amarshall Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It's not often you'll see an NWS snow map with amounts so uniform across the state. 6-8" from Beverly to the Berkshires. There will of course be some surprises in places. Awesome, region wide dumping. Toaster baths galore in SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Thumper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That Snowfall Map looks underdone. I know this because in the "woods" of CT. are not in the 18-24" range. I foresee a bump of as much 4-8" in Essex County just NW of Boston with a sharper delineation of the CF to the S. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 BOX map is balls to the wall up here. Time to start feeling confident on how this shakes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Toaster baths galore in SE Mass You'll get a good 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Thumper. Gonna be interesting to see how much I can thump out here in far SW CT before the change over to 35 and rain lol..I'd say 3-6 is fair in Stamford...more ice just north of me..GFS has me torching to 44º by 10PM on an ENE wind...OK GFS, WHATEVER YOU SAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Kinda wierd how gfs is se of nam with the upper air features yet its warmer. Nam brings the dry slot into most of CT and RI, but it stays cold until the cf slides through, then Precip shuts off. Regardless, it looks like a line from nw ct to coastal me look very good for 12". Also most of interior NE do very well. Deff a spread the wealth system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 BTV's map... 8-10" here and 10-14" mountain. I'm cautiously optimistic for 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Is there any concern with this? The High has remained pretty consistent... Wed the high was less ideal placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 BTV's map... 8-10" here and 10-14" mountain. I'm cautiously optimistic for 6+. snowfall.JPG 6+? Double that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Gonna be interesting to see how much I can thump out here in far SW CT before the change over to 35 and rain lol..I'd say 3-6 is fair in Stamford...more ice just north of me..GFS has me torching to 44º by 10PM on an ENE wind...OK GFS, WHATEVER YOU SAY. I have a hard time believing gfs thermal profile. I will be in shelton during this, a good dump then ice is reasonable, all depending where the cf sets up and how much cold air erodes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'd add some on the mid cape based in the front ender. I've been saying 1-3" down here for a couple of days and I think that's still on target. These things almost always underproduce imby as we warm faster than planned. Still it's a good producer for this early in the year. Today is the day that any perturbations should even out and it is interesting that the ticks NW haven't stopped as the s/w exited the sw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 You'll get a good 3-6 God I hope so. My christmas party is Saturday night. I'll be horrifying the new neighbors with nude snowblowing at 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GYX map has been updated this morning. Probably more changes with future model runs before the flakes fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 God I hope so. My christmas party is Saturday night. I'll be horrifying the new neighbors with nude snowblowing at 2am. You live in one of the top communities in the state, but remember you ride the line in winter lol. Hopefully you don't live near the water. Big difference between NW and down by the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I've been saying 1-3" down here for a couple of days and I think that's still on target. These things almost always underproduce imby as we warm faster than planned. Still it's a good producer for this early in the year. Today is the day that any perturbations should even out and it is interesting that the ticks NW haven't stopped as the s/w exited the sw us. 06z stopped that for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 SREFs still have me hit double digits http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131213&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BDL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=42.044961630302105&mLON=-72.3618666015625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GYX map has been updated this morning. Probably more changes with future model runs before the flakes fly. How does this make any sense? I am not seeing only 8 inches of snow. Last map was much better. I don't understand them sometimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can a mod change the dates in the title. Or does Tipster need to do it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Gonna be interesting to see how much I can thump out here in far SW CT before the change over to 35 and rain lol..I'd say 3-6 is fair in Stamford...more ice just north of me..GFS has me torching to 44º by 10PM on an ENE wind...OK GFS, WHATEVER YOU SAY. The water is still in the mid-40s, but 44 is a bit aggressive. Wouldn't be shocked to touch 40 briefly though before falling back a bit during the day Sunday. Expecting a decent gradient between here and HPN. A couple inches by late tomorrow afternoon, then a few more in the evening before mixing. After this we'll be about a quarter of the way to our seasonal average before December is even half over, so I'll take it without complaint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 06z stopped that for the most part. Yeah I don't see where this idea of NW trend came from. 00z was the same as 12z really..and 6z went SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How does this make any sense? I am not seeing only 8 inches of snow. Last map was much better. I don't understand them sometimes... Could be that we are in the situation where any indication of small variations of track of the storm at any time could tweak the amount of snow we see by 2"-4 ". I liked the earlier map as well but maybe all yesterdays NW trends were a little too much and (as I've seen a few mention) the possibility of a slight shift back SE even just a little might make the difference. Just a guess from someone who just tries to follow the discussions as best as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 06z stopped that for the most part. Good let's hope. What do you make of my area to Phil as a rough guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah I don't see where this idea of NW trend came from. 00z was the same as 12z really..and 6z went SE Dissapointing interpretation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Could be that we are in the situation where any indication of small variations of track of the storm at any time could tweak the amount of snow we see by 2"-4 ". I liked the earlier map as well but maybe all yesterdays NW trends were a little too much and (as I've seen a few mention) the possibility of a slight shift back SE even just a little might make the difference. Just a guess from someone who just tries to follow the discussions as best as possible. But there is no justified reason for it. All models seem to have settled somewhat on the NW track and no one has less than .5 an inch QPF. With high ratios of 18-1 or 20-1, they are saying we get .3-5 inches of QPF with bad snow growth. I can 100% guarantee this goes up this afternoon, and you may know why... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How does this make any sense? I am not seeing only 8 inches of snow. Last map was much better. I don't understand them sometimes... let the disappointment begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I have a hard time believing gfs thermal profile. I will be in shelton during this, a good dump then ice is reasonable, all depending where the cf sets up and how much cold air erodes. As do I. The water is still in the mid-40s, but 44 is a bit aggressive. Wouldn't be shocked to touch 40 briefly though before falling back a bit during the day Sunday. Expecting a decent gradient between here and HPN. A couple inches by late tomorrow afternoon, then a few more in the evening before mixing. After this we'll be about a quarter of the way to our seasonal average before December is even half over, so I'll take it without complaint. Certainly if the wind ticks east anymore then it is game on for 40...but if its parallel to to the coast i give it maybe upper 30s in Stamford and that is later Sat night not 10PM like the gfs shows (IMO). If say the low is bombing out a little more south of us and that wind ticks more northerly, then forget the surface warm up..Certainly agree with you about that gradient to hpn, but wonder if it strictly applies to icing as the mid-levels warm pretty steadily across the board..the surface temps are the questions...and yes, no complaints here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah I don't see where this idea of NW trend came from. 00z was the same as 12z really..and 6z went SE Wow lol...nice try... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Pickles, OT but you should have gone to the tug this week and come back to pwm for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 SREFs still have me hit double digits http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131213&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BDL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=42.044961630302105&mLON=-72.3618666015625&mTYP=roadmap Close to 12" for my area...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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