Radders Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Thread to discuss clipper threat... Medium range guidance is hinting that a clipper system will swing through and bring light snows to the forecast area on Tuesday/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I can't even think about this yet lol I'll drive myself nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Euro has a few inches. So does the GGEM for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Euro has a few inches. So does the GGEM for NYC. GGEM is snow to rain for the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 18Z GFS is weaker with just some light precip across the area. A surface low pressure develops in eastern MA off the cape - This looks to be more of an ENE event if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 ENE always gets the most snow it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 0z NAM looks better just North and West. Prob 1 to 2. Surface at the coast r in the upper 30 s. so south and east of the city as per nam. That's not accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 0z NAM looks better just North and West. Prob 1 to 2. Surface at the coast r in the upper 30 s. so south and east of the city as per nam. That's not accumulating snow. Will have to monitor somewhat if this can dig a bit further south, could be a nice surprise for SNE though. As of now I'm thinking under an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Didn't the 12z ggem have a inverted trough after the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Will have to monitor somewhat if this can dig a bit further south, could be a nice surprise for SNE though. As of now I'm thinking under an inch. The further south this comes off the better the chance our flow is from the NE and the surface is more workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 00z gfs still shows it. I like these, they can be sneaky around here. Just needs to dig enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Both 0z NAM & GGEM show 3-4" event for areas just NW of the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Both 0z NAM & GGEM show 3-4" event for areas just NW of the city.. Could be a nice little event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The 0z EURO 6z NANand 06z GFSlook to drop 1 to 2 inches area wide. And slightly more NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 After this doesnt look like any legit snow threats till 2014. The warm up next weekend as far as its longevity is still yet to be determined on the globals. Truth be told, we could have the -EPO/+PNA still strongly be there by then but with no atlantic blocking we saw what that meant last night with a 1040 high to our north....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 After this doesnt look like any legit snow threats till 2014. The warm up next weekend as far as its longevity is still yet to be determined on the globals. Truth be told, we could have the -EPO/+PNA still strongly be there by then but with no atlantic blocking we saw what that meant last night with a 1040 high to our north....... That's a pretty bold statement-you've seen how fast the models can change-look at last weekend's and early this past week, none of that was modeled more than a few days out. Active pattern, I'll take my chances with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The 0z EURO 6z NANand 06z GFSlook to drop 1 to 2 inches area wide. And slightly more NE 06Z NAM for KSWF Showing 6.1" of snow StnID: kswf Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 131217/1300Z 55 16006KT 20.2F SNOW 19:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 19:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 131217/1400Z 56 17007KT 21.6F SNOW 19:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 19:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 131217/1500Z 57 17007KT 22.5F SNOW 16:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 18:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0 131217/1600Z 58 17005KT 23.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 17:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 131217/1700Z 59 VRB02KT 23.8F SNOW 14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 16:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0 131217/1800Z 60 VRB01KT 24.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 16:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 131217/1900Z 61 VRB02KT 24.3F SNOW 18:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 16:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0 131217/2000Z 62 VRB02KT 24.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 17:1| 5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0 131217/2100Z 63 VRB01KT 24.5F SNOW 18:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 17:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0 131217/2200Z 64 VRB02KT 24.5F SNOW 21:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0 131217/2300Z 65 25003KT 24.5F SNOW 21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 17:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0 131218/0000Z 66 23003KT 24.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 17:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 After this doesnt look like any legit snow threats till 2014. The warm up next weekend as far as its longevity is still yet to be determined on the globals. Truth be told, we could have the -EPO/+PNA still strongly be there by then but with no atlantic blocking we saw what that meant last night with a 1040 high to our north.......NYC got 5" of snow last night, which is more than the entire average snowfall for December. The -EPO has helped us get 3 snow events in one week: in Southern Brooklyn, I had 0.5" on 12/8, 2" on 12/10 and 3.5" on 12/14. And I'm on one of the warmest parts of the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 After this doesnt look like any legit snow threats till 2014. The warm up next weekend as far as its longevity is still yet to be determined on the globals. Truth be told, we could have the -EPO/+PNA still strongly be there by then but with no atlantic blocking we saw what that meant last night with a 1040 high to our north....... Don't be so sure of that, the GFS/Euro right now show that system being rain but they love doing that in split flow patterns beyond Day 5-7 with that sort of setup...don't be surprised at all if the SE ridge is more suppressed than currently shown and that ends up being another winter storm threat, with good timing it could be a major snow event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Don't be so sure of that, the GFS/Euro right now show that system being rain but they love doing that in split flow patterns beyond Day 5-7 with that sort of setup...don't be surprised at all if the SE ridge is more suppressed than currently shown and that ends up being another winter storm threat, with good timing it could be a major snow event here. I know what you mean, this could be a full winter storm warning / ice storm event next weekend for the entire NYC metro area. In my opinion, this pattern is definately for real, means business and a 93-94 redux, without sounding too crazy. I think next weekend event will exceed this event with major snow / ice down to the LI beaches. I think this winter goes cold and snowy consistently and is relentless straight through mid March with no breaks. In other words 3 months with straight snow cover till true spring comes in, I really feel it coming for the NYC area, maybe a once or twice in a lifetime winter inbound. I think we also will skip the January thaw, and have a day at 5 aboce zero F, and a night below -5 in he tristate area with 1-2 feet of snow on the ground at som point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Don't be so sure of that, the GFS/Euro right now show that system being rain but they love doing that in split flow patterns beyond Day 5-7 with that sort of setup...don't be surprised at all if the SE ridge is more suppressed than currently shown and that ends up being another winter storm threat, with good timing it could be a major snow event here. Yeh I didn't wana comment on the clipper thread but u can see how this cold air had loved to push so far this year 3 days ago it was goin up west of the mtns. Now it's east. Hopefully in the D 3 to 5 we get something closer to hatters then u deal w precip type The warm up is muted w this snow cover. Prob 2 days above. Then it's a matter of getting the arctic boundary south of in time. Like the clipper. Looks like 2 small events. So at least it's mood snow tues and wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 06Z NAM for KSWF Showing 6.1" of snow StnID: kswf Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 131217/1300Z 55 16006KT 20.2F SNOW 19:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 19:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 131217/1400Z 56 17007KT 21.6F SNOW 19:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 19:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 131217/1500Z 57 17007KT 22.5F SNOW 16:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 18:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0 131217/1600Z 58 17005KT 23.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 17:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 131217/1700Z 59 VRB02KT 23.8F SNOW 14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 16:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0 131217/1800Z 60 VRB01KT 24.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 16:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 131217/1900Z 61 VRB02KT 24.3F SNOW 18:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 16:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0 131217/2000Z 62 VRB02KT 24.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 17:1| 5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0 131217/2100Z 63 VRB01KT 24.5F SNOW 18:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 17:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0 131217/2200Z 64 VRB02KT 24.5F SNOW 21:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0 131217/2300Z 65 25003KT 24.5F SNOW 21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 17:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0 131218/0000Z 66 23003KT 24.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 17:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 0| 0| 0 Wow good for u guys. Think it's a 1 to 2 type in an around the city. But this has trended south and a bit stronger for us over the last 2 days. So we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Yeh I didn't wana comment on the clipper thread but u can see how this cold air had loved to push so far this year 3 days ago it was goin up west of the mtns. Now it's east. Hopefully in the D 3 to 5 we get something closer to hatters then u deal w precip type The warm up is muted w this snow cover. Prob 2 days above. Then it's a matter of getting the arctic boundary south of in time. Like the clipper. Looks like 2 small events. So at least it's mood snow tues and wed It looks like the Tuesday clipper brings 2-3 inches of snow to LI and 3-6 just north and east. Any further adjustments south and it is 3-6 for Long Island, possible ? The end of week warm up is slowly dying and will be gone by mid-week, I bet the stout -EPO will kill the end of week torch north of 40 North, and give us an ice or snow warning event next weekend. I would hedge that way than over a cutter. Our next 40-45 degree day may be many many weeks away based on the pattern. Many days or weeks at or below freezing look almost certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Don't be so sure of that, the GFS/Euro right now show that system being rain but they love doing that in split flow patterns beyond Day 5-7 with that sort of setup...don't be surprised at all if the SE ridge is more suppressed than currently shown and that ends up being another winter storm threat, with good timing it could be a major snow event here. Maybe i shouldve been more explicit with my explanation. I meant to say the current pattern we are in is not really conducive ( in comparison to textbook east coast cyclogenesis patterns ). Really our biggest snow makers have been with +PNA, -AO/NAO and transitioning from strongly negative to nuetral -NAO in particular. Can our current pattern "tweaked" a bit produce a big snow storm on the east coast? Yes, but is it totally ideal to achieve such an outcome? Not ideally, there are chances in medium/long range and the models have had difficulty post D5 determining the location/concentration of the coldest arctic air in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Yeh I didn't wana comment on the clipper thread but u can see how this cold air had loved to push so far this year 3 days ago it was goin up west of the mtns. Now it's east. Hopefully in the D 3 to 5 we get something closer to hatters then u deal w precip type The warm up is muted w this snow cover. Prob 2 days above. Then it's a matter of getting the arctic boundary south of in time. Like the clipper. Looks like 2 small events. So at least it's mood snow tues and wed I don't know about anyone else but I prefer a pattern with a chance of a light to moderate event every several days instead of one Major or Historic storm then nothing for a month. Anyways this clipper should be mainly frozen - models don't pick up on this widespread snowcover too well which helps to lower temps........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I don't know about anyone else but I prefer a pattern with a chance of a light to moderate event every several days instead of one Major or Historic storm then nothing for a month. Anyways this clipper should be mainly frozen - models don't pick up on this widespread snowcover too well which helps to lower temps........... So far on the 12z nam. The 1st one tues am has about .2 QPF 850s minus. 6. Surface temps low 30s around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 So far on the 12z nam. The 1st one tues am has about .2 QPF 850s minus. 6. Surface temps low 30s around the city. that would be snow I guess..NWS calling for rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 So far on the 12z nam. The 1st one tues am has about .2 QPF 850s minus. 6. Surface temps low 30s around the city. Almost feels like a big surprise will unfold at the last minute NYC/LI and points northeast. 4-6 inches when set and done, if we keep trending favorably each model cycle. Let's get those mall piles started soon. They'll be mountains by February at this rate, then lock them in sleet and ice, to keep them through mid April, even for Long Island. A snowman farting this winter will make it snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 srefs don't look horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 that would be snow I guess..NWS calling for rain?The surface in Suffolk county looks meh. The issue w the south shore with these events are the winds turn southerlyFor a few hours before the precip starts 2 days out. I hav to imagine its light snow But they will clear it up in there AFD use that. If they say rain then worry. don't use the point and click Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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