weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not crazy about the mid level track... not sure if it might suggest dryslot here or an underplayed icestorm for Hfd/Spfd though. m/l warmth does tend to rocket up the valley. This is what is highly intriguing. Going back to past post about the HP, if that does end up being stronger than what was advertised, that just further enforces colder air locked in towards the sfc but then again, a track even further east also means less WAA aloft. Really a tough call right now. The dry slot potential is also rather intriguing but it does appear the dry slot wouldn't occur until after the heaviest of the precipitation has passed...but you know how dry slots can be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The more NW solutions really haven't changed my forecast much...since we never really had a redeveloped mid-level center before them...save for maybe 1-2 weenie NAM runs. All it does it push the eventual "ending as sleet and ZR" line further north, but it doesn't really discourage the big front end thump. It might lower my accums by an inch or two at most.Lots of panic and crying over nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I wonder how much grab azz Ekster and OceanSt will play? Heavy, heavy slap tickle. Looks like the mid shift didn't change my thinking too much, maybe a tad more snow in SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Shh you will jinx us The key will be the 00-06z period... where the best frontogenesis goes right over us (and actually over CT, RI, MA and most of the coastal states). This will the period where we could be cranking out 1-2" per hour snowfall rates at times. Afterwards we fight both the dry slot aloft (moisture become shallow and outside of the snow growth temperature range) and the warming profile (although we just barely stay below freezing in the entire column in ALB). The latter fact won't matter when we only have low level vertical velocities generating precipitation in a shallow column that is outside of the snow growth zone, so expect to see more sleet/freezing rain in the 09-12z period even in ALB. Do you buy the 12Z NAM'? Everyone was thinking that it was a NW outlier, but it seems like it might have lead the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Lots of panic and crying over nothing discussion over the models/radar etc is not panicking or crying, that is what the obs thread is for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Lots of panic and crying over nothingYou should be concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 ZR threat def increased down there. Maybe Ginx or Will can remember, I'm still a little foggy from sleep and can't remember the date, but I'm reminded of a southern RI ice storm. They were ripping ZR in South County while in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Flags flying from all referees on the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Those surprised by the early starting time for the snowfall and the early significant accumulations should take it as a sign the more inland solutions have some validity. Already we are seeing mid-level frontogenesis starting to squeeze out mesoscale snow bands that could drop some significant snowfall in the next 3-6 hours across CT, RI and MA. This band 24 hours ago was suppose to be a good 50-100 km south of where its affecting now. Heck we are on the edge of a snowband in ALB right now when we really aren't expecting any significant precipitation till after 18z. If there is a stronger upper-level system downstream, you would expect a corresponding increase in mid-upper level heights upstream helping to tighten up the temperature gradient against the arctic air (frontogenesis). This is what is happening right now. Yea but Phil it also can mean significant accumulations and fronto before the massive warming takes place, the dry slot just flies through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 those OES bands looks great, can't wait till they flip direction and start coming east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Maybe Ginx or Will can remember, I'm still a little foggy from sleep and can't remember the date, but I'm reminded of a southern RI ice storm. They were ripping ZR in South County while in the teens. Jan 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 SREF's flags flying. Oh-oh. Umm, what is one to believe? SREF progs for say BDR are a 10% chance of 1 inch, they have two already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 thanks, will check that out, I used this http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/usfntsfcwbg.gif but position of the high is critical also right? Yes it is, especially for the flow to allow colder air to be locked in towards the sfc. Once the HP moves slightly east, that is a stronger signal for keeping cold air locked in and reinforcing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 those OES bands looks great, can't wait till they flip direction and start coming east shouldn't be long. can already see it taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 You should be concerned Of what? I'm getting 8-10 inches of snow and some ice on top. Nothing has changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 SREF progs for say BDR are a 10% chance of 1 inch, they have two already no they had this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 You should be concerned Meh on rubbing it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 How far inland will the OES go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Jan 94 Thank you, I was pretty sure it was January but I couldn't remember the year. It's a good example for all the "but it's so cold at the surface" weenies out there that don't think mixing can happen with this kind of air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 How far inland will the OES go? The band that just but me died just inland. Not the best setup. I'm curious to see what type of penetration they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 SREF progs for say BDR are a 10% chance of 1 inch, they have two already ha on there way to 4" before the actual "dump" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I can't get over how impressive radar is.. If it snows like this somehow til 10pm when the changeover occurs.. we will have 6" just from this intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The band that just but me died just inland. Not the best setup. I'm curious to see what type of penetration they have. this may be the type of OES set-up that actually favors scooters hood up to BOS and even the N shore. i don't see us getting much from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Lots of panic and crying over nothing Well if you wanted to stay 100% dendrites, then it is discouraging having a bit more NW solution....but I never really expected to stay 100% snow. It is still basically a SWFE with just a more rapidly developing sfc reflection along the coast than is typical...the mid-levels often win out in this situation. But the battle before that happens is where we make hay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Silver lining? If the storm ends as a period of sleet/freezing rain, it'll better preserve the snowpack through any temporary increase in warm temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Lots of panic and crying over nothing 6-8". Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Do you buy the 12Z NAM'? Everyone was thinking that it was a NW outlier, but it seems like it might have lead the pack. I think its too aggressive with precip, but the track might not be too far off reality given the more amp up nature of the southern stream s/w. This is allowing the initial low in this miller-b solution to be more dominant for longer before it transfers energy to the coast. Yea but Phil it also can mean significant accumulations and fronto before the massive warming takes place, the dry slot just flies through. Oh I agree... again most of the precipitation falls before the warming takes place... just ending with some light sleet/freezing rain/rain depending on how close a person is to the surface coastal front. All I am saying that the main event will probably be earlier than guidance was pointing yesterday with a greater chance of liquid precipitation towards the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Meh on rubbing it inIt was a joke...settle down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 this may be the type of OES set-up that actually favors scooters hood up to BOS and even the N shore. i don't see us getting much from it.East winds with no support at 8h usually are bad news here. We got a coating from the first one hoping for a few more bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Thank you, I was pretty sure it was January but I couldn't remember the year. It's a good example for all the "but it's so cold at the surface" weenies out there that don't think mixing can happen with this kind of air mass. I was 9 degrees and ripping rain, talk about dumbfounded in my hallow that day. The shotgun shells lasted all night to wake up with probably the most beautiful glimmering sunrise of my life, and you know what happened after. The return of Leon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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