CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Kevin 00z certainly was NW. Snowfall however went up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Good let's hope. What do you make of my area to Phil as a rough guess? I can't give you a good answer since I'm mobile but a good 2-4 at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 6+? Double that its his coping mechanism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How does this make any sense? I am not seeing only 8 inches of snow. Last map was much better. I don't understand them sometimes... Could be that we are in the situation where any indication of small variations of track of the storm at any time could tweak the amount of snow we see by 2"-4 ". I liked the earlier map as well but maybe all yesterdays NW trends were a little too much and (as I've seen a few mention) the possibility of a slight shift back SE even just a little might make the difference. Just a guess from someone who just tries to follow the discussions as best as possible. let the disappointment begin. I really would not be sweating the details of there 1st map, Its an 8-10" storm with room for more depending the outcome of today and tonight's runs, I think we would all have been happy a few days ago with this when it was showing a strung out POS that only gave us a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Kevin 00z certainly was NW. Snowfall however went up. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Fsb 3 in CT names this storm " winter storm ashford" . Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This gives PYM almost 7" http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131213&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PYM&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=42.044961630302104&mLON=-72.3618666015625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I really would not be sweating the details of there 1st map, Its an 8-10" storm with room for more depending the outcome of today and tonight's runs, I think we would all have been happy a few days ago with this when it was showing a strung out POS that only gave us a few inches That is what this is all about. This is the second map out of no where. They came up with a very reasonable map before you can find posted a few pages back, then, with no new model data lowering QPF or snowfall, they lowered everything substantially. I know that what happens, happens, and this will most likely increase this afternoon, I am just wondering why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This gives PYM almost 7" http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131213&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PYM&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=42.044961630302104&mLON=-72.3618666015625&mTYP=roadmap Thing is if the east wind starts cranking it'll eat the cold air quickly. Today's runs are show time let's see what kicks off in 30 minutes. Nam hasn't jackpotted ski mrg yet and maybe it's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 09z Srefs looked west of 03z and more juiced up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah I don't see where this idea of NW trend came from. 00z was the same as 12z really..and 6z went SE check the soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 check the soundings those are awful remember? who even uses those... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 With both the 06z NAM/GFS closing off 850mb south of SNE and even making a last ditch effort to close off H7 as it exits stage right...we'll def have to entertain the possibility that 12"+ amounts could occur. This is obviously a change thinking from the last few days when this was a pure SWFE. I'm still not convinced we nuke this out in time ala 12/9/05 (albeit weaker..lets not go too nuts) to get the mid-level flow easterly...but if we do, then we'll see higher amounts. The flow remains very progressive without blocking and we are counting on a lot real world convective feeback to deepen the mid-level centers to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 those are awful remember? who even uses those... What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Is there any concern with this? The High has remained pretty consistent... Pickles wants to be 25F and SN as opposed to 32Fand SN. Anyone N & W of BOS/PVD should have no fear of an all wintry event. My thoughts are still the same for my general area. I still see a 3-6" type deal. 1-2hours is going to make a big difference in snow amounts with this. Huge bust potential on each side but I favor a colder scenario in this one given the antecedent airmass as well as the high location to the N. Track has not wavered too much over the last day or so. Anywhere between ACK and the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What are you talking about?Disco last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 With both the 06z NAM/GFS closing off 850mb south of SNE and even making a last ditch effort to close off H7 as it exits stage right...we'll def have to entertain the possibility that 12"+ amounts could occur. This is obviously a change thinking from the last few days when this was a pure SWFE. I'm still not convinced we nuke this out in time ala 12/9/05 (albeit weaker..lets not go too nuts) to get the mid-level flow easterly...but if we do, then we'll see higher amounts. The flow remains very progressive without blocking and we are counting on a lot real world convective feeback to deepen the mid-level centers to our south. Great last paragraph. Let's see whether that feedback was real or memorex on the upcoming runs today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What are you talking about? It was a joke because Kevin made a comment that soundings are not important lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 With both the 06z NAM/GFS closing off 850mb south of SNE and even making a last ditch effort to close off H7 as it exits stage right...we'll def have to entertain the possibility that 12"+ amounts could occur. This is obviously a change thinking from the last few days when this was a pure SWFE. I'm still not convinced we nuke this out in time ala 12/9/05 (albeit weaker..lets not go too nuts) to get the mid-level flow easterly...but if we do, then we'll see higher amounts. The flow remains very progressive without blocking and we are counting on a lot real world convective feeback to deepen the mid-level centers to our south. I meantioned 12/9/05 lite last night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Great last paragraph. Let's see whether that feedback was real or memorex on the upcoming runs today I get the feeling that not too deeply down, you'd like this event wilt a bit so that you don't end up too envious of those to your nw lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My best guess of 12"+ is extreme NE MA and esp SE NH and cstl ME near the CF. That CF means business. Extreme NE MA is still on the low prob for 12" at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My best guess of 12"+ is extreme NE MA and esp SE NH and cstl ME near the CF. That CF means business. Extreme NE MA is still on the low prob for 12" at the moment. I know...I wish that would tighten a bit sooner, and a hair further s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My best guess of 12"+ is extreme NE MA and esp SE NH and cstl ME near the CF. That CF means business. Extreme NE MA is still on the low prob for 12" at the moment. by extreme NE Mass. you mean? like Rockport or Newburyport? how extreme lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I know...I wish that would tighten a bit sooner, and a hair further s. Weather please LOL\ Yea Ray good spot for this one, huge thermal contrast and you know that Twister game is coming out of the closet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattbau43 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My best guess of 12"+ is extreme NE MA and esp SE NH and cstl ME near the CF. That CF means business. Extreme NE MA is still on the low prob for 12" at the moment. Any predictions for Extreme Eastern Coastal Maine? (Basically the coast next to Canada) Im new to weather forecasting and predicting the precip is extremely challenging. I appreciate the input from anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 by extreme NE Mass. you mean? like Rockport or Newburyport? how extreme lol? Like Haverhill area...maybe down to Andover. SREFs tick west reduced 8" probs a bit, but still an omega bomb. We'll see what the NAM says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Any predictions for Extreme Eastern Coastal Maine? (Basically the coast next to Canada) Im new to weather forecasting and predicting the precip is extremely challenging. I appreciate the input from anyone. 8-14"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hey Pickles, NAM at 30 hours has 1036 north of. NH/VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Like Haverhill area...maybe down to Andover. SREFs tick west reduced 8" probs a bit, but still an omega bomb. We'll see what the NAM says. Perhaps you should draw a map to reduce the IMBY requests Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Perhaps you should draw a map to reduce the IMBY requests dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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