Chrisrotary12 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Even if the cold air did hang around down there the ratios wouldn't be good enough to just 10-14 Touche. Been a long few days. Not thinking clearly. Terrible ratios are why interior SE MA are only 5-8" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Touche. Been a long few days. Not thinking clearly. Terrible ratios are why interior SE MA are only 5-8" for me. If it did stay all snow, I think someone could swing 10 inches. The ratios are going to be really good for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Say what you will about the model, but this is a situation where I would love to see the GFS have data every 3 hours. It shows the potential for really healthy banded precip in the WAA, but it is around Long Island at 06z and over CON to PWM by 12z. Basically it is intimating that SNE peaks around 09z. You can still get the idea from the cross section here (running from E of LI to near LEB), but the mid levels are starting to dry out already by 12z. On the left side, frontogenesis on the bottom panel is going to be strong and there is a nice layer of -EPV above it (good for banding). The top right is RH with ageostrophic streamlines overlaid on it. As a result of that frontogenesis you'll get a nice thermally direct circulation that forms, leading to the strong lift on the warm side of the mid level front. Bottom right is off on the color curve (air mass changes the color scale but the colors don't follow it, damn computers) but you can infer the numbers showing strong lift (15+ ubar/s) through the snow growth zone around 09z if you back up the lift near EEN to the S (right of the panel). I'm disappointed that my tax dollars can't give you the 3hrly GFS images. We can do some 3hrly x-sections on our model page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 You can see my forecast on this: http://weatherchest.blogspot.com Don't make fun of my art work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Even if the cold air did hang around down there the ratios wouldn't be good enough to just 10-14 BS. Don't fall into the "ratios are dictated by low level temps" crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm disappointed that my tax dollars can't give you the 3hrly GFS images. We can do some 3hrly x-sections on our model page. Bandwidth FTL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 BS. Don't fall into the "ratios are dictated by low level temps" crap. I wasn't...I was assuming the mid levels wouldn't be that great and as a result snow growth would not be as good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 You can see my forecast on this: http://weatherchest.blogspot.com Don't make fun of my art work. A good write up. Do you have a lot of readers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 You can see my forecast on this: http://weatherchest.blogspot.com Don't make fun of my art work. I agree with the map, totally....however I don't think the formation of the cf will hold off until the end, rather the precip type change will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 A good write up. Do you have a lot of readers? My facebook friends lol. I only make posts when something garners wide interest. I also make posts that my help me understand things better because as you know, there is always something new to learn in meteorology. Oh, and twitter followers... @gtabwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I wasn't...I was assuming the mid levels wouldn't be that great and as a result snow growth would not be as good Snow growth will be good when it counts.....most of the damage is done by the time that they decline, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 My facebook friends lol. I only make posts when something garners wide interest. I also make posts that my help me understand things better because as you know, there is always something new to learn in meteorology. You probably post a ton during spring and summer about sunny days and nice weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Bandwidth FTL...Our 39hr GFS maps...MPV to BID (I think like you had) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Our 39hr GFS maps...MPV to BID (I think like you had) image.jpg image.jpg image.jpg Is there an easy explanation to understanding and interpreting these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 You can see my forecast on this: http://weatherchest.blogspot.com Don't make fun of my art work. Nice work! The only criticism (constructive) that I have ... and it really is pretty minor, is that I would suggest removing Tolland CT from any accumulation. In fact, any warning and/or advisory status rescinded, and all Special and/or Hazards posting conferred, just for that one location. Otherwise it looks spot on ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
esmango Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 East Bridgewater/Hanson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Oh Tippy... Ayer should clean up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 srefs look like they go over the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I agree with the map, totally....however I don't think the formation of the cf will hold off until the end, rather the precip type change will. Thanks man! You probably post a ton during spring and summer about sunny days and nice weather Haha potential severe outbreaks. Nice work! The only criticism (constructive) that I have ... and it really is pretty minor, is that I would suggest removing Tolland CT from any accumulation. In fact, any warning and/or advisory status rescinded, and all Special and/or Hazards posting conferred, just for that one location. Otherwise it looks spot on ... Thank you! I was thinking of putting a little tiny circle of 20"+ where Kevin lives lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 srefs look like they go over the cape Is that a change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 We toss SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Is that a change? Looks pretty close to 15z. Maybe a hair west but its pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Is there an easy explanation to understanding and interpreting these?I won't get into momentum, ageo circulation, or theta-e (mainly because I'm on my ipad and hate typing on it), but these are cross sections of the atmosphere. They're all from MPV (left) to BID (right) at 39hrs (9Z Sun) from today's 18Z GFS. The top image shows RH (color fill) and the dashed lines are omega. The middle image has the omega shaded. The middle horizontal point of the charts would be the geographical midpoint of the line segment on the mini Google map. The vertical axis are the pressure levels like on soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 We toss SREFS Can you give a little more detail on that Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 We toss SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I won't get into momentum, ageo circulation, or theta-e (mainly because I'm on my ipad and hate typing on it), but these are cross sections of the atmosphere. They're all from MPV (left) to BID (right) at 39hrs (9Z Sun) from today's 18Z GFS. The top image shows RH (color fill) and the dashed lines are omega. The middle image has the omega shaded. The middle horizontal point of the charts would be the geographical midpoint of the line segment on the mini Google map. The vertical axis are the pressure levels like on soundings. Thanks. So I saw the map that shows the two points. If you are to the right side of the line how would that vary to being on the left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 We toss SREFSNo. We toss soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Good cluster on the sref plume for 10-15... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 No. We toss soundings ...well one of us does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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