Island and Connecticut. Once the surface low hits the coast you should start to see some more organized banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 8:57 PM, jm1220 said: Could be a very fun few hours for this area. looks pretty good. Not too concerned with p-type, as long as it goes south of LI think we're ok. Def looks improved from this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Upton going for a changeover to rain - upper 30's in the afternoon http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 8:31 PM, earthlight said: South winds at 10m..those 40's are lurking very close to the coast. This environment surrounding a clipper on January 19, 2005 was different, but there are enough similarities to make this one worthy of recall. Sea water temps were in the mid 40's, land temps were very cold to start and we got a moderate snowfall on a south wind. Most of that was OES related and winds did shift west as the clipper got closer: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kfok/2005/1/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA http://www.northshorewx.com/images/sidebars/OES-20050119.gif http://www.northshorewx.com/images/sidebars/SkewT-OKX-20050119-1200Z.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 9:05 PM, EasternLI said: looks pretty good. Not too concerned with p-type, as long as it goes south of LI think we're ok. Def looks improved from this morning We have to watch out for any south winds out ahead of this. The NAM shows 40s right off the beaches. But as long as it goes south of our latitude I think we're okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 9:09 PM, NEG NAO said: Upton going for a changeover to rain - upper 30's in the afternoon http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html The soundings still warm the atmosphere bringing about the changeover for the NYC area. It's a closer call than the 12z run, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 8:55 PM, bluewave said: I am hoping the last minute adjustments break in our favor. The clipper last winter really surprised the people in Southern New Jersey as the precip shield verified outside what the models were showing and turned into a nowcast special. The NAM looks like it's the furthest north of all the models. In that case we should be fine as long as there's no last minute north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 9:12 PM, jm1220 said: We have to watch out for any south winds out ahead of this. The NAM shows 40s right off the beaches. But as long as it goes south of our latitude I think we're okay. This lower reso ensemble mean from the Euro looks like it may be a few miles north of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 9:13 PM, donsutherland1 said: The soundings still warm the atmosphere bringing about the changeover for the NYC area. It's a closer call than the 12z run, though. I think intensity is going to play a role in this event with borderline temps in the lower layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Well, it looks like Mother Nature might be playing it fair. Gives NYC area an inch or two with the first wave, and further south into phl/southern NJ gets an inch or two with the second lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 9:13 PM, donsutherland1 said: The soundings still warm the atmosphere bringing about the changeover for the NYC area. It's a closer call than the 12z run, though. Having the euro a bit colder is reassuring. The 4km, higher resolution NAM is also cooler with dynamics bringing the temperature down and keeping the precipitation snow over Northern NJ, NYC, LI and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 9:12 PM, jm1220 said: We have to watch out for any south winds out ahead of this. The NAM shows 40s right off the beaches. But as long as it goes south of our latitude I think we're okay. True, notice the surface reflection goes right over us(18z nam). To the north of it, temps are not an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Hwo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 18z rgem is a nice hit. It shows 11mm. LI has boundary layer problems though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 9:20 PM, earthlight said: Having the euro a bit colder is reassuring. The 4km, higher resolution NAM is also cooler with dynamics bringing the temperature down and keeping the precipitation snow over Northern NJ, NYC, LI and CT. I agree. The GFS was colder, as well, at 12z. We'll see what this run shows. Hopefully, it will remain sufficiently cold for an all snow event across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 9:35 PM, Snow88 said: 18z rgem is a nice hit. It shows 11mm. LI has boundary layer problems though. All of Long Island of south facing eastern parts? How does LI or JFK and Islip do QPF wise as opposed to Central Park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 hr 39 09z tuesday gfs has light snow spreading over area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 hr 42 steady snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 hr 45 mod snow for the immediate metro area…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 18z RGEM 4-5" from NE NJ to NYC and SE NY/SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 hr 48 steady snow falling…temps are plenty cold. Looks like .4+ for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 9:24 PM, EasternLI said: True, notice the surface reflection goes right over us(18z nam). To the north of it, temps are not an issue It's 18z high res is colder and all snow for u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 9:42 PM, earthlight said: 18z RGEM 4-5" from NE NJ to NYC and SE NY/SW CT. Im assuming about the same for LI unless the best lift and track of the low materializes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 9:44 PM, Allsnow said: hr 48 steady snow falling…temps are plenty cold. Looks like .4+ for the metro area Nice. It looks maybe a little north of 12z though. We need to keep it south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Temps at 48 upper 20s most places. 0c east end and SNJ. Max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 On 12/15/2013 at 9:46 PM, jm1220 said: Nice. It looks maybe a little north of 12z though. We need to keep it south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 And it sees the 2 nd round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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