CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Its amazingly cold for the track it takes...it keeps Ray pretty much all snow despite a track over Messenger. We've see that before..lol. Yeah that's a cold look even at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My grandfather died this morning and I was wondering if you guys could pray for him if your into that kind of stuff, if not than that's fine. However its one of those deals where a snowstorm is a bonus regardless of the amounts. I won't stop watching the weather unfold because he wouldn't want me too. 850mb travels right over the Cape, so we mix for a time before the 850s crash southeastward as the comma head develops overhead. very sorry about your loss. My condolences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Dam gotta run. If anyone can text me some model specs on the GFS..much appreciated. Tough to see specifics other than QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Its amazingly cold for the track it takes...it keeps Ray pretty much all snow despite a track over Messenger. Remember this when Ray is 34 and raining before seeing a dryslot from he** GFS is going to be slower aloft this run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 very sorry about your loss. My condolences. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Remember this when Ray is 34 and raining before seeing a dryslot from he** GFS is going to be slower aloft this run too. At h5 the southern stream is slowly getting stronger each run around 18 hours and on. A more defined southern stream means a better defined and faster developing coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Sounds like this is going to be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is getting a very convective look on the hi res models. Just these billows of intense VVs. So naturally when that happens all sorts of weird sh*t goes on. Areas that should be rain are snow, Areas that should have snow have a gravity wave induced toaster bath etc. I'm not saying that will happen...but it's getting that intense look for a time after 3z- 6z. Convection can be a friend or it can be a foe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If you have only lived in ENY for a couple years, I can understand the pessimism. We've been fringed a lot lately. I've been in the area over 20 years, and its not a bad area for snow, just been tough lately. The overall average for the ALB area is 62", so not bad, even in the valley. We'll start getting some our way...and this one may not end up too bad anyway. I lived in the area from 2005-2007... and those years were better than recent ones. Since 2010 I can count 6-10 storms that nailed SNE, and none for ENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah here is the RGEM precip that falls as snow...you can almost follow the CF enhancement right up into S ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 At h5 the southern stream is slowly getting stronger each run around 18 hours and on. A more defined southern stream means a better defined and faster developing coastal. Yep but I don't think I'm buying the fight off of the torch aloft that the models are showing. I'll enjoy the mood snows before a flip and I think it's about the same for you. If we pull 1-3" we'll be lucky, JMHO. Models were awful with the handling of the s/w coming out of the deep southwest. Too fast not too slow in ejecting it and now it's tugging the low further and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This looks juiced and sim to 06z maybe a hair stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah here is the RGEM precip that falls as snow...you can almost follow the CF enhancement right up into S ME Nice! Looks good for the east slope of the Spine up here. You hill towns down near ORH are going to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This looks juiced and sim to 06z maybe a hair stronger. Looks quite a bit warmer to me. Warmth is riding in right with the heavier precip. By 42 the 925 0c is already ripping towards boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Man - without Leon directly north of us we would be toast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS argues for TSSN. What a convective blob over ern ma at 09z holy ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My grandfather died this morning and I was wondering if you guys could pray for him if your into that kind of stuff, if not than that's fine. However its one of those deals where a snowstorm is a bonus regardless of the amounts. I won't stop watching the weather unfold because he wouldn't want me too. 850mb travels right over the Cape, so we mix for a time before the 850s crash southeastward as the comma head develops overhead. sorry for your loss James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS argues for TSSN. What a convective blob over ern ma at 09z holy ****. You sure that's still snow? West of I95 I'd say yes...but it might be a tight squeeze east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 weird that dec 15, 2007 is the number 1 analog. That shortwave was a lot stronger than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z GFS, Low bombs in the GOM 988mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS is cold lol. Wow 3-4,inch per hour rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What a beautiful storm this is going to be. This just can't help getting stronger and stronger every run, I love it. Time to raise snow amounts! I could get over 14 inches IMBY! c'mon man, don't jinx it. Up on Radon Hill I am expecting all rain and 40F. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 You sure that's still snow? West of I95 I'd say yes...but it might be a tight squeeze east. for someone I mean. Looks good for a thump even near yiu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 You sure that's still snow? West of I95 I'd say yes...but it might be a tight squeeze east. for someone I mean. Looks good for a thump even near you. But this is looking more like a NE MA special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I lived in the area from 2005-2007... and those years were better than recent ones. Since 2010 I can count 6-10 storms that nailed SNE, and none for ENY. The winter of 05-06 was pretty bad though and even the first half of 06-07 until February and March had very little snowfall. There will be favorable stretches in the future for ENY; everything always balances out to climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 c'mon man, don't jinx it. Up on Radon Hill I am expecting all rain and 40F. lol Sorry! Just pretty excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 for someone I mean. Looks good for a thump even near yiu Thanks...it looks warm to me on the CP (I mean east of Bob and you're old hood). I just see it flooding the CF west even before the warm air overcuts. And I don't like the trend for me....great for CNE and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nice! Looks good for the east slope of the Spine up here. You hill towns down near ORH are going to get smoked. Nice looking forward to at least a foot+ IMY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Someone is going to get ripped with this system. These 12z runs are nuts thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z GFS, Low bombs in the GOM 988mb Now that's what I like to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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