phil882 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 While I've been focusing on talking about the first southern stream s/w (located over IN and OH), its just setting the show for the amplification that will continue with the second s/w (which you can see back in TX/AR). This is already producing some impressive convection over FL, GA, and AL with a decent stratiform shield. Its this second s/w that will probably contribute the most to robust secondary cyclogenesis, while the first s/w is primarily contributing to the current mslp minima in the Ohio Valley. Another thing to look out for is how much the convection develops and moves offshore, as some of this could cutoff the moisture fluxes into the northeast tonight if its significantly stronger than forecasted. Just highlighting some things to lookout for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 half inch at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wiz, I admire your work in acquiring knowledge. Great job and thanks for your thoughts! Thank you, Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quizplz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The models have trended so far north that even York County Maine is at risk for a sub freezing mix.. Sweet spots now appears to be northwest of KORE to KCON to KLEW to KBGR. If the trend continues even those spots could see mix. The trend is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Thank you, Jerry I 2nd that. You've come a long way and really grown over the course of the past couple of years....not to go off topic, but it's very evident in your writing, and by the way that you carry yourself, ie your overall demeanor. Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The models have trended so far north that even York County Maine is at risk for a sub freezing mix.. Sweet spots now appears to be northwest of KORE to KCON to KLEW to KBGR. If the trend continues even those spots could see mix. The trend is your friend. Yea, that is what sucks down here.....I was in the sweet spot last night, now it's seeping n like a warm front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I 2nd that. You've come a long way and really grown over the course of the past couple of years....not to go off topic, but it's very evident in your writing, and by the way that you carry yourself, ie your overall demeanor. Keep up the good work. Thanks! I owe alot to this place...it's been my Bible Yea, that is what sucks down here.....I was in the sweet spot last night, now it's seeping n like a warm front... I wouldn't be all too worried if I were you...I know it sucks to flip over but I would think by the time that happens, the majority of the QPF has fallen. In a way, having a bit further NW track isn't necessarily a bad thing either. It sucks b/c it will have a negative impact on snowgrowth/ratios but with a stronger push of WAA and a tighter thermal profile, it leads to increased QPF output and is also going to make for some really awesome banding and pretty hefty snowfall rates. I bet someone will close in on 3'' per hour snowfall rates during the height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Maine isn't Tolland though the roads are usually pretty well done and the people there can drive. Be a fun morning of skiing and would avoid the frustration of the fast flip here When I lived up there, I could never keep track of how many cars would drive off 295 and Rt 2. OT but I'm not kidding, a big fat squirrel crawled out from under my deck, came up on the deck looked at me and behind the sliding glass door and I swear the bastard winked. LOL Wiz, I admire your work in acquiring knowledge. Great job and thanks for your thoughts! Agree on that, Paul. I'm still waiting for you to post something like "wow, look at the instability right over mpm's hourse.....he's in for some insane thunder snow. He should take cover". 7.8/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Looks like band east of me in the ocean will clip me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm thinking 6 or 7 inches in my area (Canton/Stoughton), but how much of that will be OTG once the rain comes through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Good lord srefs torch up through dendrite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Good lord srefs torch up through dendrite!The lower levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The lower levels? Rain for you on the srefs. Not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The lower levels? What's up with the freezing rain fetish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I would be shocked at rain north of the pike. Freezing rain or ip yes but not plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Still most of what falls is frozen but the warmth is so aggressive it's above freezing to concord,nh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Good lord srefs torch up through dendrite!Take the over on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I would be shocked at rain north of the pike. Freezing rain or ip yes but not plain rain. I'd be surprised but have seen it before even with colder temps to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Take the over on temps. Not up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'd be surprised but have seen it before even with colder temps to start. Nobody northwest of the sfc track is going to get rain unless you are probably right on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Still most of what falls is frozen but the warmth is so aggressive it's above freezing to concord,nh. Ghost of the winter of 1993-94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nobody northwest of the sfc track is going to get rain unless you are probably right on the coast. Rap has the low almost into NYC later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 i'm liking what's coming here for the next many hours. until the changeover this is going to be nice out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Rap has the low almost into NYC later tonight. Rap will always be too far NW. Rain is not getting into NH west of like I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not up there. Yeah this is no different from other guidance. 2m stay less than 0C here (it will anyways even if guidance warmed me) and the 0C 850 line briefly makes a visit when the dryslot comes through. We will thump snow until the end and then maybe add a trace or hundredth of ZL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Ghost of the winter of 1993-94 No problem with that for me...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Rap will always be too far NW. Rain is not getting into NH west of like I-95. How far inland will rain penetrate here? Euro was pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 How far inland will rain penetrate here? Euro was pretty cold. I'm having trouble seeing it rain much past 128. Ray will be below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Snowing decently at oak grove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nobody northwest of the sfc track is going to get rain unless you are probably right on the coast. I don't know where all this rain talk came from? It might have been Garth or Pickles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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