Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

12/14 to 12/15 Snow Storm Observations


WeatherFox

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

This just came out at 7:06 PM:   :snowwindow:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
706 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENS TONIGHT AS IT  
TRACKS NORTHEAST...OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW  
THEN TRACKS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY AND INTO THE CANADIAN  
MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES  
THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO  
THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WARM NOSE  
(ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS) ALOFT STILL SITS TO THE SOUTH OF THE  
AREA...SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTH. CLEAR DUAL-POL MELTING  
LAYER/REFREEZING SIGNATURE INDICATED BY KDIX...WITH THE LINE OF  
REFREEZING EXTENDING FROM NEAR BELMAR THROUGH SW MONMOUTH COUNTY  
AND DOWN TOWARDS PHILADELPHIA AS OF 2330 UTC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY  
OBS OF ICE PELLETS/RAIN AROUND THE SIG. THE TRANSITION ZONE IS  
VERY SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE N/NW...INDICATING THAT MOST OF NYC  
METRO SHOULD CONTINUE AS SNOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME OF  
WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IMPROVED CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT MOVING  
IN FROM THE SW ALSO SHOWS HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MDT-HEAVY SNOW NEXT  
FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE HEAVIER BANDING MOVES  
OVERHEAD...THE MELTING LAYER SIGNATURE AT KDIX DOES CONTRACT  
SOME...SHOWING THAT COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER BANDS IS  
SLOWING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MELTING LAYER.  
 
OF NOTE...EARLIER SIGNATURES OF HIGH ZDR/LOW CC JUST SOUTH OF KOKX  
GAVE APPEARANCE OF MELTING...BUT THEY WERE ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER  
REFLECTIVITY. AFTER DISCUSSION HERE AT THE OFFICE...IT SEEMS CLEAR  
THIS WAS DUE TO JUST VERY LIGHT SNOW CRYSTALS AND NOT MELTING.  
 
MSAS PLACES LOW PRES OVER ERN NC WITH DEEPEST PRES FALLS OVER THE  
OCEAN E OF THE DELMARVA. REPORTS FILTERING IN OF AROUND 6 INCHES  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SO HAVE INCREASED  
TOTALS CLOSER TO THE COAST IN FFLD COUNTY ACROSS WESTCHESTER AND  
INTO ROCKLAND. KFOK AND KMTP ALREADY ABV FREEZING...SO THE ICE  
THREAT ACROSS ERN LI IS SHRINKING. WILL LIKELY NEED TO CANCEL THE  
ADVY EARLY AFT THE CHANGE TO RAIN OCCURS.  
 
IN ADDITION TO WINTRY PRECIP...E/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE  
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...PEAKING AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS  
35 TO 45 MPH...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST.  
 
THESE INCREASING WINDS AND/OR ICE ACCUMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME  
DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES AND POWER OUTAGES.  
 
TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO  
RISE QUICKLY ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A SE LLJ  
INCREASE. TEMPS BY LATE TONIGHT SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS SE  
COASTAL AREAS...BUT REMAIN IN THE 20S ACROSS FAR NW ZONES.  
 
THE EVENT SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Temps going up now, everyone will warm up rapidly regardless of current temps.

I disagree - anyone north of the Raritan River in NJ will stay below freezing most of the nightbecause of the dramatic temp drops the last couple of hours ad change in wind direction to NNE

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...