Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 You don't feel comfortable for my area..and are unsure..so you're not putting one out there..That's ok too. My call is 8-10 here and 6-8 for you scoots could get more than you depending on how quickly the low levels warm near BOS. if they hold, cold...it wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hasn't the GFS shown daytime light snow in CT for the last several runs? LOL. I was thinking that if Chris and I could finagle the ratios we had yesterday, we'd be over 20". Alas, we won't maintain those goose feather. You may be in the weenie sweet spot for this one. We're good to go up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 the euro is pretty darn warm, fwiw. more than 12z was too. it now has the 0C 850 line to MA/NH border by 12z tom. I'll peek at the 3hr stuff when I get into work. It sure was one hell of a thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Um the .01 increments on the models are producing some good rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Thanks. Yeah this hasn't really trended in the righ direction here at all. Hoping we can salvage a net gain and it all isn't washed awayShows what I know. Lol. Fingers crossed though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Seems good http://ow.ly/i/41vhU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 the euro is pretty darn warm, fwiw. more than 12z was too. it now has the 0C 850 line to MA/NH border by 12z tom. I just looked at the 0z Euro and was shocked to see the QPF for 12z Sunday and then just looked at 925mb temps and there is quite the temperature gradient. There are going to be some very impressive snowfall rates tomorrow across portions of central MA into southern NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 scoots could get more than you depending on how quickly the low levels warm near BOS. if they hold, cold...it wouldn't surprise me. I'm thinking I get similar amounts to him. Maybe an inch or two either way. It wouldn't surprise me if BOS gets a hair more than him. Obviously temps are different. Hoping for 5-7" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 the euro is pretty darn warm, fwiw. more than 12z was too. it now has the 0C 850 line to MA/NH border by 12z tom. The Euro at least keeps it cold before the torch at 850... and 6z it's still like -4c at 850mb while the 00z GFS is near 0. That shortwave looks great on water vapor... almost have to think that it's not done trending northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Verbatim, the Euro looks similar at that valid time. +4C at 850 over your head and a little above 32F at the sfc. If my area gets to 32 I will send you a 12 pack of Mich Ultra for Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Check out the 00z 4 km NAM forecast reflectivity for 11z Sunday morning. Noyes was tweeting about that. Salem, NH jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The Euro at least keeps it cold before the torch at 850... and 6z it's still like -4c at 850mb while the 00z GFS is near 0. That shortwave looks great on water vapor... almost have to think that it's not done trending northwest. Would be nice if we had some blocking. Stupid AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Good call on the early snow, at work lt snow has commenced where u at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 If my area gets to 32 I will send you a 12 pack of Mich Ultra for Xmas Even if it warms to 32, the surface temps are pretty cold, don't we run the risk of icing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hi res NAM is pretty prolific before any sleet/mix , this airmass is producing. Going to be total now cast, that dry slot may shut off things just as warming arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The Euro at least keeps it cold before the torch at 850... and 6z it's still like -4c at 850mb while the 00z GFS is near 0. That shortwave looks great on water vapor... almost have to think that it's not done trending northwest. I agree and it seems like models have been starting to pick up on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Would be nice if we had some blocking. Stupid AO. Yeah not much room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Was just looking at some of the NAM soundings and they definitely are quite intriguing. The question at play is how warm do the low levels get? Pretty much on the line of sleet vs. freezing rain but it definitely needs to be watched. I'm thinking you have ip, but not zr. Maybe a little as the dryslot moves in, but that would be it. You'll may be in the weenie sweet spot for this one. We're good to go on this one. I'm not worried about much at this point, though I'll take a look at the upcoming models regardless. The trend to warm is worrisome--glad it's 8 hours out and not 2 days with that trend. Um the .01 increments on the models are producing some good rates You should have seen what we managed up here with extremely light amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Had a chance to head for the hills (Bartlett nh), but am staying put. Didn't feel like spending the gas. Looks like they are good for double digits up there. Should be nice for the ski resorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm thinking I get similar amounts to him. Maybe an inch or two either way. It wouldn't surprise me if BOS gets a hair more than him. Obviously temps are different. Hoping for 5-7" here. Ok then your forecast for this area is 5-7. I'm 8-10..Good luck to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Flash freeze for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 where u at? Ledyard CT, roads previously uncovered walkways grounds dusted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm thinking you have ip, but not zr. Maybe a little as the dryslot moves in, but that would be it. I'm not worried about much at this point, though I'll take a look at the upcoming models regardless. The trend to warm is worrisome--glad it's 8 hours out and not 2 days with that trend. You should have seen what we managed up here with extremely light amounts. I don't think the trend to warm has any affect on you at your location at all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not many newscasts last night at 11 had roads covered at 8 in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Noyes was tweeting about that. Salem, NH jackpot?Impossible...Ray was supposed to get more than up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 If my area gets to 32 I will send you a 12 pack of Mich Ultra for XmasI'm not saying I believe it...just that the profile isn't too different from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Ok then your forecast for this area is 5-7. I'm 8-10..Good luck to all No I think 6-8" for you. I said it would not shock me if this trends more towards a latitudinal gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 scoots could get more than you depending on how quickly the low levels warm near BOS. if they hold, cold...it wouldn't surprise me. Exactly what I was trying to point out earlier when I was digging into the models. It appeared to me that the warm air push aloft is a bit stronger in CT and south of the MA pike with a significant latitudinal gradient so it's possible the pingers are a bigger problem south than some are anticipating. For BOS the 850s hold out a bit longer but the battle is against the onshore flow at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The Euro at least keeps it cold before the torch at 850... and 6z it's still like -4c at 850mb while the 00z GFS is near 0. That shortwave looks great on water vapor... almost have to think that it's not done trending northwest. Given the pretty recent uniform move, I don't see reason to expect that it has. We'll know soon enough though....a couple more hours and just sit back and enjoy what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The trend to warm is worrisome--glad it's 8 hours out and not 2 days with that trend.If you want your QPF fetish satiated then the warming trend comes with it too. You'll be fine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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