OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Think the ride will be reasonable at 8 tonight? I have visions of having to eat my own hand after being stuck in a snow bank for a day. I would think so, but it will be getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I think sunapee may score more snow. Think I can make it leacing here at 6 tonight? yea I think so, ask Chris Ocean State, but you know who is better at working the snow in and leaving the stashes ungroomed, in a heartbeat dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 We're probably getting 8-10'' and then pinging for a bit. Worth it for the +SN though...I love SWFE. Dang - I would love me some heavy ice after snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I would think so, but it will be getting close.Maine isn't Tolland though the roads are usually pretty well done and the people there can drive. Be a fun morning of skiing and would avoid the frustration of the fast flip here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Euro keeps me much colder at the surface vs gfs. Barely if at all above freezing and snows more I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 We are still thinking 5-8 at Logan with OES being a wild card that might play with amounts. Phuck it, I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This could verify colder than what the models are showing...just keep that in the back of your mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It is just hard to do when you're only looking at like 3 hours of +FZRA. The key is to have lower DPs continuously advecting in from the n or ne, which counteracts the latent heat release from the intense precipitation.....that is what enabled the 12/08 event to accrete so efficiently in the face of such prolific rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Euro rips after 03z in ern areas. The IP line takes on a classic SWFE with it curved down from just SW of BDL to the CT coastline and then down by the islands at 06z. By 09z it's near the Pike or close to it. At this point it may be raining at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The key is to have lower DPs continuously advecting in from the n or ne, which counteracts the latent heat release of the intense precipitation.....that is what enabled the 12/08 event to accrete so efficiently in the face of such prolific rates. Absolutely - but I also think about 1/2 the total precip was wasted and never was able to accrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Euro rips after 03z in ern areas. The IP line takes on a classic SWFE with it curved down from just SW of BDL to the CT coastline and then down by the islands at 06z. By 09z it's near the Pike or close to it. At this point it may be raining at BOS. Any idea what it does for changeover HFD? I can't really tell on the 6 hour maps but it looks like pretty close to 6z we flip to pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Euro rips after 03z in ern areas. The IP line takes on a classic SWFE with it curved down from just SW of BDL to the CT coastline and then down by the islands at 06z. By 09z it's near the Pike or close to it. At this point it may be raining at BOS. It is at this stage, that I would expect that IP line to begin to encounter increasing resistance, as climo would dictate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Absolutely - but I also think about 1/2 the total precip was wasted and never was able to accrete. Sure, it's not feasible to accrete at a 100" efficiency ratio in any event, much less one of this magnitude. The point is that is was efficient enough to render it a historically crippling icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Euro rips after 03z in ern areas. The IP line takes on a classic SWFE with it curved down from just SW of BDL to the CT coastline and then down by the islands at 06z. By 09z it's near the Pike or close to it. At this point it may be raining at BOS. Shovel at 6Z, wet sidewalks at 15Z? Though euro keeps it pretty chilly here...low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Any idea what it does for changeover HFD? I can't really tell on the 6 hour maps but it looks like pretty close to 6z we flip to pingers. HRRR shows similar, at least something other than snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Shovel at 6Z, wet sidewalks at 15Z? Though euro keeps it pretty chilly here...low levels. how great is this Jer, classic followed up with a Miller B that wants to surprise eNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Sucks so much that this had to shift relentlessly northward in the final 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Any idea what it does for changeover HFD? I can't really tell on the 6 hour maps but it looks like pretty close to 6z we flip to pingers. I will post the maps...keep in mind these are the critical thickness estimates..but it helps. Just let me get my legs under myself..lol. Busy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Going back to thundersnow potential, the GFS really increases 700-500mb lapse rates after 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Sucks so much that this had to shift relentlessly northward in the final 24 hours.eh really? i think your in a prime spot for naked twister with the CF tn? sure it may taint right at the end but we are going to rip 3z to 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 OT but I'm not kidding, a big fat squirrel crawled out from under my deck, came up on the deck looked at me and behind the sliding glass door and I swear the bastard winked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Going back to thundersnow potential, the GFS really increases 700-500mb lapse rates after 6zWhere is thunder snow possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 eh really? i think your in a prime spot for naked twister with the CF tn? sure it may taint right at the end but we are going to rip 3z to 9z I mean for a relatively large percentage of sne....n of the pike and outside of rt 128 still does well, but I think it may cost us an inch or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 OT but I'm not kidding, a big fat squirrel crawled out from under my deck, came up on the deck looked at me and behind the sliding glass door and I swear the bastard winked.Did it look like Leon? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Where is thunder snow possible? I would really think anywhere across the region it's possible, however, I would think the best shot at it will be north of the MA Pike into VT/NH and portions of ME. This will be where the strongest lift/frontogenesis will be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I would really think anywhere across the region it's possible, however, I would think the best shot at it will be north of the MA Pike into VT/NH and portions of ME. This will be where the strongest lift/frontogenesis will be as well.. I might be naked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm seeing a lot of 4-6" shading for my area here in RI, but I'm not believing it. So I"m going with a conservative 2-4" and hoping I get pleasantly surprised. Also, the NWS point and click forecast has me at a high of 45 on Sunday, which I don't believe either. I'm thinking I'm gonna see a lot of sleet at my location as the cold battles the warm, and I would be VERY surprised if we get higher than 35 or 36 with all this cold air around. I don't think the rain wins out as much as the sleet does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Looks like conditions really become favorable after 6z and closer to 12z across northern sections...as the dry slot becomes established that really helps to lead to an unstable profile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wiz, I admire your work in acquiring knowledge. Great job and thanks for your thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.