ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 My final call is 6-10" here. Guidance is pretty much unanimous on mixing arriving at the pike region around 09-10z....this should give at least 5-6 hours of higher omega after the overrunning stuff in the afternoon/early evening. Then I suspect we'll get about a 2-3 hour period of heavy sleet with maybe some ZR to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 we've got 1.5 inches here already...18 degrees nice keep the snow reports coming I'll be there at 12pm probably going live early as usual .. only .6" here in seymour waiting for that band to move in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 snowing here Nice. "Weathertap has solid returns over all of western MA (west of 91)--nary a flake here at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just over one inch now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 we've got 1.5 inches here already...18 degrees SW ct winter... Again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Man that is a hellacious warm tongue around 750-800mb on the NAM. Even MPM pings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 hi Res tossed?Apparently . Seems like all using nam despite performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 we have an obs thread guys, please use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 we've got 1.5 inches here already...18 degrees congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Apparently . Seems like all using nam despite performance what model should be used? they are all NW and warmer than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanInWayland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 BGM is half-mile moderate right now. 12F. LOL. that's awesome. would never want to live out there, but the winters in upstate NY are the real deal. some of those hill towns between BGM and ALB can get smoked. Amen to that. I grew up just outside of Albany and half our school district was in the Hudson Valley, the other half hill towns. At least once a year we had a "half snow day" where we valley-dwellers had school, but school canx for the hill dwellers (school was in the valley, so it was a bus issue--we had a large school district). We would even have elevation storm situations where they had to suddenly send all the hill town kids home in the middle of the school day to make sure the buses could make it back. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 what model should be used? they are all NW and warmer than yesterday.I don't know but would think nam would be last with GFS close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just dumping in BDR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I don't know but would think nam would be last with GFS close hopefully I can get into that OES in a couple of hours, lowering my expectations to 4-6" from 8-10" just not liking the trends, either way I'm happy, have not checked on the Tuesday system yet, hopefully another 2-3" from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 One thing I guess to watch for too is the high pressure. I guess it's a bit stronger than modeled? If that holds in place a bit longer that could in the end result in a more easterly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'll remind folks to think about Philly last weekend . Some similarities, some differences.. Just keep it in back of mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Thinking I could see freezing rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 SW ct winter... Again! Look at that weenie band parked over us! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Those surprised by the early starting time for the snowfall and the early significant accumulations should take it as a sign the more inland solutions have some validity. Already we are seeing mid-level frontogenesis starting to squeeze out mesoscale snow bands that could drop some significant snowfall in the next 3-6 hours across CT, RI and MA. This band 24 hours ago was suppose to be a good 50-100 km south of where its affecting now. Heck we are on the edge of a snowband in ALB right now when we really aren't expecting any significant precipitation till after 18z. If there is a stronger upper-level system downstream, you would expect a corresponding increase in mid-upper level heights upstream helping to tighten up the temperature gradient against the arctic air (frontogenesis). This is what is happening right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 hopefully I can get into that OES in a couple of hours, lowering my expectations to 4-6" from 8-10" just not liking the trends, either way I'm happy, have not checked on the Tuesday system yet, hopefully another 2-3" from that. You're still 6''+ on the NAM verbatim before you sleet. I wouldn't cave that far yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah guys, keep the obs in the obs thread...model analysis, radar, analysis, forecasts, etc should be in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 SREF's flags flying. Oh-oh. Umm, what is one to believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 One thing I guess to watch for too is the high pressure. I guess it's a bit stronger than modeled? If that holds in place a bit longer that could in the end result in a more easterly track. 1037mb @ 13z did I read that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 1037mb @ 13z did I read that right? The mesoanalysis page has 1040 contour now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 not a fan of them in general...but the sref snow probs are horrible for SNE. not sure how the algorithms work. given high thickness event, could see where they aren't seeing the snow in SNE well, but geez. The good news is this oes is accumulating. If bands can setup some should make hay today. Tonight is a lost cause I think for more than a quick few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not crazy about the mid level track... not sure if it might suggest dryslot here or an underplayed icestorm for Hfd/Spfd though. m/l warmth does tend to rocket up the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Some how I can't help but think we will be fine. Let's see what gfs does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 You're still 6''+ on the NAM verbatim before you sleet. I wouldn't cave that far yet. The more NW solutions really haven't changed my forecast much...since we never really had a redeveloped mid-level center before them...save for maybe 1-2 weenie NAM runs. All it does it push the eventual "ending as sleet and ZR" line further north, but it doesn't really discourage the big front end thump. It might lower my accums by an inch or two at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 1037mb @ 13z did I read that right? Biggest snowfall I've measured (26.5" in Ft.Kent, 3/14-15/84) came with pressure drifting down from 1030 to 1020. Of course, that's the only major event I've seen at such high readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The mesoanalysis page has 1040 contour now thanks, will check that out, I used this http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/usfntsfcwbg.gif but position of the high is critical also right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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