SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Its absolutely horrendous on the precip over the Oh Valley, shows nothing into OH really by 06Z yet its already snowing in DAY and CVG...it may be right on how everything evolves from 00z onward tomorrow but its clueless on the snow shield tomorrow probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nam has had significant differences run to run. I would have thought this close in..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 2:37 AM, Tropopause_Fold said: yeah i think up to 4" is pretty reasonable for most of this region. think it'll mostly be gone by Sun midday, but...whatever. 12/16/07 gave his area like 5-6"...and that airmass was actually a little less cold than this one and the sfc low went about over Weymouth or Marshfield. Granted, not every storm system is the same and some unlucky mesoscale breaks could screw someone, but just about every analog for this type of setup is giving pretty solid front end snows even down to the canal....so yeah, I think 2-4" is a good starting point and I think there might be potential for 6"+ pretty close to the canal (though prob a bit NW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just give me the thump. I know my fate, but the thump is key. That should happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 2:52 AM, CoastalWx said: Just give me the thump. I know my fate, but the thump is key. That should happen. Scared off by one nam run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 2:54 AM, weathafella said: Scared off by one nam run? Probably scared off by his location... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 2:48 AM, ORH_wxman said: 12/16/07 gave his area like 5-6"...and that airmass was actually a little less cold than this one and the sfc low went about over Weymouth or Marshfield. Granted, not every storm system is the same and some unlucky mesoscale breaks could screw someone, but just about every analog for this type of setup is giving pretty solid front end snows even down to the canal....so yeah, I think 2-4" is a good starting point and I think there might be potential for 6"+ pretty close to the canal (though prob a bit NW) CIPS seems to be settling into a classic look to the snow gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 RGEM not buying the nam show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 RPM really likes the area just NW of BOS...but is even good into the city with 6"+. KTOL with about 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 2:57 AM, SnowMan said: Probably scared off by his location... He shouldn't be IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 snowfall gradient becoming more and more latitude dependent on guidance now. goes along with the general climo on these things but neat to see the evolution playing out even on the snow products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 2:54 AM, weathafella said: Scared off by one nam run? You mean my comment? All I mean is give me the thump. I'll bang S+ for a little while anyways. It's not the best track, but the antecedent cold allows this from not being a shotgun swallower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 3:05 AM, Tropopause_Fold said: snowfall gradient becoming more and more latitude dependent on guidance now. goes along with the general climo on these things but neat to see the evolution playing out even on the snow products. Part of me thought about the idea of BOS getting as much as TOL. Maybe even a hair more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 3:05 AM, Tropopause_Fold said: snowfall gradient becoming more and more latitude dependent on guidance now. goes along with the general climo on these things but neat to see the evolution playing out even on the snow products. 'Tis the season to be northy, fa la la la la, fa la la la Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 3:05 AM, Tropopause_Fold said: snowfall gradient becoming more and more latitude dependent on guidance now. goes along with the general climo on these things but neat to see the evolution playing out even on the snow products. Guidance is figuring out that the mid-level temps are going to be the primary driver of snowfall gradient. Its going to take a long while before the maritime airmass can penetrate this beastly arctic airmass more than right along the immediate beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 2:52 AM, CoastalWx said: Just give me the thump. I know my fate, but the thump is key. That should happen. That's how I feel at this point. I said it back on Wednesday that I expected the CT shoreline to go over to rain at some point...and here we are. Funny thing is I just started buying into the colder solutions this afternoon...then the NAM does this. Not sure it can totally be discounted...as 18z did introduce a but more warmth along the coast. 18z was actually the first run that showed HVN going to rain with still some appreciable QPF left. May have been starting a bit of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 3:05 AM, Tropopause_Fold said: snowfall gradient becoming more and more latitude dependent on guidance now. goes along with the general climo on these things but neat to see the evolution playing out even on the snow products. Meaning my south of Boston location should give me a crap load of sleet and rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 12:43 AM, Chrisrotary12 said: You know the scene in the movie Twister when they are having lunch at the Aunts House. And non-chaser girl asks if there is an F5 and everyone goes silent. 12-9-05 is our F5 where we go silent. That made me laugh On 12/14/2013 at 2:26 AM, CoastalWx said: Maybe this is akin to the run that brought the Feb blizzard over HYA lol. I remember that run the night before that gave 40" to where i was staying that weekend up at hunter mountain, and like 5" qpf to north NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 3:07 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 'Tis the season to be northy, fa la la la la, fa la la la You're going to clean up in this one. I bet you're around a foot, I'm around 10'' when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 3:07 AM, ORH_wxman said: snowfall gradient becoming more and more latitude dependent on guidance now. goes along with the general climo on these things but neat to see the evolution playing out even on the snow products. Guidance is figuring out that the mid-level temps are going to be the primary driver of snowfall gradient. Its going to take a long while before the maritime airmass can penetrate this beastly arctic airmass more than right along the immediate beaches. yep. i still feel the way i did earlier today which is that the immediate shore from just north of BOS to the Cape is the toughest forecast. i can still see 6"+ or 2". until it's actually evolving, it's really hard to say. inland/n of the pike, it's relatively easy. just a matter of how quick it shuts off etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 2:54 AM, weathafella said: Scared off by one nam run? It's Pavlovian--the results of years living in his old hood. On 12/14/2013 at 3:02 AM, Tropopause_Fold said: RPM really likes the area just NW of BOS...but is even good into the city with 6"+. KTOL with about 4" How's it liking the area way the hell NW of BOS? TIA. 13.9/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 3:11 AM, DomNH said: You're going to clean up in this one. I bet you're around a foot, I'm around 10'' when all is said and done. reverse that and I would agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 3:09 AM, Cold Miser said: Meaning my south of Boston location should give me a crap load of sleet and rain? In oh so many storms I remember, Brooklyn flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 3:12 AM, SnowMan said: reverse that and I would agree... Nope. I'll take Wilmington over ASH in this setup every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 3:12 AM, SnowMan said: reverse that and I would agree... you fly under the radar as one of the boards biggest s. you just haven't been here long enough to get the title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 RGEMs good. NAM = we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 3:14 AM, Tropopause_Fold said: you fly under the radar as one of the boards biggest s. you just haven't been here long enough to get the title. It's really come out with this storm lol. I fear for his mental health when an ern ma or south of pike special comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Where did the RGEM track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 3:12 AM, SnowMan said: reverse that and I would agree... It's not as simple as the generic "Nashua will get more because they're north" argument.....knowledge of local climo helps. 1) Nashua is usually in a relative nadir for snowfall due to their location within the armpit of the MRV 2) My area is more favored to reap the benefits from cf attributed lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 On 12/14/2013 at 3:16 AM, CoastalWx said: It's really come out with this storm lol. I fear for his mental health when an ern ma or south of pike special comes. All been a weenie but you're right - I have just started to post more with this storm. I'll tone it down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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