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December 14/15 winter storm threat part II


Typhoon Tip

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Gotcha.  Yeah, I scratched my head a little bit at that...more so due to the lack of continuity with the neighboring BOX office than the actual forecast.  It looks to have been fixed.   

I was referring to the map before their 11AM update that had 10-14 in Litchfield County.  Its within a realm of acceptability IMO but I could see it being a little to high.

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GFS at 12z Sunday. Dry slot has worked into SNE by this time, but that is a nice signal for a solid band of heavy snow across southern NH and southwestern ME. 20 ubar/s solidly within a saturated snow growth zone. This look very similar across MA 6 hours before this panel.

 

attachicon.gifGFS_DGZ.jpg

 

 

Makes you wonder why the WSW in SNE is going to 1:00p.m. doesn't it?

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Yeah hoping for an inch but wondering if I can grab more. Big fluff.

 

 

It looks like OES starts during the morning on the Cape and then spreads northwest as the winds turn more easterly in the BL...that is damned cold too. I'd be surprised if there wasn't OES. the meso models are certainly pointing to it.

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Okay I'm familiar with that area. Yeah I think were in line for 4 to 8. Not sure what your thinking is

 

 

i think 6 is going to be the number but it all depends on the front end thump if it takes a while to get going its curtains and it will be 4.

 

I hope there is a 2 hour or so rain window b4 a dry slot or end of the storm, just to keep whatever is imby for the freeze

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Makes you wonder why the WSW in SNE is going to 1:00p.m. doesn't it?

 

It's kind of a quirk of verification on those products. It's better to have a wide goal post and cancel early than it is to have to extend it. Basically if we extend it and hit the warning we only get credit for one hit, but if we extend and miss the warning we get hit twice for the false alarm.

 

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It's kind of a quirk of verification on those products. It's better to have a wide goal post and cancel early than it is to have to extend it. Basically if we extend it and hit the warning we only get credit for one hit, but if we extend and miss the warning we get hit twice for the false alarm.

 

 

Thanks.  I read the warning with hope I'd be still getting some snow on Sunday (forecast says yes, that GFS map says nyet).

 

19.8/12

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Because light snows are going to linger much of the day Sunday as ULL moves across. it happens everytime and then there's all kinds of ..man it kept snowing a lot longer than i thought

Sometimes (by my recollection most of the time) the opposite seems to happen, other than mood snows.  I expect it to snow until, say, noon, and at 10AM, blue skies

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i think 6 is going to be the number but it all depends on the front end thump if it takes a while to get going its curtains and it will be 4.

I hope there is a 2 hour or so rain window b4 a dry slot or end of the storm, just to keep whatever is imby for the freeze

Exactly it really depends on the change. If it's early 4 or 5 if it's right on time 6 or 7. If it waits 8ish. Probably won't have a real good idea till the storm gets going.

Going to be fun regardless. Biggest early season snow in our backyards in several years

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Despite that, it still has very good looking isentropic lift across most of the area. Basically taking parcels around 925 mb near ACY and lifting them up to 725 mb by the northern Worcester Hills.

I think Will is right definitely convective issues here and there popping up. Would like to see a stronger track just outside of ack

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