December 14/15 winter storm threat part II

[centralmass]

[moneypitmike]

Here are the lowest average temps for sites around SNE for 12/14.

 

ID     ST  NAME                        MEAN   LAST DATE
-----  --  --------------------------  ----   ----------
BAKC3  CT  BAKERSVILLE                    8   12/14/2005
BDR    CT  BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AP        17   12/14/2005
BRLC3  CT  BURLINGTON                    12   12/14/1982
DANC3  CT  DANBURY                       11   12/14/2005
DXR    CT  DANBURY MUNI AP                8   12/14/2005
FVLC3  CT  FALLS VILLAGE                  4   12/14/2005
GTNC3  CT  GROTON                        17   12/14/1989
BDL    CT  HARTFORD                      10   12/14/2005
HFD    CT  HARTFORD BRAINARD FLD         14   12/14/2005
MLTC3  CT  MIDDLETOWN 4 W                 8   12/14/1893
MTCC3  CT  MT CARMEL                     15   12/14/1976
HVN    CT  NEW HAVEN WB AP               18   12/14/1958
NFKC3  CT  NORFOLK 2 SW                   4   12/14/2005
NRWC3  CT  NORWICH PUB UTIL PLT          15   12/14/1989
STFC3  CT  STAMFORD 5 N                  15   12/14/1976
STRC3  CT  STORRS                         5   12/14/1893
WTPC3  CT  WEST THOMPSON LAKE             8   12/14/1982
IJD    CT  WILLIMANTIC WINDHAM AP        10   12/14/2005

AHRM3  MA  AMHERST                        2   12/14/1893
BARM3  MA  BARRE FALLS DAM                5   12/14/1982
BED    MA  BEDFORD HANSCOM FLD            9   12/14/2005
BEVM3  MA  BEVERLY                       15   12/14/2005
BVY    MA  BEVERLY MUNI AP               15   12/14/2005
BIRM3  MA  BIRCH HILL DAM                 6   12/14/1982
MQE    MA  BLUE HILL                      3   12/14/1893
BOS    MA  BOSTON                         8   12/14/1893
BROM3  MA  BROCKTON                       9   12/14/1898
OXFM3  MA  BUFFUMVILLE LAKE               6   12/14/1982
CHH    MA  CHATHAM                       20   12/14/1989
CQX    MA  CHATHAM MUNI AP               27   12/14/2005
EBRM3  MA  EAST BRIMFIELD LAKE            9   12/14/1982
EWAM3  MA  EAST WAREHAM                   9   12/14/1958
EDGM3  MA  EDGARTOWN                     11   12/14/1960
FIT    MA  FITCHBURG MUNI AP             13   12/14/2005
GVLM3  MA  GROVELAND                     15   12/14/1995
HAVM3  MA  HAVERHILL                     13   12/14/2005
HINM3  MA  HINGHAM                       14   12/14/1962
HYSM3  MA  HYANNIS                       10   12/14/1982
       MA  JAMAICA PLAIN                 11   12/14/1982
LWMM3  MA  LAWRENCE                       3   12/14/1893
LWM    MA  LAWRENCE MUNI AP              15   12/14/2005
LLLM3  MA  LOWELL                       - 1   12/14/1893
MARM3  MA  MARBLEHEAD                    15   12/14/1989
MNDM3  MA  MAYNARD 2                     10   12/14/1982
MDLM3  MA  MIDDLEBORO                     8   12/14/1893
MIDM3  MA  MIDDLETON                     14   12/14/1989
ACK    MA  NANTUCKET FAA AP              22   12/14/1976
EWB    MA  NEW BEDFORD MUNI AP           17   12/14/2005
AQW    MA  NORTH ADAMS                    2   12/14/2005
NRNM3  MA  NORTON WEST                   16   12/14/2005
OWD    MA  NORWOOD MEM AP                13   12/14/2005
ORE    MA  ORANGE MUNI AP                 4   12/14/2005
PSF    MA  PITTSFIELD WB AP               3   12/14/2005
PYM    MA  PLYMOUTH MUNI AP              16   12/14/2005
PLYM3  MA  PLYMOUTH-KINGSTON              8   12/14/1982
REAM3  MA  READING                       13   12/14/1960
EFRM3  MA  ROCHESTER                      9   12/14/1982
TAN    MA  TAUNTON MUNI AP               16   12/14/2005
TLLM3  MA  TULLY LAKE                     5   12/14/2005
MVY    MA  VINEYARD HAVEN AP             21   12/14/2005
WALM3  MA  WALPOLE 2                     14   12/14/1976
BAF    MA  WESTFIELD 2 NE AP              6   12/14/2005
ORH    MA  WORCESTER                      2   12/14/1898
WORM3  MA  WORTHINGTON                    8   12/14/2005

KGNR1  RI  KINGSTON                       9   12/14/1893
UUU    RI  NEWPORT STATE AP              19   12/14/2005
FTFR1  RI  NORTH FOSTER 1 E              12   12/14/2005
PVD    RI  PROVIDENCE                    16   12/14/1904
TIVR1  RI  TIVERTON                      20   12/14/2005

 

Thanks--I hope I can stave off increased until after midnight and keep it at 4*.  Didn't realize how few there'd be in that vicinity.  Climbing now though..7.1/4

[moneypitmike]

Not sure if this is new or has been posted, but here's Albany's thoughts:

 

 

[centralmass]

@BarryWBZ

Latest guidance reveals that warming may be more rapid so a cutback in all predicted snowfall totals may be warranted.

[weatherwiz]

MCD just to our west

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF PA...PORTIONS OF SERN NY AND NWRN NJ

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 142002Z - 150200Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 21Z
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES PER HOUR. A
TRANSITION OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES MAY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME.

DISCUSSION...A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES
TO MOVE NEWD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
WAVE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE FAVORED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...FURTHER SUPPORTING AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL.

BY EARLY EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA...FAVORING A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION
TYPES.

..BUNTING.. 12/14/2013


ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

[Damage In Tolland]

We like

 

http://ow.ly/i/41Hmx 

[CT Rain]

We like

 

http://ow.ly/i/41Hmx 

 

Totally disagree

[Tropopause_Fold]

Totally disagree

that's a horrendous map. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Totally disagree

Not surprised

[RI Rob]

We like

 

http://ow.ly/i/41Hmx 

9 in providence? lol?

[ROOSTA]

We like

 

http://ow.ly/i/41Hmx 

How many people have to disagree before you agree that it's not a good map?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We like

 

http://ow.ly/i/41Hmx 

 

I mean I hope so.

 

But I am extremely skeptical that I am receiving 6-9 inches of snow. I also am more skeptical that the canal could receive half a foot.

[Logan11]

Anyone have a link to a dual pol radar image out of OKX or DIX. I'd be interested in were the actual changeover line is.  Not that it's ever reaching me with 6 degrees and snow...but it's still interesting.

[OceanStWx]

Anyone have a link to a dual pol radar image out of OKX or DIX. I'd be interested in were the actual changeover line is.  Not that it's ever reaching me with 6 degrees and snow...but it's still interesting.

[Damage In Tolland]

How many people have to disagree before you agree that it's not a good map?

Thousands

[ROOSTA]

Anyone have a link to a dual pol radar image out of OKX or DIX. I'd be interested in were the actual changeover line is.  Not that it's ever reaching me with 6 degrees and snow...but it's still interesting.

COD Dupage has it.

[Logan11]

Thx for the image and web site.

[ROOSTA]

Thousands

To easy, the city of Providence. And that's 10's of thousands. I'm just bustin em Kev. 

[Logan11]

This shows it more clearly:

 

[OceanStWx]

This shows it more clearly:

 

That's a pretty good refreezing signature just north of the radar in those really low CC values.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Our cable/phone/internet went down for a while

Am I still relatively safe?

[RI Rob]

I'm surprised my temps here are still around 18.5F. Surrounding area's are a bit warmer. 

[Ginx snewx]

Some IMHOs. Siting some G wave clouds on radar off LI, depiction radar is a fantastic tool, snow rain has actually dropped south for the time being, surface LP is rapidly forming in ENC, winds and temps are responding as well. Something to watch for icing concerns. HRRR is very bullish. At any rate figuring this all out is fun. Lt snow 3/4 new at home, 18, dropped a degree

1. 5 new its going to be an interesting night

[Damage In Tolland]

1. 5 new its going to be an interesting night

Agree

[CT Rain]

Here comes the pingers... almost to Staten Island. 

[Bostonseminole]

HRRR still hitting us pretty hard.

[dendrite]

FWIW NAM is coming in cooler.

[snowman21]

Here comes the pingers... almost to Staten Island.

That's still a long way from Connecticut. Even southern New London County may reach warning criteria by the time the change to sleet occurs. After that last band, there's probably a good 4 or 5 inches on the ground now down to the beaches.

[ORH_wxman]

FWIW NAM is coming in cooler.

 

 

00z RAP was a lot colder than the 18z NAM, so I figured the 00z NAM would come down a bit.

[CT Rain]

That's still a long way from Connecticut. Even southern New London County may reach warning criteria by the time the change to sleet occurs. After that last band, there's probably a good 4 or 5 inches on the ground now down to the beaches.

 

Probably by 10 in Greenwich?