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12/14 to 12/15 Snow Storm Observations


WeatherFox

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There's is a real possibility this becomes a serious icing event for some. The prob is .25 to .35 still have to come thru the flows the warm air

comes NW to a point. Mid level warmth is coming into an air mass that has temps in the mid teens not upper 20s

Thats gona take time erode. Pp are gona flip to frz for some time then it quits. It's not a cut and dry flip to rain away from the coast

on a positive note there is no snow on the tree limbs or wires because of the very cold temp dry powder conditions so they are not weighed down

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7pm update from OKX...

 

 

-- Changed Discussion --

BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WARM NOSE
(ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS) ALOFT STILL SITS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTH. CLEAR DUAL-POL MELTING
LAYER/REFREEZING SIGNATURE INDICATED BY KDIX...WITH THE LINE OF
REFREEZING EXTENDING FROM NEAR BELMAR THROUGH SW MONMOUTH COUNTY
AND DOWN TOWARDS PHILADELPHIA AS OF 2330
UTC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
OBS OF ICE PELLETS/RAIN AROUND THE SIG. THE TRANSITION ZONE IS
VERY SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE N/NW...INDICATING THAT MOST OF NYC

METRO SHOULD CONTINUE AS SNOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IMPROVED CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT MOVING
IN FROM THE SW ALSO SHOWS HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MDT-
HEAVY SNOW NEXT
FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE HEAVIER BANDING MOVES
OVERHEAD...THE MELTING LAYER SIGNATURE AT KDIX DOES CONTRACT
SOME...SHOWING THAT COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER BANDS IS
SLOWING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MELTING LAYER.

OF NOTE...EARLIER SIGNATURES OF HIGH ZDR/LOW
CC JUST SOUTH OF KOKX
GAVE APPEARANCE OF MELTING...BUT THEY WERE ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER

REFLECTIVITY. AFTER DISCUSSION HERE AT THE OFFICE...IT SEEMS CLEAR
THIS WAS DUE TO JUST VERY LIGHT SNOW CRYSTALS AND NOT MELTING.

MSAS PLACES LOW
PRES OVER ERN NC WITH DEEPEST PRES FALLS OVER THE
OCEAN E OF THE DELMARVA. REPORTS FILTERING IN OF AROUND 6 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SO HAVE INCREASED
TOTALS CLOSER TO THE COAST IN FFLD COUNTY ACROSS WESTCHESTER AND
INTO ROCKLAND. KFOK AND KMTP ALREADY
ABV FREEZING...SO THE ICE
THREAT ACROSS ERN
LI IS SHRINKING. WILL LIKELY NEED TO CANCEL THE
ADVY EARLY AFT THE CHANGE TO RAIN OCCURS.

IN ADDITION TO WINTRY PRECIP...E/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...PEAKING AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35 TO 45 MPH...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST.

THESE INCREASING WINDS AND/OR ICE
ACCUMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES AND POWER OUTAGES.

TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO
RISE QUICKLY ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A SE
LLJ
INCREASE. TEMPS BY LATE TONIGHT SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS SE
COASTAL AREAS...BUT REMAIN IN THE 20S ACROSS FAR NW ZONES.

THE EVENT SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
.

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on a positive note there is no snow on the tree limbs or wires because of the very cold temp dry powder conditions so they are not weighed down

For us we started at 25. In 2 hours we are up 5 to 30. You guys north are gona start 5 to 10 degrees colder than us

Before ur mid levels warm. Not getting above freezing until its over

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It's really coming down now, heaviest of the day with lowest temp of the day at just under 25 near Old Bridge. Still kind of amazing to see the temps creeping over 27F as the wind was east to ene and now down to their lowest on a NNE, N wind. 

 

 

the wind shifted 30 minutes ago to NNE from ENE all day... and the temp dropped.... now down to 22F

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/

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