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December 14/15 winter storm threat part II


Typhoon Tip

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First storm of the season so the plow drivers will be out in force and ready to make some OT money before the holidays. They will have little traffic to contend with in the wee hours of the morning. The main roads will be fine tomorrow....pavement. Amazes me that people still stock up on food, gas etc for a run of the mill storm that is going to last around 12 hours. It borders on embarrassing....

Lol I've never understood rushing to the store getting survival supplies for something that happens dozens of times a year.

Grocery stores must love it.

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The rollercoaster ride of as the model spews. At this juncture I suggest (as I must) walk-away from the computer. Come back in 6 hours quickly glance at the most recent run, sit back, relax and enjoy whatever goes down. In the overall picture there is not a blasted thing anyone can do except learn. I've already vested more time in this than I'd admit to. 

 

My FB followers, mostly family I went on record for a general 12" snowfall. I will not back-down, once that enter key is pushed I no longer own it. I know many can relate. The lesson is always start conservative. I have yet to learn. I'm out to go purchase a suit. The Army-Navy game should be a sight.  

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Bow has never been forecast for 14" from this event. You've been near the cut off in ranges (10") so you've been waffling on either side of it with forecast updates.

I told people 8-12" yesterday based on  ~.7qpf  now looking at a bit over 1"

I think the over looks pretty good compared to the under.

 

I use KCON since it's just a couple miles away and I don't have much of an elevation advantage over them.

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I told people 8-12" yesterday based on  ~.7qpf  now looking at a bit over 1"

I think the over looks pretty good compared to the under.

 

I use KCON since it's just a couple miles away and I don't have much of an elevation advantage over them.

 

 

I think 8-12" is a very reasonable and likely outcome from the event.

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Weird radar not as impressive but snowing harder than it has all morning. I'm closing in on 2". Fairfield and new haven county will be at 2-5" before the accumulating snow was supposed to start

Looked like the 0z models had this? 0.05-0.10" can pile up quickly with high ratios. BDR has 0.08" liquid so far.

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If BOX's map verifies in its current state then excellent job of making a forecast on their part. Everyone else seems to be drinking the Kool-aid of the short range guidance. I made my 4-8 call for BDL two days ago and that still seems to be the best forecast for the area going forward.

Huh?

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SW CT might be a mini jackpt within CT. Tools was sort of shown. Sometimes these arctic highs cause a mini frontogenesis area that doesn't push north until the final WAA push moves in. Not surprised really. This band also may help srn mass and RI with snow totals.

 

RAP has it, just a tad too far north. Looks like the 850 mb front just starting to sharpen as WAA commences.

 

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