40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I actually think a lot of us on here have used the teleconnections very well to predict this pattern....+NAO/-EPO is a classic gradient pattern with very cold north and warm south with the SE ridge tendency. That is exactly what we are getting. Ditto. Someone needs to thump onto the mattress and have themselves a nap....cranky lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 looked like the went over ack to me or close to it Well the BM is close to ACK...so prob splitting hairs, but this is what I had: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I actually think a lot of us on here have used the teleconnections very well to predict this pattern....+NAO/-EPO is a classic gradient pattern with very cold north and warm south with the SE ridge tendency. That is exactly what we are getting. How so? I see tons of troughiness with this pattern. To each his own but that's how I feel at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Imho, those that doubt using tele's ...might not fully understand why that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Imho, those that doubt using tele's ...might not fully understand why the works. I don't doubt them, I just feel like people bank on them. And I do understand how they work, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well the BM is close to ACK...so prob splitting hairs, but this is what I had: Northeast view on sv looked different, But needless to say splitting hairs at this point probably means little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How so? I see tons of troughiness with this pattern. To each his own but that's how I feel at least. The overall pattern has basically been cold across most of the US except for the SE. The pattern as shown by a -EPO +NAO in the past, is basically exactly what is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How so? I see tons of troughiness with this pattern. To each his own but that's how I feel at least. Here is the pattern since Mid-November when the EPO has been predominately negative and the NAO postive: We've def had troughiness at times, but the mean has been SE ridging. And that looks to continue...mean SE ridge though troughs will come through from time to time...but those troughs are "forced" into the ridge which makes for these southwest flow type events and overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Here is the pattern since Mid-November when the EPO has been predominately negative and the NAO postive: We've def had troughiness at times, but the mean has been SE ridging. And that looks to continue...mean SE ridge though troughs will come through from time to time...but those troughs are "forced" into the ridge which makes for these southwest flow type events and overrunning. **I edited this a bit to make my argument more understandable** Okay so you proved that we had an overall -EPO/+NAO setup, which I never doubted because models have been good with it, but when we get coastals like these, the one on 11/27, and perhaps the one around Christmas (still far out), which have dumped/have the potential to dump considerable amounts of precipitation, it shows that you can't put that much stock into them in regards to making a monthly/seasonal precipitation/snowfall forecast. After this upcoming event, many places may end up above normal for precipitation/snowfall for this time of year which goes against the fact that this setup (-EPO/+NAO) results in below normal precipitation/snowfall climatologically speaking. Whenever somebody asks me, "Oh what is December looking like snowfall wise?", I usually tell them that the pattern isn't favorable but it takes one or two storms to prove that wrong, because I know storms like these can happen in such patterns. Again, I'm not saying people are wrong, I'm not saying they're worthless to look at (because I love looking at them myself to give myself a foundational idea of what may be to come), I just think that they are slightly overrated in my opinion, especially when we get into little stormy patterns like these which tends to skew data and thoughts. Let's face it, I doubt many of you would actually put money down saying, "this winter will be less snowy because of a -EPO/+NAO." Why? Because nobody knows how it'll actually play out. I hope you see where I'm coming from on this. I'm not asking anyone to agree but at least to understand my point of argument. Also, I did the same exact reanalysis as you and got this, not sure why my SE ridge isn't as prevalent as yours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro is similar to other 00z guidance (maybe a shade colder than Ukie/GFS)....its going with a monster front ender. (prob like 6-10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That was interesting, 00z Euro NW of 12z, Big thump on the front end for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro is similar to other 00z guidance (maybe a shade colder than Ukie/GFS)....its going with a monster front ender. (prob like 6-10) Looks like it also amped up QPF totals a bit further westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro is similar to other 00z guidance (maybe a shade colder than Ukie/GFS)....its going with a monster front ender. (prob like 6-10) How much did it show my way? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looks like it also amped up QPF totals a bit further westward. Yeah the whole thing is juicier. Its been the trend on the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looks like it also amped up QPF totals a bit further westward. Did up here, .50" to .75" rough numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The upstream ridging is ever so much stronger on the 00z ECMWF... the end result is more northern and southern stream s/w phasing because is speeds up the progression of the northern stream s/w. EDIT: Actually on second look it doesn't look substantially different, and actually the 500 hPa vorticity is less phased between the two s/w. Its interesting that the MSLP is further north and deeper which seems to be a reflection of a slightly stronger 300 hPa jet streak to the NE which enhances the thermally indirect circulation driving lift and precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Will what are we looking at for a start/stop time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Will what are we looking at for a start/stop time frame? For BOS it has maybe early-mid Afternoon as start and then its over by 6-7am Sunday. The heaviest snow in BOS is probably 03z to 09z. (10pm-4am) But the steady stuff is probably going by early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Great, thanks very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Will, don't mean to bother you, though what does this mean for Amherst, NH? Local mets are saying we won't really get snow until around 8 pm and it will go until about 11am. Total around 4-8 inches? Usually that means around 4.5 inches is that about right? Thinking conservative if we get dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Will, don't mean to bother you, though what does this mean for Amherst, NH? Local mets are saying we won't really get snow until around 8 pm and it will go until about 11am. Total around 4-8 inches? Usually that means around 4.5 inches is that about right? Thinking conservative if we get dry slot.No. Think 8-12. Probably closer to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 No. Think 8-12. Probably closer to 10. After the 00Z suite of model runs, I'd have to agree with the 8-12" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Man 6z NAM is a much better hit up here...lol at 0.75-1" QPF all the way up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 06Z GFS increasing QPF even more over SE CT, RI, and Cape/Islands. Everywhere else seems pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS is 6" - 8" of snow and then 0.6" - 0.8" of Rain for most. Horrible run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nice to see everything pretty much held serve trackwise overnight..6-10 at least with mixing only far SE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I admit I'm surprised how juicy things are..1.25+ qpf. That's impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nice to see everything pretty much held serve trackwise overnight..6-10 at least with mixing only far SE.. ????? Don't you go to bed at 9:00p.m.? Nothing held serve from the last things you saw before then. Everything came northwest by a fair margin. Either way, it looks like we all get a little snow in the forecast which is a very, very good thing. Coldest morning of the season here at the Pit. 8.7/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nice thermal gradient along the NH/ME coast during the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The only thing allowing us to mix is the track of the 850mb low which travels right over Cape Cod, MA giving mixing to everyone southeast of a BOS to PVD corridor. I would got with 6" in the city of BOS and PVD and 12" to the northwest of that corridor, while giving 3" to the Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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