ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Thundersnow would trump any amount that accumulates. Doesn't happen that often, heck we get more two foot snowstorms than blue flashes and rumbling during snowfalling. I would stay up all night for that.... Yeah obviously I wouldn't "predict" thundersnow, but throwing it out that we might have a better shot than normal for it. Anytime you see an unstbale layer in the snowgrowth region of roughly 100mb, then you are fair game for some TSSN+ and prob 3"+ per hour rates. But this is still just model data...we'll see how the thing evolves tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm thinking the period between 03z and 06z could be a favored time for thundersnow...a lot of soundings over SNE have a saturated unstable layer in the snowgrowth region for a time during that period.I hope someone in here gets it. Low chance but would be neat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah obviously I wouldn't "predict" thundersnow, but throwing it out that we might have a better shot than normal for it. Anytime you see an unstbale layer in the snowgrowth region of roughly 100mb, then you are fair game for some TSSN+ and prob 3"+ per hour rates. But this is still just model data...we'll see how the thing evolves tomorrow evening.And not that I have a clue what to look for, but a couple of mentions if it on here and in the twittersphere give me hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Will Cantore be in ORH tmw night? 17 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The earlier runs prior to 18Z were unstable in the mid levels. My mid level instability prog had almost -LIs up until the 18z runs. Hubbdave had a pants tent for it. Did 00z come in unstable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Gfs we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 0Z runs are walloping NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Will Cantore be in ORH tmw night? 17 years... Hard to believe that was 17 years ago. Everytime he comes to ORH, good things happen. When he arrived last March with 8-12" forecast, we ended up with nearly 23 inches. Dec '96 is still the best though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Will Cantore be in ORH tmw night? 17 years... Sadly, no...I already asked him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Gfs we toss Soooo. tossing NAM and GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Will Cantore be in ORH tmw night? No. He will be in Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Soooo. tossing NAM and GFS?NAM, GFS, SREFs, and SoundingsIn NOGAPS we trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 0Z runs are walloping NH.My dad would approve (big fan of walloping - the word, mind you) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 0Z runs are walloping NH. Definite shift of the strongest banding signal inland some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah obviously I wouldn't "predict" thundersnow, but throwing it out that we might have a better shot than normal for it. Anytime you see an unstbale layer in the snowgrowth region of roughly 100mb, then you are fair game for some TSSN+ and prob 3"+ per hour rates. But this is still just model data...we'll see how the thing evolves tomorrow evening. I would think given the lift progged that a few flashes will happen somewhere at any rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Uncle has gotten significantly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Uncle has gotten significantly colder. It kind of had no choice...it was definitely the warm outlier the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM, GFS, SREFs, and Soundings In NOGAPS we trust ... and crazy uncle? Uncle has gotten significantly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Seen some consistentcy the past few runs speeding this system up. Over by noon Sunday for most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Seen some consistentcy the past few runs speeding this system up. Over by noon Sunday for most?. I think that was established earlier? Maybe some light stuff early afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 lol, At this thread, Which model is left to hug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wagons north. Although PWM flirts too much with the dry slot on this run even. IZG wins yet again. IZG always wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 lol, At this thread, Which model is left to hug? Probably the CRAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM, GFS, SREFs, and Soundings In NOGAPS we trust Just go on gut feelings. Models be damned. It's a tough call though, with a January air mass over a December ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Seen some consistentcy the past few runs speeding this system up. Over by noon Sunday for most? The only one who thought it wasnt over by 11am in sne was blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Well the cold is digging in now....dropping rapidly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Soooo. tossing NAM and GFS? Lol just joking. Have fun guys I will be happy with 1-3" like most Irish wives. Nothing wrong with models it's coming nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nice, cold air mass ahead of this pig. 12F here but single digits nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 lol, At this thread, Which model is left to hug? seriously lol, see's like every model is being tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just go on gut feelings. Models be damned. It's a tough call though, with a January air mass over a December ocean. Glad I am not near the ocean for this...lol. Very interesting storm to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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