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December 14/15 winter storm threat part II


Typhoon Tip

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By 9z it's almost into VT...tickles over around Boston...32f at ground is pretty far inland. Again it's the NAM, but this is yet again warmer than the earlier run.

The question (s) for that 9z panel for e mass n of pike

Will rates dynamically cool the column at 4 am so bos and ne mass is still snow. Too bad i won't know. Fwiw i think it may be in and out of nne very quick and also sne quicker than shown.

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By 9z it's almost into VT...tickles over around Boston...32f at ground is pretty far inland.  Again it's the NAM, but this is yet again warmer than the earlier run.

That's what I have at 9z....maybe a bit further south on the west end but that's the resolution of graphics.

I'm looking forward to a nice thump. Low level temps away from the coast are too warm in the models. Euro remained much colder.

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Here's the blow up..at the rate it's moving it's pushing towards the city not long after.

 

6z

If you go on the hi-res NAM the cold air at 850 "battles" back in eastern sections - for lack of a better word - for the next couple hours and doesn't progress a ton from that position. However, by 9z it's on the doorsteps of BOS and by 10z it's pushed north.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html

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I'm eager to see the new NWS offfices' maps.

 

Is everyone sticking to their guns from their earlier calls/maps?  I think I had given a first/last call of 7-10" at the Pit a couple days ago.  I'm going to stick with that. 

 

Generally speaking, I think:

 

Northern Mass may still eek out 6-12, but few people outside of a few folks near VT (hi) and NH (west of where 190 points to) will realize the higher end. 

 

  The remainder of Mass will be 5-8:

 

CT 6-7 near the Mass line (up to 8+ in northern Litchfield), trending down to a couple in coastal NL.

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If you go on the hi-res NAM the cold air at 850 "battles" back in eastern sections - for lack of a better word - for the next couple hours and doesn't progress a ton from that position. However, by 9z it's on the doorsteps of BOS and by 10z it's pushed north.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html

Yeah, but the NCEP/ewall maps that show it bisecting RI aren't the 4km hires.

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Yeah, but the NCEP/ewall maps that show it bisecting RI aren't the 4km hires.

Agree, just putting it in there for comparison.  I'm eager to see which model and resolution ends up verifying better with timing and temps and everything else as we see the event progresses. One of those deals where dual-pol will come in handy.

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Did Wiz write my forecast tonight?

 

 Late Afternoon: Snow showers. High near 12. Wind chill values as low as -2. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Temperature rising to around 18 by 3am. Wind chill values as low as -2. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow showers, freezing rain, and sleet before 11am, then a chance of snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. High near 29. Northeast wind 7 to 17 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible

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Some IMHOs. Siting some G wave clouds on radar off LI, depiction radar is a fantastic tool, snow rain has actually dropped south for the time being, surface LP is rapidly forming in ENC, winds and temps are responding as well. Something to watch for icing concerns. HRRR is very bullish. At any rate figuring this all out is fun. Lt snow 3/4 new at home, 18, dropped a degree

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Southern New England looks reasonably on-track. Will make a few changes to increase amounts some spots for 5PM show.
 

Large-scale increase in snow amounts will be necessary in Northern new England. More to follow shortly.

"Upping" or "updating" :)

 

Where he upping them--PF?

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Nice, hand editing the zones. I don't think we have the ability to put thunder in without a thunderstorm in the grids. Takes a lot of work to go through each zone and add it where you think it's possible.

 

 

That was the p/c.  Here's the zfp.

 

Tonight: Snow this evening...then snow...sleet with a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Cold with lows around 11. Temperature rising to around 19 after midnight. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent

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That was the p/c. Here's the zfp.

Tonight: Snow this evening...then snow...sleet with a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Cold with lows around 11. Temperature rising to around 19 after midnight. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent

I have thunder mentioned in mine too
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That was the p/c.  Here's the zfp.

 

Tonight: Snow this evening...then snow...sleet with a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Cold with lows around 11. Temperature rising to around 19 after midnight. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent

 

Ah, so they added thunderstorms to the grids to get the wording to fall out of the formatters.

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