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December 14/15 winter storm threat part II


Typhoon Tip

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pressure falls in SC and winds reacting, 3 mb last hour, this is Messenger special time

 

This one bores me to be honest.  There's no stopping the WAA aloft with this one I don't think.

 

RAP pushes that band into Boston later and dries us out over the Cape towards evening somewhat.  Meh....I see this as one of those deals where we wait and wait for the heavier stuff to move into the Cape/SE MA and by the time it does any snow that falls is very brief.

 

Not excited Ginxy, at least out by you you're getting into the lift. 

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This one bores me to be honest.  There's no stopping the WAA aloft with this one I don't think.

 

RAP pushes that band into Boston later and dries us out over the Cape towards evening somewhat.  Meh....I see this as one of those deals where we wait and wait for the heavier stuff to move into the Cape/SE MA and by the time it does any snow that falls is very brief.

 

Not excited Ginxy, at least out by you you're getting into the lift. 

Well its exciting right now to have some nice snows coming down, temps in the teens, happy happy happy. 

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RAP has it, just a tad too far north. Looks like the 850 mb front just starting to sharpen as WAA commences.

 

8fnt.gif?1387039987744

 

Yep that's what I am seeing too... nice stretching deformation pattern over where the fgen is occurring near Lake Ontario. Such a pattern is favorable for laterally translating snow bands that generally move sw-ne but can drop a lot of snowfall where the mesoscale forcing is maximized. Thats why the radar looks "streaky" where in general there is a broad area of reflectivity in the 10-20 dbz range. However, the mesoscale snowbands are the embedded elements that are 25-30 dbz and can result in a quick burst of moderate or even heavy snow (like what happened in BGM earlier this morning).  

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forget the snow for a sec... this cold is dam impressive for this time of the year, not even out of the teens on the coastal plain in december at noon.  very impressive

Scooter, is there anything to this, or do we warm that much layer?  I guess my novice question is, is there a bigger ice component to the storm than is being forecasted, or do we warm to much later given the track?

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Scooter, is there anything to this, or do we warm that much layer?  I guess my novice question is, is there a bigger ice component to the storm than is being forecasted, or do we warm to much later given the track?

 

We are going to warm a ton on the CP. You may stay below 32..but the Atlantic will not be denied.  I've seen it start out in the single digits and then friggin Pelicans flying by 6 hrs later on srly winds.

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We are going to warm a ton on the CP. You may stay below 32..but the Atlantic will not be denied.  I've seen it start out in the single digits and then friggin Pelicans flying by 6 hrs later on srly winds.

:lol: :lol:

 

yep. no blocking FTL. what's funny about this set-up (and i use that term funny loosely) is had there been a hint of anything to slow down the departure of that high, this would be a pretty epic set-up

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OE kicking in as winds begin to repond to cyclogen down the coast. 

 

Utterly impressed by the magnitude of cold here ... probably since 2003-2004 for a noon hour to have so many 9-13F readings over DPs as low at -12F!  

 

Having difficulty believing the NAM 00z and 12z thermal fields.  The 06z NAM seems a better fit into the synoptic and/or ability to recover off of this type of air mass, particularly when it is anchored by an actual +PP over eastern Ontario.   Not sure I like even the GFS' position(s) therein, though NCEP's model preference bends that way.   Thinking with such an unusual initial condition of extreme cold against a southern stream impulse, that no model-type would have a finite enough mesh; odd things may likely pan out.  

 

Still think it thunders somewhere amid the HFD-BOS axis.  With this type of air mass in place and that amt of warm transport between 850 and 700mb, it is going to run into nearly vertical elevated frontal slope, right as the mid troposphere wind max is passing over top.   I haven't checked recent BUFKT but both the NAM and GFS had TTs rising to between 50 and 53, yesterday.  

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0.7" with a liquid equivalent of 0.025" - so yeah... super fluffy stuff. All dendrites too. 

 

Caught these on my jacket and iphone camera. 

 

Nice jacket. :)

 

Curious to see how much pinging goes on up this way and when it will start--I do expect that to happen.  We've had some baking powder for the last hour or so.

 

Getting warmer, though.

 

7.0/-1

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i can give you a piece of wood painted white

:lol: 

 

i have to say the guide that was posted by someone a few weeks back was pretty funny. it went through all of these exact measurement techniques and the correct size and placement and clearing of the board etc...and then talked about how to measure on grass. LOL

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