CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 North winds and NE winds over the water may cause a conv band slowly pushing west over ern MA late today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I think its too aggressive with precip, but the track might not be too far off reality given the more amp up nature of the southern stream s/w. This is allowing the initial low in this miller-b solution to be more dominant for longer before it transfers energy to the coast. Oh I agree... again most of the precipitation falls before the warming takes place... just ending with some light sleet/freezing rain/rain depending on how close a person is to the surface coastal front. All I am saying that the main event will probably be earlier than guidance was pointing yesterday with a greater chance of liquid precipitation towards the end of the event. Great track for Albany for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I think its too aggressive with precip, but the track might not be too far off reality given the more amp up nature of the southern stream s/w. This is allowing the initial low in this miller-b solution to be more dominant for longer before it transfers energy to the coast. Oh I agree... again most of the precipitation falls before the warming takes place... just ending with some light sleet/freezing rain/rain depending on how close a person is to the surface coastal front. All I am saying that the main event will probably be earlier than guidance was pointing yesterday with a greater chance of liquid precipitation towards the end of the event. It will also bring the DS in faster as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I was 9 degrees and ripping rain, talk about dumbfounded in my hallow that day. The shotgun shells lasted all night to wake up with probably the most beautiful glimmering sunrise of my life, and you know what happened after. The return of Leon It all comes back to Leon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Off to basketball then soccer then Xmas party at 3:00. All with snow falling and temps in the low teens. Thank God for iPhones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It all comes back to Leon! Pretty amazing 91-94 11-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Generous? 12 Z Nam Allans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 OES bands need Cialis. They can't make it very far inland for some reason Most intense parcel on radar about to hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I was 9 degrees and ripping rain, talk about dumbfounded in my hallow that day. The shotgun shells lasted all night to wake up with probably the most beautiful glimmering sunrise of my life, and you know what happened after. The return of Leon What day was that? The last really cold ZR I remember was 1/14/99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Generous? 12 Z Nam Allans That includes Tuesday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Snow-lovers do not look at the MM5. Takes the L over SE Ma. Floods the coastal plain to such an extent the only area staying frozen is the Berks. Keeping the faith but waning fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 12z gfs seems kind of meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 What day was that? The last really cold ZR I remember was 1/14/99. That was January 1994. ORH was 9 with freezing rain while BOS was ripping dendrites. Ponder that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Snow-lovers do not look at the MM5. Takes the L over SE Ma. Floods the coastal plain to such an extent the only area staying frozen is the Berks. Keeping the faith but waning fast. Beginning to look rather grave around here. Lowering expectations again. 0-2 here. How things have changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Lol GFS pings to Laconia at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 GYX upping the irons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 That was January 1994. ORH was 9 with freezing rain while BOS was ripping dendrites. Ponder that. I know. I'm asking what day it was. I wanted to look at the obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 12z gfs seems kind of meh It's warmer again. If the Euro follows suit..... By 6z almost 1/2 of CT is already above the critical CT's at 1000-850 and from there it blasts north. By 9z they're tickling Will and Ray. Every run speeds that up. It's a good front end hit, but how good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Beginning to look rather grave around here. Lowering expectations again. 0-2 here. How things have changed 0-2? No. Not sure there is anything that supports that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Beginning to look rather grave around here. Lowering expectations again. 0-2 here. How things have changed That's too low, you'll get at least an inch, and maybe 3 or 4 if things work out. Ironically about the same here. The critical thicknesses are breached further west into CT before they are over EMA because this thing is now going so far west. UGH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Lol GFS pings to Laconia at the end. We're good up here. It's all post dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 GYX upping the irons StormTotalSnowFcst-1.png Looks just like the previous map that got lowered and raised. They sure cover all the bases, I have been forecasted just about every possible total up to 14". Funny thing is, with 1+' qpf on all models if we get some decent growth, they'll bust on every single one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Lol GFS pings to Laconia at the end. Soundings try to bring ash/mht above freezing at 12z. I'm skeptical of that but I do think we mix with IP around 11-12z or so. Most of the damage is done at the point though maybe lose an inch or 2 at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It's warmer again. If the Euro follows suit..... By 6z almost 1/2 of CT is already above the critical CT's at 1000-850 and from there it blasts north. By 9z they're tickling Will and Ray. Every run speeds that up. It's a good front end hit, but how good? the front end should be pretty freaking solid...all models have some insane lift around 700-600mb. What kind of sucks though (and I think Ryan made mention) is that eventually the stronger omega values actually move towards the lower levels of the atmosphere. What also sucks too is there is likely to be some subsidence going on somewhere and actually the NAM kind of shows this...looks like it might be centered over CT too haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Soundings try to bring ash/mht above freezing at 12z. I'm skeptical of that but I do think we mix with IP around 11-12z or so. Most of the damage is done at the point though maybe lose an inch or 2 at the end.I find it hard to believe we get above freezing. Prob some ZR tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Looks just like the previous map that got lowered and raised. They sure cover all the bases, I have been forecasted just about every possible total up to 14". Funny thing is, with 1+' qpf on all models if we get some decent growth, they'll bust on every single one. Bow has never been forecast for 14" from this event. You've been near the cut off in ranges (10") so you've been waffling on either side of it with forecast updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Looks just like the previous map that got lowered and raised. They sure cover all the bases, I have been forecasted just about every possible total up to 14". Funny thing is, with 1+' qpf on all models if we get some decent growth, they'll bust on every single one. I'm not worried about the over with these trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 0-2? No. Not sure there is anything that supports that. Well every model run seems to be warming. Im really tempering expectationsJust my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 What day was that? The last really cold ZR I remember was 1/14/99. Jan 8th 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 the front end should be pretty freaking solid...all models have some insane lift around 700-600mb. What kind of sucks though (and I think Ryan made mention) is that eventually the stronger omega values actually move towards the lower levels of the atmosphere. What also sucks too is there is likely to be some subsidence going on somewhere and actually the NAM kind of shows this...looks like it might be centered over CT too haha RGEM is warmer than 0z too but still implies a good hit in CMA and interior EMA. Thing is this is a multi model multi run increase in torchiness...probably unlikely that it's over right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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