nzucker Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 off topic but interesting is the NAM for next week. Lais down 2-3" over NNJ and it does redevelop for NE. (for those awake and here). On Topic: Am very interested to read a final synopsis of this one given the stubborn and powerful cold. Did ANY model come close to modeling the cold correctly? It was off more than 10 degrees or more here at midnight on the major models... The general rule with SW flow events that have a strong high to the north is that the surface warms slower than modeled and the mid-levels warm faster than modeled, leading to more sleet than expected. This was certainly true last night although we did spike to around 40F in Bay Ridge when the marine layer moved inland. Looks like a weak clipper with 1-3" possible for Tuesday night into early Wesnesday, especially north and west. Surface temps might be questionable right along the coast despite the antecedent cold with highs in the 20s Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 off topic but interesting is the NAM for next week. Lais down 2-3" over NNJ and it does redevelop for NE. (for those awake and here). On Topic: Am very interested to read a final synopsis of this one given the stubborn and powerful cold. Did ANY model come close to modeling the cold correctly? It was off more than 10 degrees or more here at midnight on the major models... Poor model performance in my area...had over 4 inches of snow by 5pm (They had closer to an inch) and a decent ice storm after the changeover, Temps stayed below freezing the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Here's a pic of my street this morning. Still slushed covered even after all that rain last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 While snow depths will look to be significantly less than they were before the freezing rain and then rain hit, unless one had temps well over 40F for an extended time (and I don't think most did), not much melting actually occurred - the reduction in snow depth is mostly due to compaction, as several inches of snow pack can easily absorb the rain that fell. I'm pretty sure the liquid equivalent of the snow cover this morning on my lawn is very close to what it was last night before the temp went above 32F - it's just much more compacted. See the excerpt from a NOAA publication below: "Air temperature is still the most important factor in melting snow. Rain will usually not add much heat to the process. At 40 degrees, one inch of rain will only produce a tenth of an inch of added water from snow melt. However, rainfall is often accompanied by windy and humid conditions which can greatly accelerate snow melt. At the same time, frozen ground will result in more of the available water running off directly to streams." http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dvn/downloads/backgrounder_DVN_Snow_Melt.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I'm surprised by the amount of rain that fell and how long it lasted...This storm reminds me of January 11th 1991 when a storm with similar results happened but it was a little milder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I'm surprised at the amount of snow we have left, it was absolutely pouring last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Totals from Upton http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS Those numbers are off.. I ended with 9.5 back home in new windsor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 really icy out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I'm surprised by the amount of rain that fell and how long it lasted...This storm reminds me of January 11th 1991 when a storm with similar results happened but it was a little milder... We had a strong 700mb-900mb jet with a pwat spike last night. Some convergence along the coastal front as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Had 1.0 inches of rain after the changeover here in Sheepshead Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Never mad above freezing last night. Temp rose to 30.6 than dropped back down into mid 2os. 6 inches of snow followed by heavy sleet than light freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Made it to 35 here....a little over 5" of snow followed by a coating of ice, then rain, then another coating of ice....probably still 3"+ on ground. Nice !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Snow is all gone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Those numbers are off.. I ended with 9.5 back home in new windsor Didn't u have old snow on the ground before this ? U don't add both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Didn't u have old snow on the ground before this ? U don't add both I had absolutely 0 measurable snow before this storm.. I'm not dumb dude lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Those numbers are off.. I ended with 9.5 back home in new windsor FYI, the latest report showed 8.5" for New Windsor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 FYI, the latest report showed 8.5" for New Windsor. Yea I saw that.. Thanks, I look at those initial numbers and was like no way haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 About 8" total here in Hopewell Junction, Dutchess. Horrible layer of crust to deal with when shoveling. Pretty much in line with the predicted totals from ALY of 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 About 8" total here in Hopewell Junction, Dutchess. Horrible layer of crust to deal with when shoveling. Pretty much in line with the predicted totals from ALY of 8-10 Really? There's wasn't any icing from what I could tell in new windsor area... At my job at West Point there was quit a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 About 8" total here in Hopewell Junction, Dutchess. Horrible layer of crust to deal with when shoveling. Pretty much in line with the predicted totals from ALY of 8-10 Really? There's wasn't any icing from what I could tell in new windsor area... At my job at West Point there was quit a bit I think I must have caught some sleet/IP at the tail end of the storm. It doesn't take much! Looking at the historic radar images it looks like it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 About 8" total here in Hopewell Junction, Dutchess. Horrible layer of crust to deal with when shoveling. Pretty much in line with the predicted totals from ALY of 8-10 5.9" storm total, about 10 miles north of you on Rt 82. Lots of reports from both my south and north of 7-8" total, and I have about 600 ft elevation. Must have started sleeting a bit earlier. Not a bad event overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 About 8" total here in Hopewell Junction, Dutchess. Horrible layer of crust to deal with when shoveling. Pretty much in line with the predicted totals from ALY of 8-10 5.9" storm total, about 10 miles north of you on Rt 82. Lots of reports from both my south and north of 7-8" total, and I have about 600 ft elevation. Must have started sleeting a bit earlier. Not a bad event overall. Yeah the radar was a little convective towards the end and I think I just lucked out in the last couple hours. I also had 3-4 before the main stuff even arrived. 350 ft elevation here, just west of hopewell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Snow is all gone here. Same here. that's what you get for living on the South shore on these types of setups.not a big surprise with heavy rain and temps in the 40's for a while last night..oh well it was nice to see while it was falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Just curious, does anyone know how the NW corner of NJ did? Latest total from Mt. holly that I saw was from 630PM last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Just curious, does anyone know how the NW corner of NJ did? Latest total from Mt. holly that I saw was from 630PM last night. 000 NOUS41 KPHI 150956 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055- 060>062-067>071-152156- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 456 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2013 NEW JERSEY ...BURLINGTON COUNTY... FLORENCE 1.8 150 AM 12/15 TRAINED SPOTTER MOUNT LAUREL 1.1 539 PM 12/14 NWS EMPLOYEE MOUNT HOLLY WFO 1.0 728 PM 12/14 NWS OFFICE DELRAN TWP 1.0 759 PM 12/14 NWS EMPLOYEE ...GLOUCESTER COUNTY... NATIONAL PARK 0.3 725 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER ...HUNTERDON COUNTY... WHITEHOUSE STATION 5.8 950 PM 12/14 BROADCAST MEDIA RINGOES 4.0 1200 AM 12/15 PUBLIC THREE BRIDGES 3.0 648 PM 12/14 PUBLIC UNION TWP 1.0 146 PM 12/14 PUBLIC ...MERCER COUNTY... HOPEWELL TWP 2.9 755 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 ESE EWING TWP 2.4 945 PM 12/14 COCORAHS 1 S TRENTON AIRPORT 2.0 726 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER EWING 1.2 620 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... PERTH AMBOY 4.5 1000 PM 12/14 PUBLIC PISCATAWAY 4.5 1010 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTH PLAINFIELD 2.5 820 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER SAYREVILLE 2.5 821 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER MADISON PARK 2.1 824 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER ...MONMOUTH COUNTY... OAKHURST 5.5 542 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER LINCROFT 5.1 720 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER FREEHOLD 5.0 757 PM 12/14 PUBLIC HAZLET 4.5 917 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER COLTS NECK 3.8 706 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER MANALAPAN 3.5 755 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER WAYSIDE 3.5 410 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER MILLSTONE TWP 2.6 330 AM 12/15 TRAINED SPOTTER MORGANVILLE 1.7 518 PM 12/14 PUBLIC ...MORRIS COUNTY... MILTON 6.5 1030 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER BUTLER 6.0 1135 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER HANOVER TWP 5.5 1030 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER RANDOLPH TWP 4.0 1030 PM 12/14 PUBLIC ROCKAWAY 2.8 919 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER ...SOMERSET COUNTY... HILLSBOROUGH 5.2 330 AM 12/15 PUBLIC BOUND BROOK 4.5 830 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 ENE FRANKLIN TWP 4.0 912 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER SOMERSET 4.0 900 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER SOMERVILLE 3.8 1004 PM 12/14 COCORAHS BRIDGEWATER TWP 3.8 1010 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER NORTH PLAINFIELD 3.5 821 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER BELLE MEAD 3.0 722 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER ...SUSSEX COUNTY... HIGHLAND LAKES 5.6 1025 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER WANTAGE 2.8 505 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER VERNON VALLEY 2.2 609 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER HARDYSTON TWP 2.0 533 PM 12/14 COCORAHS ...WARREN COUNTY... BLAIRSTOWN 8.1 145 AM 12/15 TRAINED SPOTTER ASBURY 7.0 1100 PM 12/14 PUBLIC ALLAMUCHY 6.8 1040 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER HACKETTSTOWN 6.0 1100 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER HOPE 5.5 1000 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER STEWARTSVILLE 4.5 1010 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 7.2" before the flip to sleet which probably added a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 You did great with this storm forecast jm, kudos. Thanks. At least for my area, it was pretty straightforward. I grew up with many storms like this. Snow's all gone here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LHSnow Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Same here. that's what you get for living on the South shore on these types of setups.not a big surprise with heavy rain and temps in the 40's for a while last night..oh well it was nice to see while it was falling Still have about 2 inches. We did hit 40F for a short time but were back below freezing this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 this would be hard to take if it were January or February...But being only December 14th the storm was ok...1995 and 2003 had snow changing to rain on this date...both great winters...this set up a month later could deliver more snow and ice to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Never went above freezing here until the storm was over, And to think the GFS had me hitting 50F.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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