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12/14 to 12/15 Snow Storm Observations


WeatherFox

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Just got back from a night out and it just hit 33F on the car thermometer (which is very accurate) on the way home (was 32F when I started clearing the ice off my car.  Was easily about 1/8" or maybe 3/32" of ice glazing everything - made walking in downtown Metuchen a bit of an adventure and the short drive home was very slippery.  Since I was DJ-ing a friend's 50th birthday party from about 7 pm to midnight and then we all went out for a nightcap until about 1:15 am, I never really got a chance to measure the snow.  Had about 2" when I left the house and given how heavy the snow was for a couple of hours, I think I'll go wiht Allsnow's Edison measurement of 4" (seems reasonable 2" fell in those 2 to 2.5 hours). 

 

They at least had wireless, so I was able to follow this thread a bit, as well asthe NWS and other weather sources during the night.  Looks like the back edge of the precip is about here.  As I've said a few times lately, an rain that falls from here on will be absorbed in the snowpack and not melt much snow, with temps in the mid-30s, so I should wake up to a nice wintry landscape, which we should keep until late in the week, when it warms up. Quite a cool storm to track and watch. 

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Ugh. 46 degrees now. Just about all snow gone, and still raining heavily. Sferic, aren't you glad I didn't take you up on that bet?

Temp has also spiked here in Bay Ridge with a couple soggy inches left and moderate rain falling. It's so hard to preserve snow cover on the south coast, and every SW flow event is flirting with borrowed time. Hoping to move back to Westchester soon.
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It will be interesting to see some of the ice photos out of the areas with the highest 

accumulations of ice. It looks like New Haven picked up .70 of freezing  rain and they 

never went above freezing. The GFS was all over this ice threat for days. This is 

why you always worry when the 850 low and primary cuts to your west with strong CAD at the

surface in place. The models can underestimate the amount of surface cold with a strong

high to the north, but we always get that warming above the surface that is advertised.

The Valentine's Day event just had a stronger Arctic cold in place so the zone of significant

freezing ran was in Long Beach with several small branches coming down and slick

conditions. 

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KHVN.html

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The models can underestimate the amount of surface cold with a strong high to the north, but we always get that warming above the surface that is advertised. The Valentine's Day event just had a stronger Arctic cold in place so the zone of significant freezing ran was in Long Beach with several small branches coming down and slick conditions. 

 

I thought even at KJFK 2/14/2007 was mostly IP.

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8.2" of snow and the temperature never got above what it is now:  23 degrees.  I couldn't believe it when I woke up at 1:45AM (or my child woke me) and it was 17 degrees. 

 

The models CLEARLY whiffed on the cold over a large area...

I remember that happening even in dreadful 1972-3. On December 15, 1972 we got just south of KHPN about 2-3" of snow, which was supposed to turn over to rain. Instead it stayed IP and ZR, and then turned back to snow briefly. It spent next two days in frigid teens and low 20's.  My tuba valves froze playing an outdoor concert on 12/17/1972.

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I thought even at KJFK 2/14/2007 was mostly IP.

That was a much colder storm where everyone stayed below freezing; it was also later in the cold season and ergo the marine layer was less of a factor.

About 2" left on the ground in Bay Ridge. The rain washed away much of the snowfall. I am now in the Bronx getting breakfast with friends...there's a solid 4-5" and side roads are still snow covered, unlike in Brooklyn. I'm heading to Westchester for work later on, will be eager to see how the hills of Dobbs Ferry did as I go on my delivery shift

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off topic but interesting is the NAM for next week.  Lais down 2-3" over NNJ and it does redevelop for NE. (for those awake and here).

 

On Topic:  Am very interested to read a final synopsis of this one given the stubborn and powerful cold.  Did ANY model come close to modeling the cold correctly?  It was off more than 10 degrees or more here at midnight on the major models...

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3.8 inches total in Morganville, NJ NW Monmouth County. Roads were a mess up here especially in the early evening. Was on our way to a Christmas party and couldn't believe a major road like Rt. 9 was untouched by road crews. Of course the side streets were worse. Most of the road crews I did see earlier in the afternoon were only salting and didn't even have their plows on yet. Big mistake. Anyway, by time we left the party, the main roads were basically clear and just wet thank God. My side street hasn't been touched yet and still has tons of slush on it.

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