12/14 to 12/15 Snow Storm Observations

[PB GFI]

The rain snow line has not moved in the last 2 hour. 24.6 on a NE wind. It will move. But that's the Arctic boundary and will not move until the coastal takes over. Then it's a function of where does deepen. Close in like modeled or 50 m east. Makes a hug difference. I expect that line to SW to nw. The question is. Does it stop at the CT coast line then back around to the tpke or does it make it to 287

[ag3]

2.2" in Astoria now.

[Allsnow]

2.2" in Astoria now.

I will be more concerned when Phl goes to rain then belmar. Obv those on south shore are on borrowed time

[danstorm]

2.2" in Astoria now.

 

1.8" in Forest Hills... Hoping to get into some heavier bands soon, they have been teasing us all day, it seems.  If we crack 5, I'll be happy.

[markyk]

2.5" in cranford with moderate snow and 23

 

intense band paralleling INT 287 from lambertville to mahwah, will be meeting up with a band along INT 195, hopefully setting up for some intense rates here in the next 60 to 90 minutes

[MJO812]

Heavy bands are approaching the NYC area.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Back to flurries in orange

[SACRUS]

Heavy bands are approaching the NYC area.

 

Yep snowing at a good clip.  You can make out the snow/mix line on the radar returns south of i195

 

 

[weathermedic]

Been snowing all day here in southern Brooklyn with temps in the mid 20s and only an inch and a half at best. Very fine flakes. Temp at its lowest point all day (25) now dew 21 and barometer falling rapidly now. Wind ne-ene

[jm1220]

Yep snowing at a good clip.  You can make out the snow/mix line on the radar returns south of i195

 

 

radar 12-14 -3.gif

Yup, great representation of it there on radar. Hopefully some of these heavier echos can make it here before the changeover.

[jdt]

My temp is down 2 degrees in the past hour or so. Not to unusual given the heavier precip rates but the DP is also down a degree. Currently 19 / 16 after sitting at 21 / 17 since this morning. Interesting!

[Absolute Humidity]

Getting some enhancement ahead of the fall line.

[wthrmn654]

using wundermap.... you can really draw/ get an idea of where it might or might not be snowing.... long beach in jersey still below freezing... but from brick south near 40's already

[Coastalfront]

Lowest temp of day now 18/15

[SACRUS]

Sussex NJ : 17

EWR:  27

Edison: 28

Freehold:  29

Jackson: 31

Toms River : 33

ACY: 42

[PB GFI]

Getting some enhancement ahead of the fall line.

Heaviest it's snow d all day. Close to 3 already powdery. All bonus.

[wthrmn654]

afternoon diccussion finally out from upton...

 

SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM UNDERWAY...WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEING THE MAIN PLAYERS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RELENTING WITH
NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING.

THIS CLOSER TO THE COAST TRACK SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AIR TO BEGIN TO
FLOOD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ABOVE
THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY QUICKER TRANSITION TO SLEET
AND MORE SO LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 2 AM
FROM S TO N.

BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...INCREASING SYNOPTOC SUPPORT WILL HAVE MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW BANDING ACROSS SE PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PICK UP
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO
POSSIBLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND VSBY 1/4 MILE OR LESS LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION. SNOWFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 3
TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE CITY AND COAST...HIGHEST N&W STILL LOOK
REASONABLE BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER. CLOSE TO THE COAST...INCREASING
WINDS AND TEMPS STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...GENERALLY BETWEEN THE 8PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME
RANGE WILL EXPECT THE RAPID INFLUX OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND A
TRANSITION TO A WIND AND RAIN EVENT ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS. ACROSS
AREAS TO THE NW OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...THE SURFACE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO
SCOUR OUT. AS A RESULT A TRANSITION TO A FEW HOURS OF SLEET BUT
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NYC METRO LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF ICE. THEREAFTER...A WIND AND RAIN EVENT LIKELY ENSUES LATE
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...THE DENSE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY
NEVER BE SCOURED OUT AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
LIKELY LATE TONIGHT...WITH 1/4 TO 1/3 OF INCH OF ICE. LOCALLY UP TO
1/2 INCH OF ICE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

[donsutherland1]

Some photos from late this afternoon:

 

[snywx]

13.6F w/lgt-mod snow..

 

3" on the ground..

 

Intensity starting to pick up within the last 10 mins.

[weatherpruf]

It's so gorgeous outside in our backyards isn't it? Heard some plows going by already. Heavier stuff on top of us now. We have the coldest readings east of the Parkway in all of New Jersey per wundermap. Heavenly.            

 Unless some serious banding is headed my way, I am not seeing 4 inches from this. It has been snowing all day lightly with a few bursts but I'm not sure I'm beyond 2 inches yet.

[snywx]

Some photos from late this afternoon:

 

 

Great pics as always Don...   What are your thoughts for later on this evening?

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The snow is just blowing around right now. Still 19F/17F. 

[96blizz]

Here in Sussex our Winter Storm Warning is for 5-9" and I fear that the NWS may bust low. 

 

I can't remember a snowfall that was so cold.  Just went out for 30 minutes and it is ripping snow and is so very cold!

[tomcatct]

The rain snow line has not moved in the last 2 hour. 24.6 on a NE wind. It will move. But that's the Arctic boundary and will not move until the coastal takes over. Then it's a function of where does deepen. Close in like modeled or 50 m east. Makes a hug difference. I expect that line to SW to nw. The question is. Does it stop at the CT coast line then back around to the tpke or does it make it to 287

It would be nice if the coastal takes a jog to the east and pulls the r/s line e/ne toward the water..we'll know by the wind direction cause when it goes e or ese we're done....

[Allsnow]

Changeover line is holding steady just south of 1-95. Cool watching it get washed out when trying to push north

[Rtd208]

Light to moderate snow continues, estimated accumulation 2.0-2.5"

[donsutherland1]

Great pics as always Don...   What are your thoughts for later on this evening?3"-6" for

 

3"-6" for NYC with the changeover occurring between 7 pm and 10 pm; For Putnam and Dutchess Counties out to Albany, 6"-12" with some sleet and freezing rain before the storm ends.

[RU848789]

Temp dropped a degree to 26F and snow is starting to pick up again in intensty, with 1.75" currently on ground from this storm (had maybe 1.5" left on the ground) - radar showing some good 20-30 DBZ bands about to hit us.  With the rain/snow line still down around Pt. Pleasant to maybe Belmar and over to maybe Mt. Holly, I'm hopeful, we'll get a decent amount of moderate to heavy snow for at least the next 3-4 hours, maybe getting to 4-5" here, which would be pretty close to what was forecast.  Will be interesting to see how much sleet/ZR we get before surface temps go above 32F and plain rain falls. 

[jm1220]

Changeover line is holding steady just south of 1-95. Cool watching it get washed out when trying to push north

Always scary seeing it only 30 miles away from me, but hopefully we can squeeze out a few more hours of snow here. We're still at maybe a little over an inch.

[WintersGrasp]

Just 21 degrees now in Essex county NJ. Interesting that this will suddenly turn to rain!