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December 14/15 winter storm threat part II


Typhoon Tip

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NAM looks more reasonable to start, it's not running the low out under the spurious convection this run. 

Eh, it still does it, lot of heat release and it reenergizes the features aloft right off the Delmarva.   The entire thing is delayed vs the 6z though (the low I mean) as it least attempted to develop it as the main s/w approached.

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NAM is below 32 at BOS the whole time at the surface.

 

Never brings the 1000-850 ct's much beyond the canal area.  Colder than the 6z.

 

And I still think it may be pulling the low too far NW as although it didn't race as fast as last run in developing the low...it still kind of fires it off under a popup 500mb feature.  

 

You guys to my NW look great.  Here...1-3 or maybe 3-6 pending the other stuff.

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Pickles wants to be 25F and SN as opposed to 32Fand SN. Anyone N & W of BOS/PVD should have no fear of an all wintry event.

My thoughts are still the same for my general area. I still see a 3-6" type deal. 1-2hours is going to make a big difference in snow amounts with this. Huge bust potential on each side but I favor a colder scenario in this one given the antecedent airmass as well as the high location to the N. Track has not wavered too much over the last day or so. Anywhere between ACK and the BM.

Negative , im not sold on all snow in melrose yet , waitin for 12z

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